An Israeli writer has argued that the time has come to redraw the map of the Middle East and bring an end to the century-old Sykes-Picot framework.
Meir Suissa wrote in an article published by the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth that the weakening of Iran’s regional power could open the door to the collapse of the traditional nation state system in the region. According to him, this shift may pave the way for tribal alliances, Kurdish ambitions, and a new regional reality shaped by the United States and Israel across the Middle East.
Suissa stated that what he described as the Israeli-American war against what he called the Iranian-led “axis of evil” is not merely a military confrontation. Rather, he suggested that it may represent the conflict that finally erases the map drawn by Britain and France in 1916.
He wrote that the region is witnessing, in real time, the collapse of the Sykes-Picot agreements and a return to what he described as the original structure of the Middle East, portraying it as a mosaic of tribes, clans, and local emirates.
Claims of a Weakening Iranian Sphere
Suissa claimed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, driven by what he described as justified paranoia, recognised something the West either failed to understand or refused to acknowledge. According to him, the Shia imperial structure built by Iran was artificial and fragile.
He argued that once the military strength of Iran’s regional proxies began to fracture, ideology alone could no longer control territory. Without what he described as the “boots of the Revolutionary Guard” in Beirut, Damascus, and Sana’a, he claimed that the Shia axis would return to what he described as its historical position as a persecuted and weak minority within a hostile Sunni majority.
Suissa further argued that the Islamic Revolution, which sought to export Shiism as a dominant regional force, had chosen what he described as the wrong enemy, referring to Jews. According to him, that decision may ultimately determine the fate of the project itself.
A “Sykes Picot 2026” Scenario
The Israeli writer suggested that what he described as an inevitable conclusion is already becoming visible on the horizon. If a change of regime were to occur in Tehran, he argued that the region could witness the opening of what he called a historic peace conference under the banner of “Sykes Picot 2026”.
He also claimed that Israel has effectively become the contractor executing what he described as the interests of the Sunni world.
According to Suissa, several Arab states he labelled as “moderate” have long quietly hoped for the dismantling of what he called the Shia crescent but have been unwilling to act openly. He claimed that these states may now find their objectives delivered to them.
However, Suissa acknowledged that such developments would come at a cost to the current regional order. He argued that Arab and Islamic states that present themselves as Western style nation states could lose relevance if tribal and clan structures once again emerge as the primary units of governance.
Kurdish Role in a Changing Region
Suissa also pointed to the Kurds as a group he believes holds a strategic advantage in the emerging regional order.
He claimed that the Kurds possess what he described as a coherent national narrative, connected territory, and strong determination. According to him, they are among the few actors in the evolving Middle East who do not rely on extremist religious ideology or on what he called arbitrary colonial borders.
He suggested that Kurdish actors could potentially play a key role in triggering broader regime changes in Iran and Syria.
A Region Reshaped by Power Politics
Suissa argued that if such a transformation were to occur, it would not be European diplomats who redraw the map of the Middle East with rulers and pens. Instead, he said the United States and Israel would shape a new regional reality that acknowledges the dismantling of existing structures and their reconstruction.
He suggested that Lebanon and Syria could become the first arenas where this transformation is tested.
In his concluding remarks, Suissa said that it may be time to update global atlases. The territory stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean, he claimed, could eventually fragment into several smaller states that may be more stable and built around tribal identity.
Regarding Hamas, Suissa argued that the movement would likely remain a persistent source of tension but would not play a central role in the emerging regional order.
He concluded that Hamas belongs to what he described as the collapsing old framework that attempted to impose a rigid religious doctrine on a changing reality. According to him, as the region restructures around interests, nations, and tribal identities, Hamas may remain a bitter remnant of a past era, particularly if it loses the financial lifelines that once sustained it.
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