Top UAE astronomers have said the moon will not be visible next Tuesday, 17 February, the day that Saudi Arabia is expected to announce a moon-sighting and the beginning of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
This has prompted speculation that the United Arab Emirates could break with custom and begin Ramadan a day after Saudi Arabia, as diplomatic relations between the two countries continue to deteriorate.
For years Saudi Arabia – home to Islam’s holiest sites – has reported some of its sightings of the crescent moon on days when scientists and astronomers insist it is impossible to see it. Saudi authorities have never addressed these criticisms.
Muslims follow the lunar calendar, which consists of 12 months lasting between 29 and 30 days. The start of the fasting month of Ramadan depends on the sighting of the crescent moon.
Saudi Arabia uses a calendar called the Umm al-Qura, which is based on calculations and marks key dates years in advance.
According to the Umm al-Qura calendar, the first day of Ramadan this year will be Wednesday, 18 February.
But in the UAE, the Sharjah Academy for Astronomy, Space Sciences and Technology (SAASST) at the University of Sharjah announced last week that it will be scientifically impossible to sight the crescent moon on Tuesday, 17 February – even using new technology.
The SAASST said the first day of Ramadan will be Thursday, 19 February.
Separately, Abu Dhabi-based astronomer Mohammad Odeh, director of the International Astronomical Centre in Abu Dhabi and the Islamic Crescent Observation Project (ICOP), has said that the moon will not be visible on Tuesday in the UAE or Saudi Arabia.
“Such reports, if they do occur, definitively confirm the error some individuals may make in mistakenly believing they have sighted a crescent moon that is not present in the sky,” Odeh said.
Moon ‘astronomically impossible to see’
Many experts believe Saudi Arabia will declare Ramadan beginning on Wednesday regardless, as they have often announced sightings in previous years despite astronomers’ insisting the moon was not visible.
Imad Ahmed, founder and director of the New Crescent Society, an astronomy society that specialises in the Islamic calendar in the UK, runs an astronomy programme with the Royal Observatory in Greenwich.
“On Tuesday 17 February 2026, the crescent moon is astronomically impossible to see, whether by high-powered telescopes or by the unaided eye anywhere in the Middle East – indeed, in the whole of Asia, Africa, or Europe,” he told Middle East Eye.
“Nevertheless, we expect Saudi Arabia to claim to see the moon on Tuesday 17 February, despite it being scientifically impossible.”
The UAE, along with many other Muslim-majority countries, especially in the Gulf region, customarily follow Saudi Arabia’s lead with its moon-sightings.
So what will the UAE do this year?
Some experts believe that despite worsening diplomatic relations between the UAE and its much larger neighbour, it will still follow Saudi Arabia.
Ahmed told MEE: “This year we have seen several Emirates-based astronomers confirm in advance that the moon will not be visible on Tuesday, 17 February, anywhere in the Middle East.
“The Senior Moon Sighting Committee of Oman have also announced that the moon is not possible to see on Tuesday.
“However, we have never seen the UAE depart from Saudi Arabia’s Ramadan and Eid dates in the past.”
Ahmed said if Saudi Arabia claims to see the crescent on Tuesday, “we would expect the UAE to commence Ramadan alongside Saudi Arabia, despite the declarations of their own UAE-based astronomers that this would not be scientifically valid”.
This could cause major confusion in contradicting the claims of astronomers in the country.
Approaches elsewhere and local moon-sightings
According to His Majesty’s Nautical Almanac Office in the UK, a government body that produces astronomical data, the moon will not be visible in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.v
Saudi Arabia is not the only country to use a calendar based on calculations – Turkey does so too, but it does not claim moon sightings.
In 2024, both Oman and Jordan did not accept Saudi Arabia’s sighting on 10 March for Ramadan, and began fasting on 12 March instead.
In countries without official moon-sighting bodies, like the UK, many Muslims also follow Saudi Arabia’s lead, although some religious scholars in the Gulf kingdom have urged people elsewhere not to do so.
Increasing numbers of British Muslims are opting for local moon sightings. Ahmed’s New Crescent Society carries out sightings across the country and aims to gather support for a unified Islamic calendar for Britain.
It remains possible that in Saudi Arabia, whose government has never engaged with critics of its moon-sighting practices, the moon-sighting committee will say they have not seen the moon on Tuesday, and that Ramadan will be declared on Thursday.
This would mean a diversion from Saudi Arabia’s pre-determined calendar – which many would see as a historic shift in policy.
