The Wall Street Journal published a report revealing that the Pentagon is taking steps to strengthen the protection of Israel, Arab allies, and United States forces if Iran responds to potential attacks. The newspaper noted that the naval “armada” promised by President Donald Trump has already arrived in the Middle East.
According to the report, which was translated by Arabi21, this powerful naval force is led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, while advanced F-35 fighter jets have moved closer to the region.
Despite these deployments, Trump has not yet clarified whether he intends to use force or how such action would be carried out. United States officials, however, insist that American airstrikes on Iran are not imminent, as the Pentagon is currently relocating additional air defence systems to provide stronger protection for Israel, Arab allies, and United States forces in the event of Iranian retaliation and the outbreak of a potentially prolonged conflict.
Current Capabilities and the Need for Reinforcement
The report noted that United States officials say the American military could carry out limited airstrikes on Iran if the president ordered an attack today. However, they add that the type of “decisive” attack Trump has asked the military to prepare for would likely provoke a proportional Iranian response. This would require the United States to have robust air defences in place to protect Israel and its own forces.
The newspaper explained that the military already maintains air defence assets in the region, including destroyers capable of intercepting aerial threats. Nevertheless, the Pentagon is deploying an additional THAAD battery and Patriot air defence systems at bases hosting United States forces across the Middle East, including in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. This assessment is based on defence officials’ statements, flight tracking data, and satellite imagery.
The report highlighted the technical difference between the two systems. THAAD can intercept ballistic missiles above the Earth’s atmosphere, while Patriot systems defend against lower altitude and shorter range threats.
The newspaper quoted Susan Maloney, a former United States State Department official responsible for Iran policy under the Bush and Obama administrations, as saying that “air defence is the key issue, meaning whether we have sufficient equipment to ensure the protection of our forces and assets in the region from some form of Iranian retaliation”.
Lessons from the “12 Day War” and “Midnight Hammer”
The report stated that the importance of air defences became clear last June, when the United States helped defend Israel against a barrage of Iranian missiles during the so called “12 Day War” with Iran.
At that time, the United States carried out Operation Midnight Hammer against three Iranian nuclear sites, using B-2 bombers and cruise missiles launched from submarines. Iran responded the following day by firing 14 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts the United States air command centre for the region and is used by American warplanes.
According to the newspaper, United States and Qatari Patriot batteries largely intercepted the attack. However, the Pentagon later acknowledged that one Iranian missile struck the base, though it caused no casualties and only minor damage.
The report noted that Trump has not been clear about his objectives regarding Iran. Nevertheless, a broader and more sustained series of American attacks aimed at deterring the Iranian regime from violently suppressing protesters, forcing it to end uranium enrichment, or even toppling the Iranian government, could provoke a far more severe Iranian response this time.
The newspaper quoted General Jason Armagost, deputy commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, speaking to journalists at a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies forum on Thursday. He said that “Midnight Hammer was a very specific mission. It was like a single play in a game, not the entire match”.
Iranian Response Scenarios and Gulf Concerns
Maloney and others told the newspaper that if the United States launches a large scale air campaign, Tehran will respond with the maximum firepower it can muster. This would involve deploying its arsenal of short and medium range ballistic missiles against United States and Israeli targets.
Tehran would also mobilise its proxy forces, directing allied Shiite armed groups to carry out attacks across the region.
The report explained that although Israel has struck Hezbollah in Lebanon and defeated Hamas in Gaza, Tehran could encourage the Houthis in Yemen to target shipping and launch drone and missile attacks against civilian and military infrastructure in the region. Iraqi militias and armed groups in Syria could also carry out attacks.
The newspaper also pointed out that the possibility of renewed United States Iranian confrontation has raised concerns among some Gulf states. Last week, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said they would not allow the United States to use their airspace or territory to attack Iran.
These announcements were intended to distance the Gulf states from Iranian retaliation if the Americans were to strike. Gulf countries are also strengthening their own air defences. Saudi Arabia has purchased seven THAAD batteries, a limited number of which have already been delivered, according to a Gulf official.
At the same time, the newspaper suggested that Iran has been making its own preparations.
It quoted Armagost as saying: “The Iranians will learn from Midnight Hammer. They will learn from Rising Lion, the name of the Israeli air campaign against Iran. They will understand things differently and they will change. So I would say we must be prepared for them to be different”.
Large Scale Military Build Up
The report revealed that the United States has also deployed three squadrons of F-15E fighter jets to Jordan, which could play a role in intercepting Iranian drones. These aircraft targeted Iranian drones when Tehran attacked Israel in April 2024, in what the air force described as the largest air to air engagement with an adversary in more than 50 years.
Several guided missile destroyers capable of neutralising aerial threats have also been moved to the Middle East. According to a naval official and open source imagery, the United States now has eight destroyers positioned to intercept Iranian missiles and drones. This includes two near the Strait of Hormuz, three in the northern Arabian Sea, one near Israel in the Red Sea, and two in the eastern Mediterranean.
Other military preparations are continuing at a rapid pace. On Thursday, six F-35 aircraft from the Vermont Air National Guard were seen landing in the Azores after being redeployed from the Caribbean to a location closer to the Middle East.
The report noted that the Vermont Air National Guard’s F-35s participated in a January operation to detain former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Meanwhile, some United States Navy EA-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft recently departed Puerto Rico and arrived in Spain.
Ammunition Shortages and Production Constraints
The newspaper considered the deployment of the THAAD system to be a particularly strong signal that the United States is preparing for a potential conflict, given that it operates only seven active THAAD batteries. These units have been under significant strain over the past year.
The report quoted Seth Jones, a former Defence Department official, as saying: “Moving Patriot and THAAD is costly. The likelihood of their use starts to rise with this level of movement”.
The newspaper explained that each THAAD battery can carry 48 interceptor missiles distributed across six launchers and requires around 100 soldiers to reload, analyse data, conduct maintenance, and launch interceptors around the clock.
THAAD systems played an important role in protecting Israeli population centres from Iranian attacks over the summer, particularly as Israel’s stockpile of Arrow interceptor missiles declined. However, the United States expended munitions at an enormous rate, firing more than 150 interceptor missiles. This figure represents nearly a quarter of all interceptor missiles the Pentagon has ever purchased.
To rapidly increase production of THAAD interceptors, the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin announced on Thursday that they had signed a framework agreement to quadruple production capacity from 96 to 400 missiles per year.
The announcement came just weeks after another deal to increase Patriot interceptor production. Nevertheless, the newspaper does not expect either agreement to make a significant difference if a conflict breaks out in the coming weeks.
While the United States already had Patriot systems deployed at some Gulf locations, satellite imagery shows that an additional Patriot system was set up at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar over the past week.
In January, the United States military announced the establishment of a coordination cell at the Qatari base aimed at enhancing cooperation on air and missile defence with Gulf partners.
Analysts believe that deploying additional air defences to other bases in the region will help provide better protection for American facilities and population centres. However, they warn that it could also drain units and supplies if a wider conflict erupts.
The report quoted Mara Karlin, who served at the Pentagon under the Bush, Obama, and Biden administrations, as saying: “It is clear that the US military has limited resources, but air defence is a perfect example of where resources are extremely scarce. They are incredibly valuable, and every combatant commander wants more of them”.
