A recent study conducted by the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs found that the influence of conservative media figure Tucker Carlson is particularly visible among younger Republican voters, where strong support for him persists despite concerns surrounding his positions toward Israel and Jewish communities.
Researcher Irwin J. Yitzhak Mansdorf explained in a report published on The Times of Israel that democratic systems often experience a paradox in which candidates holding controversial or hard line positions on certain issues can still gain broad support if their messaging resonates emotionally with voters.
Mansdorf noted that this phenomenon, traditionally observed on the left side of the American political spectrum, now appears to be emerging among Republican voters as well. He said Carlson’s growing popularity reflects a shift within the Republican base.
The researchers conducted a survey involving 561 Republican respondents balanced by age and gender between 21 and 22 January. The poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The results revealed a clear generational divide.
Among Republicans under the age of 44, more than 55 percent believed Tucker Carlson could be a potential presidential candidate, while 58 percent said they would vote for him if he chose to run.
Among Republicans aged 45 and older, the figures were significantly lower. Only 38 percent believed Carlson would run for president, and 41 percent said they would vote for him.
The report indicated that this generational gap does not necessarily translate into opposition toward Israel or Jewish communities. Both younger and older Republicans expressed strong support for Israel, although the younger group showed relatively lower levels of support.
Among Republicans under 44, about 55 percent described support for Israel as very important or extremely important, compared with 69 percent among older Republicans.
However, the report highlighted a concerning indicator regarding perceptions of Jews as a threat to the American way of life. According to the findings, 45 percent of Republicans under the age of 44 expressed high levels of concern about Jews, compared with only 23 percent among older Republicans.
Mansdorf said this percentage suggests that some younger voters may be receptive to narratives portraying Jews as a societal problem, even if they do not consider themselves anti Semitic.
The researcher linked the phenomenon to political psychology, noting that voters often focus more on a candidate’s overall message or public persona rather than on specific policy positions. This behaviour is associated with mechanisms such as the halo effect and emotional reasoning, which can reduce the impact of concerning views toward Israel or Jewish communities when voters make their decisions.
Mansdorf warned that the real risk for Israel and American Jewish communities is not necessarily the immediate loss of political support, but rather the gradual decline of Israel’s importance as a decisive political issue.
In such circumstances, he explained, support may no longer be strong enough to influence voter behaviour when faced with charismatic candidates who promote extreme populist narratives.
The report also emphasised the importance of confronting candidates with controversial positions through consistent and objective scrutiny. It referred to what is known as the horn effect, which shows that clearly exposed negative traits can reduce a candidate’s appeal without the need for exaggerated attacks or sensational media campaigns.
The report concluded that Republican support for Israel has not collapsed, and younger Republicans are not necessarily hostile toward Israel or Jewish communities. However, the psychological mechanisms that allow voters to overlook concerning positions are already operating and appear to be stronger among the rising generation.
