The Israeli newspaper Maariv has reported growing concern within occupation circles over the possibility that US President Donald Trump could abandon a path of confrontation with Iran in favour of a rapid and superficial agreement, similar to what occurred with the Ansar Allah Houthi group.
Israeli security sources expressed fears that any such agreement would be flawed and would fail to address Iran’s ballistic missile programme or Tehran’s regional allies. Such an outcome, they warned, could provide the Iranian regime with additional financial resources, thereby strengthening its capabilities.
The newspaper noted that the harshest scenario would involve a partial agreement that releases funds to Iran and fortifies the regime. It described the worst-case scenario as a limited US strike followed by a poor deal, leaving the occupation state exposed to Iranian missile retaliation.
According to the report, the preferred scenario from Tel Aviv’s perspective would be a broad US military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, potentially leading to the overthrow of the regime. Another scenario considered relatively acceptable in Tel Aviv would involve maintaining the status quo through sustained international pressure, sanctions and blockade until the regime collapses internally.
Third Round of Indirect Talks in Geneva
These developments coincide with the launch on Thursday in Geneva of a third round of indirect talks between Washington and Tehran within the negotiation track related to Iran’s nuclear programme, mediated by the Sultanate of Oman.
The Iranian delegation is headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and includes Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi, alongside a number of senior diplomats and technical experts in nuclear and legal affairs, including foreign ministry deputies responsible for political and international files. The Iranian delegation is expected to focus on sanctions relief and what it describes as a “gradual mechanism” regarding nuclear commitments.
On the American side, the delegation is led by special envoy to the negotiations Steve Witkoff and includes Jared Kushner, a White House adviser and son in law of Trump’s daughter, in addition to a team of national security advisers and technical experts involved in nuclear non proliferation matters.
The American position centres on ensuring long term restrictions on uranium enrichment and preventing any potential pathway towards the development of a nuclear weapon.
The talks are being conducted indirectly, with the Omani mediator transferring messages and proposals between the two sides. This round is seen as a test of the parties’ willingness to move beyond the exchange of general proposals towards detailed negotiations over the provisions of a potential agreement.
Trump’s State of the Union Remarks
In his State of the Union address, President Donald Trump stated that Iran “at this very moment is once again seeking to achieve its nuclear ambitions”, adding that Washington had not heard the “secret words: no nuclear weapons ever”.
Trump accused Tehran of developing missiles “that can threaten Europe and our bases abroad”, asserting that it is “working on building missiles that will soon be capable of reaching the United States of America”.
The website Axios cited Steve Witkoff as saying in a private session that the United States wants any future nuclear agreement to remain in force indefinitely.
The international agreement concluded in 2015, from which Trump withdrew in 2018, had stipulated that certain restrictions would expire after specified periods.
