Israeli authorities have failed to “understand the recovery capacity of Hezbollah and Hamas,” retired Major General Yitzhak Brik wrote in an opinion piece for Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
The piece titled “Behind the image of victory lies decline” points to multiple perceived Israeli dominances in several fields, signalling overall decline for the occupation.
What Brik described as “massive Iranian investment” and “deep Qatari and Turkish involvement in the Gaza Strip” has, according to him, allowed the Resistance to recover politically and economically, even while fighting.
“Support from these states acts as an ‘insurance policy’ for these [Resistance] organisations, ensuring their relevance even in the ‘day after’,” he asserted.
Declining Israeli stock
The retired general said that “Israel’s” situation reflects that of a stock in “consistent downward trajectory.”
“Even when a stock is in a consistent downward trajectory, the graph may show temporary rises, representing short-term positive peaks,” he explained.
“An inexperienced investor might mistake these for a trend reversal, but a proper accounting of both failures and achievements will reveal a picture of decline,” Brik added.
Brik emphasised that peaks of what he described as tactical success do not show the full picture of an overall declining trend. According to Brik’s assessment, Israeli leaders are trapped in overemphasising operational successes when evaluating “Israel’s” position.
Significant; not fatal
In relation to Israeli aggression on Lebanon and Iran, Brik said the attacks were largely successful; however, he criticised the Israeli leadership for assessing the security situation as “excellent”.
“When all points are combined, the conclusion is clear: the overall trend is a continuous deterioration of the state’s security,” he said, adding that attacks against Hezbollah and Iran were “significant” but not “fatal”.
“Today it is clear that the negative trend, stemming from developments that the political and military echelons chose to suppress, outweighs the temporary operational gains,” Brik underscored.
What’s causing the decline
Brik outlined several factors contributing to the overall decline, including the overemphasis on assassinations of leaders and the destruction of infrastructure as endpoints. He argues that this has caused a “structural error” in situation assessment that ignores the Resistance’s “recovery forces”.
He said that these forces “operate with considerable intensity beneath the surface.”
China offers technological, logistical depth
Brik then pointed to a new geopolitical axis led by China, Turkiye, and Qatar. He pointed to China, saying that it has emerged as an active player in the region, particularly “in rebuilding Iranian missile capabilities.”
This for Brik “changes the rules of the game.”
China’s role, according to the retired general, gives the Axis of Resistance “technological and logistical depth” that the Israeli regime will “find difficult to challenge” through conventional means.
Improving Turkish-US relations
He then pointed to Turkey’s improving relations with Washington and the Trump administration’s rapprochement with Qatar as indicators of the “erosion of Israel’s unique standing in Washington.”
Highlighting “Israel’s” qualitative military edge in the region, Brik pointed to possible F-35 and nuclear deals in the region as a threat to that advantage.
Regional support to Resistance
Another issue for Brik was regional support to Resistance forces in Lebanon and Gaza, where he alleged Iranian, Turkish, and Qatari support to the Resistance.
Finally, Brik warned of the “chosen blindness” of Israeli political and military leadership. He stressed that true security is measured not by immediate strikes but by the ability to prevent adversaries from rebuilding their capabilities.
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