Talk of F-35 fighter jets has returned strongly to the forefront in recent weeks, as signs grow that Saudi Arabia is close to reaching an agreement with the US administration to purchase the most advanced stealth aircraft in the world. This has pushed Israeli concerns back to the centre of the security, media, and political scene simultaneously.
This development comes at a sensitive regional moment, in which the appetite of Middle Eastern states for advanced aerial deterrence tools has clearly increased, while Israel has moved with unprecedented boldness toward using force beyond its traditional borders, including high profile strikes deep in the region that have exceeded the usual security ceiling and entrenched a logic of imposing hegemony through firepower.
This rapid shift complicates calculations for several of Washington’s partners in the Middle East, who see ownership of qualitative air power as a basic condition for preserving balance of influence and deterring multiple threats within a strategic environment that has, for two years now, been living under intense political and military polarisation.
With an Israeli election year, the return of “deal-making” culture in Washington as an economic priority in US foreign policy, and a clear Arab insistence on the right to acquire advanced fighter jets, this issue is turning into a central axis in talks to re-engineer the Middle East under new arrangements of influence that, as usual, guarantee American interests first before any other security or political considerations.
Multiple Deals On The Table And Others On Hold
With the arrival of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Washington, one of the most sensitive military files in the Middle East returned to the forefront: Riyadh’s ability to obtain advanced American fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets. If this step is completed, it will reopen the question of Israel’s aerial superiority over the region, which for decades has been treated as a red line that Tel Aviv has defended aggressively inside the United States.
Renewed discussion of the Saudi deal has accompanied negotiations estimated at more than 142 billion dollars, covering a comprehensive arms package rather than stealth fighters alone. This reflects a shift in Riyadh’s goal from merely enhancing defensive capabilities to building an advanced and integrated deterrence umbrella.
According to US media estimates, Saudi Arabia has requested to purchase around 48 F-35 aircraft, a number that cannot be viewed as a cosmetic deal, but rather as a blueprint for a new strategic air force that could change the regional balance of air superiority if it proceeds to completion.
This development did not appear in a vacuum, but came in the context of a quiet race in the Middle East to obtain this privileged military technology. Several Arab and regional states, including the UAE, Morocco, Qatar, Egypt, and Bahrain, have submitted requests, reached understandings, or shown serious interest over the past years. Some of these were signed in principle during Trump’s first term, particularly within the wave of the “Abraham Accords”, but the deals remained suspended and never entered the implementation and delivery phase due to political, technical, and legislative complications, with the Israeli veto at their core.
Even Washington’s NATO allies have not been spared these political collisions. Türkiye, a direct industrial partner in the F-35 programme and contributor of more than 900 production parts for the aircraft’s components, found itself completely removed from the project in 2019 after Washington suspended its participation following the S-400 missile system crisis with Russia. Reports confirm that Tel Aviv played an influential role in pushing toward Ankara’s exclusion on the grounds that no other major regional power should be allowed to possess the same technology.
In parallel, the Moroccan scenario has recently advanced in an unexpected way, with specialised outlets speaking about the possibility of Rabat acquiring around 32 F-35 fighters. This would mean that North Africa too is now within the circle of highly sensitive aerial competition, not just the Gulf region.
Why The F-35 In Particular?
The regional debate does not revolve around any advanced jet, but around the aircraft that is the cornerstone of modern US air power and the most sensitive piece in the Western military superiority system. The F-35 “Lightning II” is not merely an attack platform with high firepower and long operational range, but a full sovereign system that combines stealth, information warfare, deep tracking, and multi-role precision strikes. This explains its transformation into a strategic symbol of air dominance in the current century.
Because the fighter was designed to be an airborne command centre rather than a simple jet, three main variants have been produced:
- F-35A for the Air Force – with the longest range and largest payload.
- F-35B for the Marine Corps – with short take-off and vertical landing.
- F-35C for the Navy – with larger wings for aircraft carrier operations.
In Israel’s case, a specially modified version named F-35I “Adir” was produced, featuring local cyber and electronic capabilities and full integration of Israeli communications systems, radars, and munitions, including Python-5 and SPICE, in addition to an exclusive combat helmet display. This made Tel Aviv the first country in the world to test the F-35 in actual combat beyond its borders in 2018.
The strength of the F-35 rests on a mix of stealth, penetration, jamming, and an unprecedented ability to gather information in the fighter world. Its stealth qualities do not simply come from radar-absorbing paint, as is commonly believed, but from precise shaping of the airframe to scatter signals and reduce both radar and thermal signatures simultaneously.
The aircraft structure was designed with calculated angles to prevent radar waves from bouncing directly back to emitters. This was reinforced with improved coatings to absorb electromagnetic frequencies, alongside an internal weapons bay that allows the jet to carry ordnance without compromising low observability, unlike aircraft that carry weapons on external wing pylons.
In addition, its advanced sensing system is a pillar of the aircraft’s superiority. The F-35 is equipped with an AESA AN/APG-81 radar capable of detection, tracking, and targeting from long distances with high precision, as well as a Distributed Aperture System (DAS) using six infrared cameras that give the pilot full 360-degree coverage, including areas not visible to the naked eye or traditional mirrors.
This is further strengthened by the Electro-Optical Targeting System (EOTS), which allows long-range detection and engagement of threats, while the Helmet Mounted Display System (HMDS) provides instantaneous tactical information projected directly into the pilot’s field of view, almost like seeing through the aircraft’s frame with no visual clutter or loss of situational awareness.
The superiority of the jet is not confined to hardware. It extends to real-time fusion of combat data, as the aircraft links and analyses information from multiple sources, whether allied air, land, or sea platforms, and then presents it to the pilot in a unified operational picture.
This method of managing battle turns the F-35 from a fast fighter into an airborne command hub capable of running a complex electronic battlespace and making accurate decisions based on real time data, giving the owning force not only superiority in the sky but also an edge in “awareness”.
Israeli Fears: Superiority First
Security and political deliberations inside Israel now resemble an early geostrategic warning system following rapid talks between Washington and Riyadh about a potential deal to sell F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia.
According to Israeli sources cited by Yedioth Ahronoth, there is genuine concern within the security establishment that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might make a decisive strategic concession that could later be seen as “a dangerous shift undermining Israeli national security” if he agrees to the deal without full guarantees preserving the exclusive qualitative air superiority of Israel in the region.
Tel Aviv is closely tracking all regional moves to acquire the advanced F-35 stealth fighter, fully aware that this jet does not merely shift the balance of power, but reshapes it. For Israel, any Arab or Muslim state obtaining the F-35 means encroaching on domains that have long been exclusively Israeli: acquiring a long-range, technologically protected offensive capability that can operate in complex defensive environments with low detectability.
Israeli officials have openly voiced their opposition to selling the jet to Saudi Arabia during high-level visits and contacts in Washington, including outgoing minister Ron Dermer, who stressed that the deal presents a strategic challenge that cannot be handled as a mere short-term political or diplomatic trade-off.
Israel bases its rejection on a long-term strategic agreement with the United States that guarantees its Qualitative Military Edge (QME) and the provision of capabilities superior to any equipment sold to Middle Eastern states. So far, Israel remains the region’s only operator of fifth-generation fighters. It has received 50 F-35A aircraft under an initial deal, followed by 25 additional jets in 2023, which it considers the “golden combat cornerstone” of its air force.
Notably, the Israeli F-35I Adir is not just a straightforward transfer of US technology. It is heavily modified with locally produced control systems, radar, electronic warfare, and guidance suites, giving it wider and deeper usage margins than the baseline model.
Israel was the first state in the world to introduce the F-35 into actual combat, all the way to its recent use in confrontation with Iran, which has only strengthened its conviction that absolute air supremacy is not a political luxury but a strategic defensive line.
Israeli military sources stress that allowing a regional power like Saudi Arabia to obtain such capabilities could restrict the freedom of action of the Israeli Air Force in near and distant theatres, including Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran, and could alter power structures within regional defence architectures in the coming decade.
Deal Logic Before Policy Logic
The Trump administration’s approach to a potential F-35 sale does not stem primarily from traditional US foreign policy thinking, but from an economic-commercial mindset that sees weapons as massive investment products before viewing them as tools of deterrence or geopolitical influence.
In this sense, the United States under Donald Trump appears more focused on ensuring profitability and financial sustainability for the most expensive and controversial aircraft project in US military-industrial history than on safeguarding regional superiority dynamics or conventional national security balances.
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme is one of the largest armament projects in modern history. Updated estimates suggest its total cost could surpass two trillion dollars over the aircraft’s life cycle, including development, procurement, operation, maintenance, and sustainment through 2088.
This enormous cost has multiplied several times over the initial 2001 estimates of 233 billion dollars, driven by inflation, ongoing technical modifications, extended service life, and the need to align multiple variants with the evolving technical and tactical requirements of the armed forces. Current data indicates that around 1.6 trillion dollars are allocated for sustainment and operation alone, while procurement is estimated at roughly 442 billion dollars.
Faced with such numbers, the F-35 project has become more than an aircraft. It is a tightly interlinked military-industrial economic ecosystem that requires long-term export contracts to guarantee continued funding and serial progress of the production plan.
These pressures have pushed Lockheed Martin to adopt extended and long-term purchase contracts with global component suppliers to reduce unit cost and achieve economies of scale in the supply chain. In this context, foreign sales are not just a commercial option but a guarantee for the project’s survival without financial shortfalls or radical restructuring.
Within these parameters, Saudi Arabia, with its immense financial and investment capacity, is an ideal target for the Trump administration’s logic of turning strategic relationships into economic contracts. Trump showed unprecedented flexibility in responding to Riyadh’s demands, especially after Saudi pledges of up to 600 billion dollars in US investments, alongside initial readiness for defence deals exceeding 142 billion dollars that the White House described as the largest defence cooperation agreement in US history.
Trump did not hesitate to turn the public political scene into a direct deal-show when he told the Crown Prince: “I will ask you to raise the amount to one trillion dollars, and I think you will do it,” using the language of profit, cheques, and investment opportunities instead of the traditional diplomatic tone.
Although the Trump administration embraced rhetoric of military and economic openness toward Saudi Arabia, domestic political considerations still form an unavoidable gateway for the deal, particularly with congressional oversight that has not closed the file on the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the ensuing legal and political scrutiny over human rights and the implications of arms exports to the region.
Concerns do not end there. They extend to other factors, foremost among them the risk of sensitive technology transfer to global rivals such as China and Russia through expanding security or industrial cooperation with some regional states, including Saudi Arabia.
This fear is rooted in a US reading presented in a Pentagon intelligence report that warned of scenarios of direct or indirect technology leakage, whether via industrial collaboration or technological espionage.
A Deal Within The Deal: Superiority In Exchange For Normalisation
Given the rising complexity surrounding F-35 sales to regional states, Israel does not hide its desire to exploit the current moment to strike a double bargain: keeping its qualitative military edge protected by a higher future ceiling of capabilities, while at the same time extracting Saudi political concessions on the Palestinian track by pushing Riyadh toward unconditional or heavily diluted normalisation in exchange for acquiring the most advanced stealth fighter.
Although Israel publicly opposes any Arab state joining the fifth-generation stealth club, it is quietly opening the door to an internal option of moving up to a higher level of technological superiority. This would be done by acquiring upgraded F-35 variants in a “fifth generation plus” framework or entering early into the sixth-generation F-47 project, announced in March 2025 after Boeing was awarded the development contract.
This fighter is viewed as a strategic leap rather than a mere upgrade, with capabilities including speeds beyond Mach 2, an operational range exceeding 1,800 km, and “stealth++” technologies surpassing both the F-35 and F-22, making it, in the Israeli view, a post-next-decade insurance card.
In this context, Israel does not appear to be aiming solely to block a Saudi deal, but to exploit it as a tool of political engineering. Assessments circulating within Israeli military and media circles suggest that Netanyahu is inclined to accept F-35 sales to Saudi Arabia in exchange for political concessions from Riyadh, chiefly dismantling the linkage between normalisation and a political solution for the Palestinian cause.
According to military sources cited in the Hebrew press, Netanyahu favours free or low-cost normalisation politically over strict preservation of traditional qualitative superiority conditions, a posture some Israeli security officials have described as “a dangerous strategic concession”.
In this sense, the current discussion about the F-35 deal goes beyond a debate on armament balances to become a mechanism for political re-engineering of the region. Israel is pushing toward normalisation with no price paid to Palestinians. Washington is betting on the sustainability of its economic interests. Riyadh is seeking an air power leap that redefines its strategic position in the coming decade.
