As tensions intensify between Israel and Turkey, three of Turkey’s most senior officials carried out an unprecedented visit to Damascus, reflecting a notable shift in the regional landscape.
The visit brought together Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defence Minister Yasar Guler, and Head of the National Intelligence Organisation Ibrahim Kalin. The trip carried clear and forceful political messages.
This visit came less than ten days before the deadline granted to the Syrian Democratic Forces to comply with the 10 March agreement. Fidan stated that the primary reason for the failure of the Syrian Democratic Forces to adhere to the agreement was their coordination with Israel, saying that the fact that some of their activities are managed in coordination with Israel currently represents a major obstacle to the ongoing talks with Damascus.
In a region where Israeli forces are now positioned only thirty kilometres from the Syrian capital, Fidan for the first time issued direct and explicit accusations against Israel in this manner. In earlier television statements, he had already linked the difficulties of integrating the Syrian Democratic Forces into the Syrian state to the Israeli role.
The most significant statement, however, came from Damascus, where Fidan added a sentence of deep significance. He said that Syria’s stability means Turkey’s stability, and that this matter is of critical importance for Ankara.
The Israeli Response. A Counter Alliance in the Mediterranean
Before the Turkish delegation’s aircraft had even touched down on the runway in Ankara, Israel announced a countermove. Media images emerged showing the Prime Minister of Greece and the President of the Greek Cypriot administration in Tel Aviv, wearing coordinated blue attire, in a meeting that appeared to signal the announcement of a new alliance in the eastern Mediterranean.
Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration rank among Turkey’s primary security concerns. Together with Israel, they have held close meetings to strengthen trilateral cooperation in the Mediterranean, sending an unambiguous political message to Ankara.
During the joint press conference, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered remarks directly aimed at Turkey. He said that he was addressing those who believe they can rebuild their empire on Israeli lands, telling them to forget it because it will never happen, and adding that cooperation enhances their ability to defend themselves.
This statement did not target Turkey alone. It carried deeper cultural and political dimensions, seeking to stir long-standing fears embedded in Arab consciousness and fuelled by Western sources about the return of the so-called new Ottomans. Just as some politicians in Greece attempted to intimidate their public by invoking the return of the Turks, parties in the Middle East have promoted the idea that Ankara seeks to revive the Ottoman state.
By aligning himself alongside the leaders of Greece and Cyprus, Netanyahu sought to deliberately and strategically inflame these manufactured fears deliberately and strategically.
A Qualitative Shift in Israeli-Turkish Relations
For years, Greece and Cyprus pursued largely symbolic policies against Turkey. This time, however, the situation is different. Cooperation with Israel against Ankara has moved beyond populist manoeuvres and has become a serious regional policy.
Together with Israel, both states are attempting to narrow Turkey’s sphere of influence in the Mediterranean and are facilitating Israeli military presence near islands adjacent to Turkish shores, a step Turkey cannot ignore.
Israel is also moving to cooperate with any party hostile to Turkey. It has strengthened ties with India, angered by Turkey’s position in support of Pakistan, and increased coordination with certain Arab states that fear the growth of Turkish influence in the region. Israeli lobbies in the United States, particularly through evangelical currents, are actively working to obstruct Turkish projects on multiple fronts.
These efforts include blocking Turkey’s access to F-35 fighter jets, preventing its participation in peacekeeping missions in Gaza, undermining its humanitarian role, and confronting its engagement with Hamas. Members of the US Congress, especially those influenced by Israeli lobbying, continue to issue hostile statements against Turkey.
Israel is pursuing an intensive media campaign against Turkey’s security project aimed at creating an area free of terrorism. While the Turkish foreign minister was recently in Tehran condemning Israeli aggression, Israel was simultaneously working to persuade Donald Trump to launch a new attack on Iran.
Syria. The Hottest Arena of Conflict
Syria has become the most volatile arena in the struggle for influence between Israel and Turkey. While Turkey advances a unified vision for Syria as a single state with one army and unified territory, Israel continues to support plans to divide the country into three zones through direct military intervention.
Israeli actions have reached the point of targeting an area close to the residence of Syrian President Ahmad Al Sharaa in Damascus, through strikes understood as a direct threat that rejecting Israeli policies may carry devastating consequences.
Syria has effectively turned into a theatre of muscular confrontation between Ankara and Tel Aviv. As Turkey works to encircle the Syrian Democratic Forces militarily with the assistance of the Syrian army and some armed factions, Israel attempts to sabotage these efforts by activating its tools within the Syrian Democratic Forces, particularly the Fehman Hussein group, elements within the Druze and Alawite communities, and even covert networks inside the Islamic State organisation.
Could an Attack on the Syrian Democratic Forces Expand the Occupation?
The deadline granted to the Syrian Democratic Forces to integrate into Syrian state institutions is nearing its end. Turkey is signalling a possible military action, while recognising that such an operation could open the door to chaos that Israel might exploit to expand its occupation inside Syria.
In the event of large-scale clashes, Israel could strike Damascus or target vital infrastructure, believing it would face no deterrence. Israel views the Syrian Democratic Forces, especially their military wing, the YPG, as a critical tool to obstruct Turkish moves and will not easily accept the disappearance of this entity.
If Israel loses this card, other communities and groups it employs as tools, such as the Druze and Alawites, may distance themselves for fear of meeting the same fate.
For this reason, Israel is expected to do everything in its power to preserve the Syrian Democratic Forces and the YPG. The question remains whether it possesses the capacity to succeed.
Will Turkey Launch a Military Operation?
Turkey believes that the Syrian Democratic Forces, geographically and politically besieged, cannot endure for long, giving Ankara the upper hand on the ground.
Despite this, launching a direct military operation involving the Turkish army remains the last resort. The more likely strategy is to separate the Syrian Democratic Forces from the Arab tribes, which constitute around 75% of their armed elements and receive salaries from the United States. This would leave the YPG isolated on the battlefield.
Although Mazloum Abdi has claimed that the Syrian Democratic Forces number one hundred thousand fighters, Turkish intelligence estimates place the real figure at no more than forty-five thousand. Of these, around thirty thousand are Arab tribal members, and fifteen thousand are Kurdish and other groups.
The Turkish armed forces estimate that the YPG possesses between ten and fifteen thousand armed members, of whom only eight to ten thousand are combat capable, with the remainder assigned to internal security duties.
Accordingly, any confrontation is unlikely to see Arab tribes engage in fighting against Turkey or Damascus, and the YPG lacks the capacity to withstand a two-front assault. As a result, it has placed all its hopes on Israeli support.
Turkey plans to strip the Syrian Democratic Forces of their Arab allies and then besiege the YPG on the ground without direct intervention by the Turkish army, instead relying on allied forces within the Syrian army.
Is War Between Israel and Turkey Possible?
Repeated statements by Israeli ministers, officials, and research centres indicate that Israel now considers Turkey its primary enemy and is shaping its defensive posture accordingly.
Every Turkish move is interpreted in Tel Aviv as a threat. Aircraft purchases, warship construction, missile production, presence in Gaza, relations with Hamas, and even Mediterranean exercises are all read as existential dangers to Israel.
Recent moves with Cyprus and Greece form part of this approach, but the most intense battle is taking place inside the United States, where Israel is using its influence to obstruct Turkey’s armament programmes and political and economic projects.
So far, Turkey has not formally designated Israel as a threat in its security doctrine. However, political, security, and intelligence circles have begun to state this openly. Hakan Fidan himself has linked the Syrian Democratic Forces to Israel on multiple occasions in recent days, indicating a potential shift in official policy.
Even so, an open war between Turkey and Israel would be unlike any other conflict. Turkey, a NATO member state with close ties to the United States and the strongest army and economy in the region, would represent a formidable adversary. Any clash between the two would send global shockwaves and alter the course of events in the Middle East.
For this reason, merely uttering the word war must be treated with the utmost seriousness and caution.
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