Israeli Channel 12 reported on Saturday that three factors could determine the duration of the war being waged by Washington and Tel Aviv against Tehran: oil prices, the number of American military deaths, and public opinion inside the United States.
The privately owned channel claimed that “Israel and the United States have identified growing cracks within the Iranian regime, reflected in the fact that Iranian officials are not operating in coordination with one another”.
It added that “the American objective is confined to destroying the military and ruling infrastructure of the regime”.
According to the channel, the next step would be “to call on the Iranian people to take to the streets, with support from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), while anticipating defections”.
Regarding the future of the war, the channel said that US President Donald Trump “has a unilateral exit vision, after which he is likely to declare victory if the regime does not fall”.
It explained that Trump “is not publicly using the goal of toppling the regime”, in reference to uncertainty over whether that outcome can actually be achieved.
The channel concluded by stressing that “the three criteria expected to determine the duration of the battle are oil prices, the number of losses in the American army, and public opinion in the United States”.
Rising Oil Prices
Oil prices rose by more than 10 percent on Friday as a result of the American and Israeli war on Iran, surpassing the US$94 mark.
Estimates cited by Bloomberg indicate that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices to US$108 per barrel.
Around 20 percent of global oil and gas trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to a large share of liquefied natural gas shipments heading to Asia and Europe.
Trump is also facing declining American public support for the war on Iran, which has so far resulted in the deaths of six American soldiers and left 18 others seriously wounded, according to what has been announced to date.
According to the American outlet Axios, six in ten Americans oppose the continuation of this war.
Since 28 February, Israel and the United States have been waging war on Iran, resulting in the killing of hundreds of Iranians, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior security officials. Tehran has responded by launching missile and drone attacks on Tel Aviv.
Iran has also targeted what it describes as “American interests” in the Gulf states, Iraq, and Jordan with missiles and drones. Some of these attacks, however, have caused deaths and injuries and inflicted damage on civilian facilities, drawing condemnation from the targeted Arab states, which have called for an end to these assaults.
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