A report published by The New York Times has revealed that in early January, as Iran faced widespread protests across the country and threats of strikes from the United States, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei turned to one of his most loyal and trusted aides to take the helm: Ali Larijani, the country’s most senior national security official.
According to the report, since then Larijani, 67, a veteran politician, former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and current head of the Supreme National Security Council, has effectively emerged as the figure managing the affairs of the state. His rise has coincided with the diminishing role of President Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon turned politician who has endured a difficult year in office and has publicly described himself as “a doctor, not a politician”, cautioning that he should not be expected to resolve the vast array of Iran’s challenges.
The newspaper cited interviews with six senior Iranian officials, including one linked to the Supreme Leader’s office, three members of the Revolutionary Guard, former Iranian diplomats, and reports from Iranian media outlets. These sources described internal deliberations within Iran’s leadership amid threats of war from the administration of US President Donald Trump.
Expanding Authority Amid Internal and External Pressure
Over recent months, Larijani’s powers have gradually expanded. He oversaw the suppression of recent protests calling for an end to Islamic rule, reportedly using lethal force. He is currently tasked with containing domestic opposition, coordinating with influential allies such as Russia, and engaging regional actors including Qatar and Oman. He also supervises nuclear negotiations with Washington and is developing contingency plans for governing the country in the event of a potential war with the United States, as Washington reinforces its military presence in the region.
In an interview with Al Jazeera during a visit to Doha this month, Larijani stated: “We are prepared in our country. We are certainly stronger than before. Over the past seven or eight months, we have prepared. We identified our weaknesses and addressed them. We do not seek war and will not initiate it, but if it is imposed on us, we will respond.”
According to the six officials and members of the Guard, Khamenei has instructed Larijani and a small circle of trusted political and military figures to ensure the survival of the Islamic Republic in the face of any US or Israeli strikes, as well as potential assassination attempts targeting senior leaders, including the Supreme Leader himself.
Political analyst Nasser Imani said in a phone interview from Tehran that the relationship between Khamenei and Larijani is longstanding and close. He added that the Supreme Leader turned to Larijani during a severe military and security crisis. “The Leader fully trusts Larijani. He believes he is the right man for this sensitive phase because of his political record, intelligence, and knowledge. He relies on him for reports and practical advice. His role will be very prominent if war breaks out.”
Succession Planning and Continuity of Command
Larijani hails from a prominent political and religious family and served as Speaker of Parliament for 12 years. In 2021, he was tasked with negotiating a 25 year comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with China worth billions of dollars.
According to the same sources, Khamenei issued a series of directives, including establishing four successive layers of succession for military and governmental posts that he personally appoints. Leaders were instructed to name up to four deputies each. A narrow circle of trusted figures has been authorised to make decisions in the event of communication being severed with the Supreme Leader or in the case of his assassination.
During a 12 day period of concealment in June last year amid war with Israel, Khamenei reportedly named three potential successors, whose identities have not been made public. Larijani is unlikely to be among them, as he is not a senior Shia cleric, a fundamental requirement for assuming the post.
Nevertheless, Larijani remains within the trusted inner circle close to the Supreme Leader. This circle includes his top military adviser and former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the current Speaker of Parliament and former Guard commander Brigadier General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, whom Khamenei has effectively appointed as his deputy to lead the armed forces during wartime, and his office director, cleric Ali Asghar Hejazi.
Some of these arrangements followed lessons drawn from a surprise Israeli attack in June, which reportedly eliminated much of Iran’s senior military command within the early hours of the conflict. After the ceasefire, Khamenei appointed Larijani as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and established a new National Defence Council headed by Admiral Ali Shamkhani to oversee wartime military affairs.
Military Readiness and Regional Escalation
Vali Nasr, an expert on Iranian affairs at Johns Hopkins University, said that Khamenei is confronting the current reality while anticipating the possibility of his own martyrdom. He is seeking to protect his system and legacy by distributing authority in preparation for succession and war, aware that succession may arise from conflict.
According to the sources, Iran is operating on the assumption that US military strikes are imminent and inevitable, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and nuclear negotiations. All armed forces have reportedly been placed on maximum alert, prepared for fierce resistance.
Ballistic missile platforms have been deployed along the western border with Iraq and on the southern coasts overlooking the Arabian Gulf, within range of US bases and other regional targets.
In recent weeks, Iran has periodically closed its airspace to conduct missile tests and has held military exercises in the Gulf, temporarily closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most vital maritime routes for global energy supplies.
In the event of war, special police units, intelligence personnel, and battalions from the Basij militia affiliated with the Guard would be deployed across major cities to establish checkpoints, prevent internal unrest, and track individuals suspected of links to foreign intelligence services.
Political Survival Scenarios
The Iranian leadership is also preparing for its own political survival. Discussions have reportedly taken place regarding scenarios for governing the country if the Supreme Leader and senior officials are killed. Potential candidates to assume control include Larijani, followed by Ghalibaf and former president Hassan Rouhani.
However, their records may limit popular acceptance, whether due to allegations of financial corruption or complicity in human rights violations, including the reported killing of at least 7,000 unarmed protesters over three days recently.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran programme at International Crisis Group, stated that while contingency plans have been developed, the consequences of any war with the United States remain unpredictable. He added that despite his reduced public appearances and increased frailty, the Supreme Leader remains the “glue” binding the system together, and his absence would make maintaining cohesion difficult.
Diplomatic Channels and Delegated Authority
Over the past month, Larijani’s media presence has increased significantly, while President Pezeshkian’s visibility has diminished. Larijani travelled to Russia to consult with President Vladimir Putin, met Middle Eastern leaders, engaged in meetings involving American and Iranian nuclear negotiators, gave extended interviews to domestic and foreign media, and remained active on social media.
In contrast, Pezeshkian appeared willing to delegate authority. Iranian media reported that during a government meeting he suggested to Larijani lifting internet restrictions due to their negative impact on e commerce, an acknowledgement that even the president requires Larijani’s approval to execute certain decisions.
In January, during the crackdown, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff attempted to contact Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, according to Iranian officials and a former diplomat. President Trump had declared that he would strike Iran if protesters were executed, and Witkoff sought clarification on whether such executions were planned.
To avoid misunderstandings, Araghchi contacted the Iranian president to enquire about issuing a response. Pezeshkian reportedly said he did not know and instructed him to consult Larijani for authorisation.
