While radar systems track waves of Western civilian aircraft fleeing Tel Aviv, the final contours of a so-called “new Middle East” are being shaped behind closed doors in Washington and Tel Aviv. This time, according to political analyses, the approach is not built on conventional wars, but on precise intelligence surgery aimed at removing the apex of power in Tehran.
Field indicators suggest that the situation has moved beyond the phase of psychological mobilisation toward a military “zero hour”. The evacuation of Israeli airspace by major airlines such as Lufthansa and British Airways, alongside the rerouting of flights away from Riyadh, Doha, and Amman, is not a routine precaution. It reflects a security protocol that typically precedes major regional detonations. From a technical standpoint, the most striking signal is the departure of several Israeli El Al aircraft stationed at Ben Gurion Airport to foreign airports, indicating that Israeli intelligence assessments anticipate a severe response capable of rendering airports entirely inoperable.
At the political core of the scenario, Donald Trump appears unwilling to replicate the Iraqi or Afghan models. Instead, he is leaning toward what is being described as the “Venezuela Doctrine”, the toppling of a system through the direct targeting of its senior leadership structure. Leaked intelligence outlines speak of a complete paralysis of Iranian air defences via advanced electronic warfare systems deployed from the aircraft carriers USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Abraham Lincoln, followed by rapid commando operations striking centres of sovereign gravity. This scenario, previously warned of by Turkish strategic figure Hakan Fidan, is not merely an Israeli aspiration. It is framed as a preemptive operation that Tel Aviv views as its final exit before the adversary acquires hypersonic technology that cannot be intercepted.
As for the wager on a “Chinese air bridge” to rescue Tehran, it remains an emotionally driven reading that lacks geopolitical logic. China, which manages its investments with calculated precision, is unlikely to sacrifice its global interests with the West by plunging into a direct confrontation. Beijing will not openly deliver S 400 systems or combat aircraft, as doing so would immediately turn Taiwan into an American powder keg in response. Chinese strategy is anchored in balance. It recognises that major corporations fear sanctions more than wars, rendering the notion of overt Chinese military support an illusion unsupported by reality. Beijing, in practice, shuts its doors to any state actively engaged in armed conflict to safeguard its economic security.
The region’s population now stands at a precarious security crossroads. Either the American rapid strike succeeds in disabling Tehran’s capabilities without sliding into a regional war, or the “deterrence umbrella” over Tel Aviv collapses. This risk is underscored by Israeli admissions regarding the difficulty of intercepting more than 700 ballistic missiles simultaneously. Repeated Iranian statements about military readiness suggest that Tehran has decided to transform any targeting of its symbols into a comprehensive war, one that would ignite regional airports and energy production hubs. This calculus explains the state of “silent mobilisation” currently gripping surrounding capitals.
