Military and strategic expert Hassan Jouni said the region is witnessing an unprecedented operational and strategic situation, amid a sharp escalation in the scale and spread of the US military buildup, particularly following the arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea.
In a military analysis, Jouni explained that this exceptional US strategic deployment cannot be treated as a routine movement. It now grants Washington a near-immediate capacity to dominate the entire regional theatre of operations, with a clear focus on Iran as the central target of this buildup.
He noted that the nature of the deployed force, especially the Abraham Lincoln carrier as a floating air and naval base, enables strikes across the entirety of Iranian territory and against all vital targets. This, he said, complicates escalation calculations and pushes the situation toward open-ended trajectories.
This assessment comes amid accelerated US military movements that have included the transfer of squadrons of F 15 Strike Eagle fighter jets from Britain to the Middle East, supported by aerial refuelling aircraft and military transport planes, reflecting broad operational readiness.
Against this backdrop, Jouni stressed that the sheer scale of the buildup is itself a source of strategic uncertainty. Its size makes it difficult to predict how it might be employed politically or militarily, particularly in the absence of any clear declaration regarding the ultimate objective of the escalation.
He pointed out that the first reason for this unpredictability lies in the lack of a clearly defined political goal, emphasising that military power, regardless of its magnitude, remains an instrument that cannot be assessed in isolation from the purpose it is intended to serve.
Objectives of the US Buildup
Jouni added that when force reaches this level, it becomes a tool of maximum pressure, but simultaneously turns into a potential escalation trigger. If it fails to impose a new political equation on the opposing side, it risks moving beyond deterrence.
This ambiguity is compounded by past experience, which has shown that the United States has repeatedly relied on displays of force without proceeding to direct confrontation. As a result, the current scene remains suspended between coercive deterrence and the possibility of sliding into a war with no clear ceiling.
Jouni explained that the second source of uncertainty stems from the nature of the deployment itself. The concentration of such massive force is, in his assessment, part of the battle, intended to reshape the adversary’s calculations and push it to alter its behaviour without firing a shot.
He warned that failure of this approach fundamentally alters the situation, as the deployed force then becomes primed for use. Any friction or miscalculation could open the door to gradual escalation that would be difficult to contain.
This reality coincides with a dense US naval presence in the Gulf and the Arabian Sea, backed by destroyers, combat vessels, and permanent bases, including the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Together, these factors further complicate the operational theatre and heighten risk levels.
Asymmetric Warfare
The third factor, according to the military and strategic expert, relates to the nature of the opposing side. He said that balances of power with Iran cannot be read through the lens of conventional superiority alone, given Tehran’s reliance on asymmetric warfare patterns.
Jouni explained that Iran possesses geopolitical leverage that makes any confrontation prone to expansion, most notably its influence over the security of maritime corridors, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to its ability to affect regional security through indirect means.
He said that while the effectiveness of these tools has declined compared with earlier phases, they remain sufficient to disrupt US calculations and leave the outcome of any escalation open to scenarios extending beyond direct military engagement.
Jouni stressed that the interaction between overwhelming US military superiority and Iran’s asymmetric manoeuvring capacity makes it difficult to control the course of confrontation or predict its endpoint.
The picture is further clouded by accompanying political and security indicators, including the visit of the commander of US Central Command, Brad Cooper, to Israel, and the cancellation of flights to the region by international airlines, reflecting growing fears of an uncalculated escalation.
