In a move described by observers as an unprecedented “Hollywood-style operation,” the United States carried out an airborne raid that resulted in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who were taken to an undisclosed location. This event was not merely an isolated legal or political action. It triggered a wave of analysis linking the operation to complex files ranging from the inflation crisis inside the United States to the Strait of Hormuz and fears of a third world war.
A broad current of analysts believes that the primary driver of this operation is purely economic. US President Donald Trump has set a clear objective before him: reducing prices and inflation in the United States at any cost. The fastest lever to achieve this is oil. Venezuela possesses the largest oil reserves in the world, representing 17% of the global total. While its production previously reached three million barrels per day, it has currently fallen to just one million barrels per day.
The American plan lies in restoring this lost production, which would lead to a drop in oil prices and, consequently, lower shipping and gasoline costs. This would translate into declining prices for all goods. Such a chain reaction would spare the US Federal Reserve from raising interest rates, increase liquidity, and revive markets, in a move described as “bad for Latin America but excellent for the American citizen’s pocket.”
These moves come amid shocking figures reflecting the fragility of the “American dream” today. Data indicate that 32 million Americans are unable to pay the minimum on their credit cards, 40 million rely on food stamps, and millions of others face the risk of bankruptcy or inability to pay mortgages and rents. Faced with this reality, Washington is no longer able to play the role of the “world’s policeman” for free. Its policy has shifted toward direct control over energy sources to rescue a strained domestic situation.
On the military front, analysts link the invasion of Venezuela to expectations of an imminent military strike on Iran, described as potentially “back-breaking.” If a major war erupts in the Middle East, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, or the Houthis targeting Bab al Mandab, and oil wells in the Gulf going up in flames, the United States would need a safe and nearby alternative energy source. Venezuelan oil, in this scenario, represents a form of “rear guard protection” for the United States to compensate for any disruption in Gulf supplies. The ease with which Maduro was arrested by helicopters, without notable resistance or activation of the promised air defences, whether Russian or Chinese, has raised questions about the existence of a “conspiracy” or betrayals from within Maduro’s own government.
Politically, the incident raised deep ethical and legal questions. A comparison imposes itself: what if Russia carried out an airborne raid in Kyiv and abducted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy? Critics of US policy argue that Washington is acting with the logic of gangs and thuggery rather than the logic of states, entrenching a law of the jungle.
As for Maduro’s fate, it now hangs between three paths, each carrying a security cost. The first path is a lengthy trial in New York on serious charges, with an American attempt to present the operation as law enforcement rather than political occupation. The second path is a political deal in which Washington exchanges the “head of state” for oil concessions and a controlled transfer of power. This path often appeals to those who think in terms of oil rather than courts. The third path is for Maduro to become a card of regional and international negotiation, used by major powers for mutual pressure, especially if confrontation escalates in the Security Council or in other arenas.
This international security breakdown revives memories of previous world war scenarios. Just as the Second World War expanded gradually from Poland to Europe and then the world, the increase in conflict hotspots today, the absence of deterrence, and the weakening of traditional American dominance over the Middle East could open the door to runaway regional wars and pave the way toward a third world war. All that remains for its ignition is a “final trigger,” such as China entering Taiwan or a decisive Russian strike against Ukraine.
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