Yemen has witnessed rapidly unfolding dramatic developments following the collapse of the long-standing alliance between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This came after the military expansion of southern separatist forces, backed and directed by the latter, toward the governorates of Hadramawt and Al Mahrah in the east of the country last December. These developments have opened the door wide to multiple questions regarding the reasons for this collapse and its implications.
Events then escalated strikingly, carrying clear indications of Saudi determination to end Abu Dhabi’s role and fully curtail its political and military presence in Yemen. This culminated in a decision by the internationally recognised Yemeni government to terminate a joint defence agreement signed with the Gulf state and to grant it a 24-hour deadline to withdraw its forces from Yemeni territory.
Notably, diplomatic channels were absent, and lines of communication aimed at de-escalation between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were cut off, unlike what had prevailed in previous years whenever disagreements or divergences arose between the two Gulf states. According to observers, this indicates that tensions reached a level no longer acceptable to Saudi Arabia.
Exposure and a Confrontational Path
In this context, Yemeni writer and political analyst Ahmed Al Zurqa believes that the alliance did not collapse suddenly, but rather reached a moment of final exposure of a confrontational trajectory that had been accumulating for years.
Al Zurqa said in a special interview with Arabi21 that from an early stage, the two sides differed in their definition of a possible Yemen. Riyadh sought arrangements that would preserve, even if only nominally, the Yemeni state and its unity in a way that served the security of its borders. Abu Dhabi, by contrast, focused on building independent local influence through armed forces outside the framework of the state, particularly in the south and along the coast.
The Yemeni writer pointed out that the military expansion of separatist forces toward Hadramawt and Al Mahrah represented a crossing of Saudi red lines, because it shifted the Emirati project from managing limited influence to a direct threat to the regional security equation and to Saudi Arabia’s eastern borders.
He added that in the past, disagreements were managed behind closed doors because the ceiling of divergence did not touch the core of Saudi security. Today, however, that has changed. What occurred is no longer a tactical dispute that can be contained diplomatically, but a clash over the nature of influence and the limits of partnership.
Threat and the Retreat of Diplomacy
He explained that when a dispute turns into a direct threat to the structure of national security, diplomacy recedes in favour of swift and decisive decisions. He continued by saying that Riyadh had indeed attempted to open channels of communication by sending a committee headed by Major General Mohammed Obaid Al Qahtani to Al Mukalla and Seiyun, the largest cities in Hadramawt. However, the committee was met with humiliation by the Southern Transitional Council under Emirati direction, which closed the door to de-escalation early on.
This was followed, according to the Yemeni writer, by Abu Dhabi’s disregard for a message from Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman. Instead, it responded by sending arms shipments to the Transitional Council in Hadramawt via two vessels that arrived at the port of Al Mukalla. This was a clear signal that it was not concerned with communicating with Riyadh and that it would use Hadramawt and Al Mahrah as leverage against Saudi Arabia in response to its recent regional moves.
Al Zurqa explained that Riyadh’s awareness changed this time, realising that continuing on this path would make it a partner in the dismantling of Yemen rather than a sponsor of a settlement. He noted that the swift expulsion of the UAE was not an emotional reaction, but a political message stating that redrawing the Yemeni map by force under the cover of the alliance would not be permitted.
He also said that Saudi Arabia chose this time to cut off the path rather than manage it, because the cost of delay had become higher than the cost of political confrontation with a former partner.
According to Al Zurqa, Riyadh felt both insulted and threatened by the Emirati leadership’s arrogant behaviour, which crossed red lines while relying on its ability to manage armed militias driven by the dream of secession. This provoked Saudi anger and pushed it to convey a message that it is the elder brother in the region and that it will fight everyone to protect its interests.
He went on to say that in reality, there were many files in which Abu Dhabi pressured Riyadh and attempted to embarrass it regionally and internationally. Matters even reached the point of Mohammed bin Zayed penetrating the Saudi elite in the past.
The same speaker stated that matters were further aggravated by the readiness of the Transitional Council, before it was dissolved on Friday, to bring Israel into the Red Sea, Bab Al Mandab, and Mayyun Island as one of the Emirati pressure tactics and a way of employing its militias in the service of normalisation and the Abraham project.
Accumulation of Strategic Differences
For his part, Adel Al Shujaa, Professor of Political Science at Sana’a University, said that the Saudi Emirati alliance did not fall overnight, but collapsed as a result of accumulated differences in strategic objectives, a loss of trust, clashes of interests in the south and east, and conflict over Yemen’s future.
Al Shujaa told Arabi21 that the military move by the Emirati-backed Transitional Council was an important factor, but more importantly, it exposed the deep crisis in each side’s vision for Yemen’s future.
He noted that in recent years, disagreements began to take shape around different agendas. Saudi Arabia tended to restore the authority of the legitimate state and control strategic areas to ensure the security of its southern borders, as well as negotiate with the Houthis through de-escalation channels.
The UAE, on the other hand, focused on building local influence through armed factions, most notably the now-dissolved Southern Transitional Council, and on achieving political and geopolitical influence in the south and east.
The Yemeni academic stated that the expansion of the dissolved Transitional Council into Hadramawt and Al Mahrah, both vital regions, strengthened the southern entity’s position and presented a practical secessionist project. This strongly conflicted with Saudi Arabia’s position, as it views the division of Yemen as a threat to its national security and border stability.
He added that this divergence in objectives rendered military and political coordination fragmented, transforming the alliance from joint coordination into hidden, then open, competition, particularly in Hadramawt and Al Mahrah.
According to the Professor of Political Science at Sana’a University, this collapse appears not to have been a temporary misunderstanding, but rather the accumulation of strategic differences.
He said that in this climate, communication lines were cut because the dispute shifted from a tactical disagreement to a strategic competition, with each side seeing the other as not even agreeing on the fundamental objective of its presence in Yemen.
At the end of last December, the UAE announced the end of its military presence in Yemen following public tensions with Saudi Arabia over its support for the Southern Transitional Council’s moves and after the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council requested that Abu Dhabi withdraw its military forces from Yemen within 24 hours.
Since the beginning of this January, forces affiliated with the Yemeni army have succeeded in regaining control over the governorates of Hadramawt and Al Mahrah in the east after launching a military operation that lasted 24 hours, during which the Abu Dhabi-backed Transitional Council forces suffered a crushing defeat.
Following that, the Saudi-backed Dir Al Watan forces advanced toward the temporary Yemeni capital Aden to secure it and end the control of the dissolved Southern Council forces, which had held it since 2019.
On Friday morning, the leadership of the Yemeni Southern Transitional Council announced the dissolution of the council and its affiliated bodies, in a step described by an official statement as preparation for participation in the Southern Dialogue Conference hosted by the Saudi capital Riyadh, in an effort to relaunch a comprehensive southern political process.
Despite this, the spokesperson for the Transitional Council, Anwar Al Tamimi, rejected the move, stating that decisions related to the Southern Transitional Council cannot be taken except by the council in all its bodies and under the leadership of the president, referring to Aidarous Al Zubaidi, who fled on Wednesday to Abu Dhabi.
He added in press statements that the council will continue to engage positively and constructively with all political initiatives in a manner that allows the people of the south to determine their future.
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