Despite possessing one of the largest missile arsenals in the Middle East, the pace of missiles launched by Iran towards the Israeli occupation has noticeably declined during the recent hours of the war. At the same time, the number of drones used in attacks has risen significantly, raising questions about whether Iran is facing depletion in its missile stockpile or deliberately shifting its method of confrontation.
In exclusive remarks to Arabi21, Mehdi Azizi, Head of the Foreign News Desk at ANA News Agency affiliated with the Islamic Azad University, offered a different interpretation of these developments. He emphasised that what is happening does not reflect a decline in Iran’s military capabilities, but rather a calculated shift in battlefield management based on combining missiles and drones to prolong the confrontation and exhaust the military and economic capacities of adversaries.
Azizi explained that Iran’s missile programme has long been one of the central pillars of Tehran’s defence doctrine. For years, Iran has invested heavily in developing diverse missile systems to compensate for the aerial and technological superiority held by the United States and Israel.
Western military estimates indicate that Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, including thousands of short and medium-range missiles capable of reaching targets hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away.
He added that the arsenal includes several types of missiles developed by Iran over the past decades, such as the Kheibar, Qadr, Emad, Shahab 3 and Khorramshahr missiles. Some of these missiles have a range of up to two thousand kilometres, placing most of the Israeli-occupied territories within their operational reach.
Azizi also pointed out that Tehran continues to develop more advanced generations of these missiles. Some are described as hypersonic, meaning they are capable of flying at speeds exceeding five times the speed of sound, which makes interception by air defence systems significantly more difficult.
Decline in Missile Numbers
Azizi continued that despite these capabilities, data from the first days of the war indicates a gradual decline in the number of missiles launched.
According to the figures he provided, Iran launched approximately 350 missiles on the first day of the confrontation. The number then fell to 175 missiles on the second day, followed by 120 on the third day, 50 on the fourth, 40 on the fifth, 32 on the sixth, 28 on the seventh, and around 15 missiles on the eighth day.
Azizi believes that this decrease does not necessarily mean that Iran is facing a shortage of missiles. Instead, it may be part of a military strategy aimed at carefully managing combat resources while employing other tools that are less costly and more capable of exhausting the enemy.
He explained that drones have begun playing an increasingly significant role in Iranian attacks, with their numbers rising noticeably during the same period.
According to the figures he cited, Iran launched approximately 294 drones on the first day. The number then surged to 541 drones on the second day, while attacks using this type of weapon continued at a high pace in the following days.
Economic Advantage
Azizi interpreted this shift as providing Iran with both economic and military advantages. The cost of manufacturing a single drone may not exceed tens of thousands of dollars, while intercepting it with an air defence missile could cost between one and two million dollars.
He said that this equation makes drones an effective tool for draining the financial and military resources of the opponent.
This strategy, he explained, is based on a simple principle: forcing air defence systems to consume large quantities of expensive interceptor missiles to counter low cost targets. Over time, this could exhaust those missile stocks, especially if attacks continue for a prolonged period.
He also noted that the use of drones is not limited to exhausting air defences. They can also disrupt surveillance and early warning systems, particularly when launched in large numbers and at closely timed intervals, increasing the difficulty of intercepting them all simultaneously.
Cluster Munitions
In a related context, Azizi referred to indications that other types of weapons are being used in the current war, including missiles equipped with cluster munitions.
These weapons explode in the air and release a large number of small bombs that spread across a wide area before falling to the ground.
The use of such munitions complicates the task of air defence systems because the target is no longer a single missile that can be intercepted, but dozens of smaller projectiles dispersed in the air after the warhead detonates. Some of these submunitions may also fail to explode upon impact, creating a long term danger in the areas where they fall.
Azizi believes that Iran’s military strategy in this war reflects Tehran’s experience in managing asymmetric warfare. It relies on a mixture of different weapons to achieve both military and economic impact.
Rather than relying solely on intensive missile strikes, Iran seeks to combine ballistic missiles, drones and simultaneous attacks from multiple directions. This increases pressure on air defence systems and makes intercepting all targets far more difficult.
Tehran also possesses an extensive network of underground missile bases, commonly referred to in the media as “missile cities”. These fortified facilities contain launch platforms, missile storage depots and maintenance centres, providing the Iranian missile programme with a high degree of resilience even if other military sites come under attack.
What Are Cluster Missiles?
On the other hand, the spokesperson for the Israeli occupation army, Nadav Shoshani, stated that Iran had used cluster munitions in several simultaneous attacks.
He claimed that the use of such weapons against populated areas could constitute a war crime, according to his statement, adding that military authorities are closely monitoring developments related to this weapon.
Missiles equipped with cluster warheads operate differently from conventional missiles. The warhead detonates at a certain altitude in the air, releasing dozens of small bombs known as submunitions.
After spreading across a wide area, these projectiles fall separately towards the ground, allowing them to cover a larger target area compared with the traditional explosion of a single missile.
These weapons are among the most controversial munitions used in armed conflicts because they are designed to strike multiple targets simultaneously rather than precisely hitting a single point. The wide dispersal of small bombs can also cause extensive damage to infrastructure and civilian areas.
In addition, cluster warheads present a particular challenge for air defence systems such as the Iron Dome or the Arrow system. These systems must deal with numerous small projectiles at the same time rather than intercepting a single missile, increasing the likelihood that some munitions will reach the ground.
The greatest danger lies in the possibility that some of these small bombs may fail to explode upon impact, remaining on the ground as unexploded ordnance and posing a long term threat even after military operations have ended.
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