A prominent American security expert has indicated that the scale of forces recently deployed by the United States in the Middle East points to a very high probability of a military strike against Iran.
According to Professor Robert Pape, a political scientist at University of Chicago and a security specialist, the current deployment represents between 40 and 50 percent of the total US air power available worldwide.
These remarks were cited in an article published by the Israeli newspaper Maariv, written by journalist Eli Leon. Pape, who is also the founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, noted that the scale of air forces presently positioned in the region resembles US preparations for the Iraq wars in 1991 and 2003, and that the build up is still increasing.
He stated: “The United States has never deployed a force of this size against a potential adversary without carrying out air strikes.”
Unprecedented Military Build Up Around Iran
The article noted that updated and detailed data through mid February 2026 provides a comprehensive picture of an unprecedented American presence surrounding Iran’s borders.
According to information and a map published by Pape on the platform X, the military formation includes two carrier strike groups: the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford, stationed in the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. These are accompanied by warships, destroyers, and a submarine positioned at strategic locations across the Arabian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Mediterranean.
Beyond the naval and air components, the regional deployment includes a large fleet of C 17 transport aircraft, dozens of aerial refuelling planes, and advanced intelligence, command, and control systems.
At the same time, dozens of fighter jets have been stationed at various bases in Gulf states and Jordan, including squadrons of F 35A stealth aircraft, F 15E strike fighters, and F 16 jets.
Advanced Air Defence and Operational Readiness
The American air defence network in the region has also expanded significantly, with Patriot missile batteries widely deployed throughout the area, alongside at least one additional advanced THAAD battery stationed in Saudi Arabia or Qatar.
According to Pape’s analysis, this comprehensive military posture reflects practical and advanced preparations in anticipation of the possibility of a preemptive military operation.
