The Israeli nuclear reactor in the Negev Desert has once again returned to the centre of regional tension after US President Donald Trump warned on Saturday of what he described as a “very powerful strike” against Iran, while hinting at the possible targeting of areas and groups that had not previously been considered.
The threatening tone echoes earlier Iranian warnings that any attempt by the United States and Israel to move towards destabilising the government in Tehran through armed chaos would provoke retaliation, including the targeting of the Dimona nuclear reactor and regional energy infrastructure.
The website Iran Nuances, affiliated with the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, quoted an Iranian military official on 5 March as saying that activating a “regime overthrow plan” would push Tehran to strike the Dimona reactor, adding: “This is a scenario we have already prepared for.”
Israel’s Highly Secretive Nuclear Programme
Although the occupation state has never officially acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons, most international estimates suggest it maintains a nuclear arsenal.
Because Israel has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, an international agreement designed to limit the spread of nuclear weapons, its nuclear programme is widely regarded as one of the most secretive weapons programmes in the world, according to a report by the BBC.
Information leaked to the British newspaper The Sunday Times in the mid-1980s by former reactor technician Mordechai Vanunu prompted a reassessment of earlier estimates of Israel’s nuclear arsenal. By 2003, the stockpile was estimated to contain at least 100 nuclear warheads and possibly as many as 200.
In June 2025, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute included Israel in its list of nuclear-armed states, concluding that it had stockpiled fissile material sufficient to produce up to 200 nuclear warheads.
In 1979, a mysterious double flash detected above the South Atlantic Ocean raised suspicions of a secret nuclear test, with allegations that Israel and apartheid-era South Africa were involved.
The Dimona reactor, officially known as the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Centre, is located in the Negev Desert around 30 kilometres south-east of Beersheba. It was constructed in the late 1950s with French assistance.
How Could a Radioactive Dust Cloud Form?
From a scientific standpoint, bombing a nuclear reactor would not produce a nuclear explosion similar to an atomic bomb, since the fuel used in reactors is not enriched to the level required to trigger a military nuclear detonation. The real danger lies in breaching the reactor structure or damaging nuclear fuel storage facilities.
According to a report by the US Atomic Energy Agency, if an attack were to penetrate the defensive systems protecting the reactor, heavy water within the facility could be dispersed, triggering explosions and fires involving components of the nuclear fuel.
In such a scenario, radioactive materials could form a cloud of hazardous particles carried by the wind away from Dimona. These particles may contain dangerous elements such as plutonium, caesium, and radioactive iodine, which could spread over long distances depending on wind direction.
Because the Dimona reactor is located in the Negev Desert, where prevailing winds often move from west to east, any radioactive leak could potentially spread towards Jordanian territory and possibly reach parts of northern Saudi Arabia. Contamination could also affect areas of the southern West Bank as well as significant regions within the occupation state itself.
Military Consequences of Targeting the Reactor
Despite possessing missiles capable of reaching the Dimona reactor, it remains unlikely that Iran would attempt such a strike. Targeting a facility of this scale and sensitivity would represent an unprecedented escalation in the region’s military conflict.
Such an attack would be considered a crossing of red lines and could prompt Israel and the United States to activate the highest levels of military deterrence under what is known as the “Samson Option”, a strategic doctrine based on overwhelming retaliation if the state faces an existential threat.
This scenario could also compel regional and international powers to intervene directly, not only in support of the occupation state but also to prevent the collapse of the global nuclear security system.
Economic Consequences
Among the potential repercussions is the likelihood that confirmation of radioactive contamination would shock global markets. Oil prices could surge sharply and potentially reach record levels.
Could the Reactor Actually Be Hit?
The Dimona reactor is buried deep underground and protected by extremely thick reinforced concrete layers designed to withstand explosions and penetration. These fortifications make the facility resistant to conventional attacks and provide protection even against some advanced warheads.
The area surrounding Dimona is also protected by a multilayered air defence system. Penetrating these layers would require an extremely complex saturation attack that would be difficult to execute successfully.
Striking a facility like Dimona with such defences would require a missile with exceptional penetration capability and an extremely precise warhead. The circular error probability would need to be less than five metres. Even with such accuracy, there would still be no guarantee that the reactor could be destroyed.
An Ageing Nuclear Facility
One of the main sources of concern is the age of the reactor itself. The facility began operating more than six decades ago, making it one of the oldest functioning reactors in the world. According to reports published by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, former Israeli experts have warned that the reactor suffers from what they described as “technological ageing”, including cracks recorded in its steel structure.
Although the occupation authorities have carried out maintenance and upgrades over the years, the reactor’s age continues to raise questions about its resilience in the event of a direct attack or even a powerful nearby explosion.
Syrian Missile Incident Near the Reactor
The current escalation in the region is not the first time concerns have been raised regarding the safety of the Dimona reactor. In April 2022, former Israeli war minister Avigdor Lieberman called for an examination of Israel’s defence readiness in the event of escalation with Syria or Iran.
His remarks followed reports that a Syrian missile had landed near the Dimona nuclear reactor. According to the Hebrew newspaper The Jerusalem Post, the incident revealed the potential danger of such confrontations, noting at the time: “Had the missile fallen inside the reactor complex, Israelis would have awakened to a completely different reality.”
Signs the Reactor Remains Active
Although details of Dimona’s internal operations remain largely unknown, the facility has continued to attract attention in recent years, according to a report published by Anadolu Agency.
Reports and satellite images released in 2021 indicated that the reactor remains active. They pointed to extensive construction and excavation works inside and around the site. The report also described boxes observed inside two rectangular pits with concrete foundations, suggesting they may be used for burying nuclear waste.
Nuclear Material Production Cycle
The reactor is believed to be capable of producing approximately nine kilograms of plutonium annually. This amount is considered sufficient to manufacture a single nuclear bomb with an explosive yield of around 20 kilotons.
The plutonium extracted from spent fuel is separated in specialised facilities and later used in nuclear warheads that can be stored or prepared for missile delivery.
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