With the outbreak of the new war on 28 February 2026 between the occupation state and the United States on one side and Iran on the other, a decisive question has emerged: does the Israeli occupation possess a sufficient stockpile of interceptor missiles to confront drones and ballistic missiles?
The occupation state and the United States launched a joint attack on Saturday targeting Iranian missile platforms and nuclear facilities, aiming to dismantle Iran’s ballistic capabilities. Iran responded by launching Operation True Promise, firing hundreds of missiles and drones towards occupied territory and American bases in the Gulf. The retaliatory exchanges reportedly resulted in the deaths of five American soldiers and injuries to 15 others.
The question of interceptor stockpiles has grown in urgency amid warnings that any shortage could increase human and material losses and place pressure on the occupation’s strategy of destroying missiles before launch. This concern follows the June 2025 conflict, which lasted 12 days and saw the launch of hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, leading to significant depletion of Israeli and American interceptor reserves and raising fears of defensive collapse under sustained missile saturation.
False Reassurance
The New York Times quoted Ran Kochav, former commander of the occupation’s Air and Missile Defence forces, responding to optimistic statements in Israeli media by saying: “I heard generals, journalists and ministers say: no, we are fine.” He added, “It is false reassurance.”
During the previous conflict, the United States reportedly expended around 150 interceptors from the THAAD system, representing between 14 and 20 percent of its total stockpile, at a cost of 1.17 billion US dollars, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The occupation state used hundreds of interceptor missiles from its various systems during the previous war, resulting in a sharp shortage in stockpiles, according to another report from the same centre.
Iran adapted during the June 2025 conflict by launching missiles from areas further east and seeking to exploit gaps in Israeli defences through smaller, more frequent salvos delivered around the clock, thereby exhausting air defence systems.
Multi Layered Defence Under Pressure
The occupation relies on a multi layered air defence system often described as among the most advanced globally, yet limitations in munitions remain a central challenge.
The Arrow system, known in Hebrew as Hetz, is designed to intercept long range ballistic missiles such as Iran’s Shahab and Fateh missiles. During the June 2025 conflict, the occupation consumed large quantities of Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors. Production of Arrow 3 is reportedly limited to around 100 units per year, and replenishing stockpiles could take more than 18 months.
The David’s Sling system addresses medium range missiles between 100 and 200 kilometres and drones. It was considered effective in the previous war but faces munitions shortages, particularly after Iran rebuilt its stockpile to approximately 2,000 “heavy” missiles by December 2025.
The Iron Dome system focuses on short range rockets and projectiles. Despite its effectiveness, it is not designed to counter large scale Iranian attacks. Intensive use has raised concerns that munitions could be exhausted within days if the current rate of fire persists. The occupation introduced a laser based Iron Dome system in late 2025 to reduce reliance on conventional munitions, though it remains in early stages.
The United States has also deployed THAAD batteries in occupied territory to reinforce defences. However, American stockpiles are themselves low following the previous war, with warnings of potential munitions depletion within weeks if the conflict endures. Israeli defence analyst Ehud Eilam told Fox News: “There is a limit to the number of THAAD missiles that can be used. These are not systems that can be reproduced overnight.”
International Warnings and Indicators of Risk
American officials have described the situation as critical, although precise stockpile figures remain classified.
Fox News warned, citing officials and analysts, that continued American and Israeli strikes against Iran could rapidly drain US interceptor inventories, given their use in protecting Middle East bases and supporting Ukraine, combined with production constraints.
The network noted that any major escalation could render air defence missiles the decisive factor in the conflict, especially as Iran possesses a substantial arsenal and the capacity to widen confrontation regionally, with potential military and economic repercussions extending to global energy markets.
An article in Foreign Policy cautioned that the American Israeli campaign against Iran could quickly encounter shortages of interceptor missiles and precision munitions, similar to the 2025 war when the occupation nearly depleted its Arrow 3 stockpile and was compelled to seek urgent American support.
Iran appears to be betting on saturating defences and exhausting stockpiles, while interceptor production remains slow and costly, making shortages a potentially decisive factor that could prolong the war despite technological superiority.
In this context, concern is reportedly rising within the US Department of Defense and among some members of President Donald Trump’s administration over the possibility of the conflict spiralling out of control. The Washington Post cited individuals familiar with the situation as describing the atmosphere as tense and filled with uncertainty, with fears among senior leaders that the fighting could continue for weeks, further draining limited air defence munitions.
A previous Financial Times report quoted the chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries as confirming that interceptor missile production lines are operating in three shifts at full capacity to replenish partially depleted stockpiles.
Iran’s Stockpile and Strategy of Attrition
Iran is estimated to possess between 1,500 and 2,000 medium range missiles capable of reaching occupied territory and the Gulf, having rebuilt its capabilities after losing between 35 and 40 percent of its total arsenal in 2025.
Within the first 24 hours of the new war, Iran reportedly launched between 400 and 500 missiles and drones, signalling a strategy aimed at rapidly exhausting Israeli defences.
The New York Times reported that the Israeli side is currently focusing on targeting Iranian launch platforms before missile deployment in order to reduce reliance solely on interception.
The occupation relies heavily on swift American support, though US production capacity remains limited. A former US Secretary of Defense previously stated that Iran produces multiples of the number of ballistic missiles compared to the number of interceptor missiles produced by the United States, potentially affecting other commitments such as Ukraine.
Although the United States and its allies intercepted most incoming fire, some attacks succeeded in penetrating defences, including a missile barrage targeting the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.
Iran seeks to exhaust its adversary through the intensity of launches, while the occupation prioritises pre emptive strikes to destroy launch platforms before use. As the confrontation continues, the ability to replenish stockpiles may determine the trajectory of the conflict, amid growing international concern over wider regional escalation.
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