The situation between Israel and Lebanon appears to have entered a phase dominated by anticipation and the absence of a decisive direction. The field reality is expected to remain at its current pace of Israeli air raids, even if they increase in scale, intensity, and geographic spread. This comes amid regional and international focus on the dangerous and unfolding events in Iran, driven by the eruption of popular protests against the Iranian authorities following a major financial collapse in the country. As a result, the decisions taken by the Council of Ministers at its last session have remained subject to support, backing, or reservation, while legitimate questions continue to be raised about what is happening in Iran, its inevitable repercussions on countries affected by Iranian influence, including Lebanon, and the resilience of popular segments rising against the Iranian system and how long they can endure, especially if security forces resort to brutal repression against protesters. These developments appear to have prompted Israel itself to exercise caution in translating its threats in Lebanon, even though the threats continue. The coming weeks, however, seem to carry a decisive character regarding scenarios of a large-scale Israeli strike on Lebanon, or the absence of such a strike.
In this context, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Israeli officials, that a “new operation” may be required in Lebanon aimed at “helping” the Lebanese Army disarm Hezbollah. This framing reflects an Israeli tendency to link the disarmament track to the possibility of field escalation if existing steps are deemed insufficient. According to the report, the proposal of a “new operation” comes within internal Israeli discussions on how to address the issue of weapons outside state authority in Lebanon, and what Tel Aviv considers security challenges on its northern border, particularly amid ongoing tensions and mutual accusations over responsibility for escalation.
As for the limited domestic movements accompanying the weekend holiday, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam visited yesterday the Grand Mufti of the Republic, Abdellatif Derian, at Dar al Fatwa. A private meeting was held during which general conditions were discussed. Dar al Fatwa’s media office stated that Prime Minister Salam affirmed during the meeting national constants and the fortification of Lebanese unity to confront the challenges Lebanon is facing from continued Israeli aggression on its territory, and to counter it diplomatically through commitment to international resolutions and respect for the constitution as the primary gateway to reform and rescue. He stressed that imposing the authority of the state is the only way to rebuild trust between Lebanon and its Arab and international surroundings, and that correcting Lebanon’s image can only occur through restoring the state’s sovereignty over its territory in security and political terms. He expressed satisfaction with the course of relations between Lebanon and its Arab brothers and friends, noting improvement from good to better, and affirmed that his government is committed to its ministerial statement and keen to complete and preserve its achievements so that Lebanon may recover and return to its former state, safe and sound, enjoying prosperity. Salam briefed Mufti Derian on developments related to the file of Islamist detainees and what his government is doing to conclude this file swiftly and justly. Mufti Derian praised Prime Minister Salam’s insight, prudence, and diplomacy in saving Lebanon from continued Zionist aggression that violates international resolutions, as well as his internal and external efforts to steer Lebanon past obstacles and crises. He emphasised national unity and the inclusion of all components of the Lebanese people to consolidate the foundations of the homeland in the interest of all Lebanese.
In the same context, the Higher Islamic Sharia Council held its regular meeting at Dar al Fatwa, chaired by Mufti Derian and attended by the ex officio member of the council, the Prime Minister, who briefed members on the work his government is undertaking across various fields. In its statement, the council renewed its support, endorsement, and standing alongside Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and his government, which has laid out a roadmap in its ministerial statement to be built upon to exit the predicament Lebanon is experiencing. It called for accelerating the implementation of Lebanese government decisions related to the requirement that weapons be confined to the hands of the state alone, the extension of state authority through its legitimate forces over all its territory, and the application of the constitution and the Taif Agreement, which stipulates the withdrawal of militia weapons. It commended the role of the Lebanese Army through its deployment in the south and the confinement of weapons in the implementation of Cabinet decisions. It expressed satisfaction with the prudent steps taken by the army to extend its control over the entire Lebanese territory. The council warned of the infiltration of remnants of the fallen regime in certain Lebanese areas and the actions they undertake that undermine security and stability and could ignite strife, requiring a wise response by the security forces to safeguard Lebanon and its security. While calling for elections to be held on their constitutionally specified dates, the council adopted, regarding the issue circulating in the media under the title “the alleged prince case”, the position announced by the Prime Minister and the Grand Mufti that the matter has no connection to Dar al Fatwa, and that the judiciary should proceed in accordance with applicable laws.
In the south, an Israeli drone dropped leaflets containing threats to residents over the town of Aita al Shaab in the Bint Jbeil district, calling for preventing Hezbollah from reestablishing positions near civilian areas. It was also reported that an Israeli drone crashed near Wadi al Hujair, while another Israeli drone targeted a stationary excavator in the al Turrash neighbourhood southwest of the town of Mais al Jabal. An Israeli aircraft dropped a bomb near an excavator in the town of Muhaybib and over the Kroum Abu al Ola area in Mais al Jabal, and an excavator in Maroun al Ras caught fire after being targeted with an explosive device. Israeli forces at the Ramtha position conducted machine gun fire sweeping the surroundings of the town of Kfar Shouba. On the Israeli side, Channel 12 reported that thousands of Israelis received text messages from an unknown source stating: We are coming. You should look to the sky at midnight.
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