Nearly five months after the first round of fighting between Iran and Israel, signs of a potential second phase of confrontation between the two regional actors have resurfaced, signalling the approach of a new “zero hour”.
Among the most prominent indicators are the following:
- Noticeable movements in global markets.
- Washington accelerating the delivery of precision, bunker-penetrating missiles to Israel.
- Growing pressure on the government of Joseph Aoun to disarm Hezbollah and cut off its funding sources.
- A threatening phone call from Pete Hegseth to the Iraqi defence minister regarding Iran-aligned groups.
- Security measures taken by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Euro-Atlantic consultations to prepare an emergency plan for reinstating International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors.
- Escalation in handling Iran’s new nuclear activities, with a focus on the “Koh-Kolank” and “Taleqan-2” sites.
- Reopening of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal file.
- Attempts to ignite internal chaos in Iran by amplifying the drought crisis.
- The approach of electoral deadlines in the United States and the occupied Palestinian territories.
All these indicators point toward a rising likelihood of a renewed Israeli (and possibly American) attack on strategic targets inside Iran.
Regional and Global Markets Fear a Return of the War Shadow
In November, the geopolitical risk stemming from rising tensions between Iran and Israel remained one of the leading factors influencing global markets.
During the twelve-day war, Brent crude reached nearly 81 USD per barrel at the peak of tensions, and market fear indices such as VIX jumped above 20 points, while investors rushed toward safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar.
Global stock markets initially declined during the first war but recovered quickly once the limited scope of the conflict became clear. This reflects the tendency of markets to absorb short-term geopolitical shocks unless there are sustained disruptions to energy supplies, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the current situation, the possibility of a second war remains present because Tehran has not halted its nuclear programme, and the Iranian authorities have prioritised rebuilding military strength as a strategic objective.
As a result, markets have maintained a “geopolitical risk premium” of five to ten dollars on the price of a barrel of oil. Foreign direct investment in the Gulf region has also declined. Should tensions flare again, oil prices may pass the 100-dollar threshold, global inflation could rise, and economic growth may slow.
IRGC Operations in the Strait of Hormuz
The twelve-day war reminded some political elites in Iran that energy market fluctuations still exert direct pressure on the United States and the decision-making process of its presidents.
Donald Trump expressed this sentiment on his Truth Social account, calling for the “drill, baby, drill” policy and urging oil-producing states to bring prices down, reflecting Washington’s sensitivity to the economic impact of Middle Eastern tensions on energy markets.
Economic experts believe that if the war expands to other areas in the region, the chances of a significant spike in oil prices, and the inflation that would follow in American markets, would be extremely high. Such an economic shock could directly affect the results of the midterm congressional elections.
Based on this analysis, rapid-response naval units of the IRGC intercepted and seized an oil tanker named Talara, flying the flag of the Marshall Islands. This measure, taken in the southern sector of Iran’s maritime borders, was a message with substantial implications for Trump’s economic advisers and global markets.
US Delivery of Bunker-Penetrating Missiles to Israel
With the pause in Gaza fighting, the Israeli army resumed a new campaign of attacks against targets linked to the Axis of Resistance, stretching from Lebanon to Yemen.
In addition to precision airstrikes, the Israeli military intelligence directorate (Aman) and Mossad have continued an assassination campaign targeting senior leaders, including the chiefs of staff of Ansar Allah and Hezbollah.
In this context, Israel began acquiring guided missiles such as MK-82, MK-84, BLU-117, GBU-39B, DLU-109, and DLU-110.
According to published information, the Israeli army, in coordination with CENTCOM, has requested three thousand units of each type. The value of this new military deal stands at ten billion dollars. Estimates suggest that the agreement was signed during the Biden administration, but its execution is taking place during the Trump administration.
Tehran’s efforts to address previous shortcomings and strengthen the offensive and defensive capabilities of its armed forces make “time” a factor that does not serve Netanyahu, who faces new elections in 2026.
“Iran Is Weak but Dangerous”: Preparing Public Opinion for a New Attack
After the third Lebanon war and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024, think tanks and media outlets aligned with the American establishment began claiming that Iran and the Axis of Resistance were at their weakest point in years.
This deliberate depiction of Iran’s military and security capabilities contributed to pushing Trump to endorse a comprehensive Israeli attack plan against Iran, with American support for striking the nuclear sites at Natanz and Fordow.
Although Trump and Netanyahu claimed after the twelve-day war that they had destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme and parts of its missile capabilities, media outlets backed by the Israeli lobby in New York have reignited a psychological campaign by publishing themes such as “the mystery of Iran’s nuclear file”, “the unknown fate of 408 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium”, “China’s role in enhancing Iran’s missile capabilities”, and “Hezbollah’s rapid rebuilding” to prepare public opinion for another attack on Iran.
Reopening the Jeffrey Epstein Case
Since 4 August 2025, when the Wall Street Journal, owned by Zionist billionaire Rupert Murdoch, published a report mentioning Donald Trump’s name in connection with the Epstein scandal, the case has dominated American headlines.
The scandal is so sensitive that some analysts have compared it to the Bill Clinton affair. Iranian analysts believe that pressure from influential figures such as Mark Levin, Nelson Peltz, Isaac Perlmutter, and Rupert Murdoch on Trump to engage in a direct confrontation with Iran before the potential June war raises the possibility that highlighting the Epstein file could be used by Netanyahu as leverage to push Trump toward war.
The Drought Crisis and Attempts to Create Internal Turmoil
The sharp decline in rainfall across West Asia has triggered a water crisis in several arid countries. Some sources indicate that water reserves at no fewer than sixteen dams inside Iran have fallen to less than ten percent.
The concurrence of this situation with escalating economic inflation has lowered the “threshold of public patience”, strengthening Netanyahu’s hopes of fuelling internal unrest in Iran.
In recent weeks, a series of incidents have taken place, including alleged images showing some Iranian military personnel supporting Reza Pahlavi, leaked photos and videos of members of the Shamkhani and Safavi families, and an intensive psychological campaign by media accounts linked to Israeli intelligence focusing on the water crisis in Tehran, in an attempt to create internal chaos that would pave the way for a second strike on strategic targets inside Iran.
Shifting the Balance by Increasing Pressure on the Axis of Resistance
Two years after the “Al Aqsa Flood” operation, Netanyahu plans to deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s regional allies. On the Lebanese front, the Israeli government accused Beirut of failing to disarm Hezbollah and deploy the Lebanese army in the south, threatening to extend its attacks north of the Litani River if UN Security Council Resolution 1701 is not implemented.
The construction of the latest security barrier by the Israeli army near the southern Lebanese border reflects Netanyahu’s intent to widen the battlefield against Hezbollah and prevent the rebuilding of its military arsenal.
In the same context, a delegation from the US Treasury visited Beirut recently and gave the Lebanese authorities sixty days to take effective steps to halt the party’s funding, marking an unprecedented escalation in pressure.
In Iraq, during a phone call between US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Iraqi Defence Minister Thabet Al Abbasi, Hegseth warned that the United States intends to carry out a military operation against a regional state, stressing that any reaction from Iran-aligned factions would be met with force.
The Approach of the “Zero Hour”
Netanyahu’s race to secure victory in the 2026 elections, the rapid rebuilding of Iran’s missile arsenal with Chinese support, the purchase of advanced air-defence systems and fighter jets such as the HQ-9B and Sukhoi-35, the continuation of “nuclear ambiguity”, the unresolved fate of the 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, and the stalled prospects of reviving nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington all make the likelihood of a new confrontation between Iran and Israel more probable than ever.
Furthermore, Tehran’s efforts to address past weaknesses and strengthen the offensive and defensive capacity of its armed forces make “time” a factor that works against Netanyahu. Under these conditions, the countdown has begun toward the “zero hour” for the anticipated Israeli strike on Iran.
