Because our region would be the most affected should a new war erupt, it is necessary to closely follow what is happening, and what may happen, in Iran.
Since the 12 day war between Israel and Iran on 13 June 2025, followed by the US “Midnight Hammer” operation against Iran, when Washington struck key Iranian nuclear facilities at dawn on 22 June 2025, namely Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the drums of renewed war have been beating intermittently and in multiple forms.
The war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel since the assumption of office by US President Donald Trump has become direct and more explicit in terms of decisive action and reshaping the landscape, in line with regional developments in the post 7 October phase. Israel and the United States, whether under President Biden or President Trump, have used these developments as a pretext to redraw the region, expand Israel, and entrench it as a dominant power. This has occurred alongside the declining priority of the Middle East file for the current US administration compared with previous administrations, while maintaining the priority of supporting Israel so that it remains the hegemonic force in the region.
Accordingly, there is a sense of urgency, for multiple reasons beyond the scope of this article, to swiftly bring down the Iranian system in line with the strong desire of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For him, striking at the current Iranian system would represent a decisive victory that could elevate him to historical status within Israel, enable him to obtain legal immunity shielding him from prison, enhance his chances of winning upcoming elections, eliminate the fear posed by the Iranian file in the region, and transform Israel into a fully dominant power in the so called new Middle East.
The decision to wage war on Iran was taken after 7 October through Israeli scenarios and American approvals that unfolded step by step, beginning with the effort to reduce Iran’s power by eliminating its regional allies. This started with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, alongside targeting Iranian centres of influence in Syria and Iraq, culminating in strikes deep inside Iran in June 2025, as noted earlier.
Today, there is a new chapter in the Iranian Israeli American war, the details of which may have been agreed during Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington. To understand the dimensions and scenarios of the anticipated war, the following points can be outlined.
First, the war on Iran is already under way, and what is awaited now is the final strike, whether military, cyber, intelligence based, or through other means to achieve the objective.
Second, current questions revolve around the purpose of striking Iran. Is it to fully change the system, merely weaken it, or divide Iran? Each objective requires different scenarios and tools, including approaches likened to the Venezuelan model, potentially through the assassination of influential figures and leaders.
Third, the war on Iran takes multiple forms. Intelligence warfare is ongoing and has not ceased, media warfare is escalating, and all justifications for striking Iran are prepared. The international community has been primed for such a strike under the banner of a claimed humanitarian objective related to saving Iranian protesters participating in demonstrations.
Fourth, Iran today is prepared to absorb a strike, but the question remains whether it would be able to respond. Analyses suggest that the United States would need to deliver a direct blow that concludes the mission without allowing Iran to retaliate. If Iran were able to respond, the scale of destruction in the region, and potentially globally, would be immense.
Fifth, if the objective is to divide Iran by targeting Iranian power centres, particularly the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia, this would not be easy given Iran’s geography and vast territory. However, the United States may resort to this scenario on a temporary basis, confining the current system to the capital alone.
Sixth, among the risks of an imminent war is that all parties have mobilised and prepared multiple scenarios, leaving the region on a knife edge vulnerable to unforeseen developments with severe consequences. This is especially the case as Iran, at this stage, has little left to lose after its regional influence was weakened through the erosion of its allies and its international standing, particularly following the arrest of its strategic international ally, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and the destruction of a strategic partnership that had served as an outlet for circumventing economic sanctions.
Seventh, the strong card Iran previously wielded was the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. This card has been significantly weakened after the United States took control of Venezuelan oil. As a result, Iran may have no option left other than igniting the region if it finds itself cornered.
