Israeli occupation assessments are increasingly warning that any potential new military confrontation with Iran would be different and more complex than previous rounds, both in terms of the internal front and the resulting economic consequences.
The Hebrew newspaper Haaretz confirmed that any new potential military confrontation with Iran would differ fundamentally from the previous round of fighting, whether in the nature of the attacks or in their impact on the Israeli internal front and the economy.
The newspaper quoted a former Israeli intelligence official, who served in reserve duty over the past two years, as saying that “the next round with Iran will be more complex, after all sides have drawn lessons from the twelve-day war, not Israel alone”.
Haaretz noted that Israeli assessments caution against assuming that any potential American operation against Iran, should US President Donald Trump decide to carry it out, would automatically lead to a scenario similar to what Israel experienced during Operation Am Kalavi in June last year, which ended with a relatively limited and quickly contained Iranian response.
The newspaper pointed out that past experience has shown that methods of warfare do not always repeat themselves, citing the surprise attack carried out by Hamas on 7 October 2023, as well as later surprise Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian missile launch platforms.
Regarding the nature of a potential attack, Haaretz reported, citing an informed source within the American security establishment, that Washington is not considering reliance on air power alone. Instead, it is exploring “covert and innovative methods” to strike Iran, including special operations and the activation of intelligence capabilities. The newspaper added that discussions in the United States following the recent American operation in Venezuela, and the debate surrounding the use of unconventional means, increase the likelihood of a similar special operation being carried out against Iran.
Haaretz also indicated that the objective of any new attack may differ from the previous round. It may no longer be limited to weakening Iran’s missile capabilities or its nuclear programme, but could instead aim to undermine the system itself. This, the newspaper said, makes it difficult to predict the duration or trajectory of any confrontation. It noted that the optimistic scenario assumes a severe American strike leading to a rapid collapse of the system, while the pessimistic scenario warns of a prolonged war of attrition in which Israel could find itself engaged for a period exceeding its current operational capacity.
In this context, Haaretz confirmed that the Israeli Air Force has returned to the readiness levels it maintained prior to 7 October 2023. However, these levels are sufficient for a relatively short war, not for a long-term conflict. The newspaper added that the intense operational activity over the past two years has reduced the service life of aircraft, increasing the cost of any new confrontation.
On the economic front, the newspaper noted that the Israeli economy has demonstrated an ability to function under missile fire, but would pay a heavy price if a new round of fighting were to erupt. This would include the loss of working days, a decline in investor confidence, and increased defence spending. It added that any new confrontation would require adjustments to the 2026 defence budget, raising it to more than 112 billion shekels.
Haaretz further reported that the cost of interception operations during the previous round was estimated at approximately five billion shekels. It noted that Iran has worked over recent months to rebuild its missile arsenal and improve launch accuracy, indicating an expected rise in the future cost of Israeli defence. The newspaper quoted informed sources as saying that one reason behind the delay of a potential American attack is Washington’s recognition that the target bank in Iran is no longer sufficient, after Tehran concealed missile launch platforms and relocated them to areas that are more difficult to strike.
