In a stunning geopolitical shift, the United States on 29 October abruptly lifted sanctions on the leader of the Bosnian Serbs and genocide denier Milorad Dodik, a well known Kremlin ally who has long undermined the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This decision, which contradicts years of steady American policy, coincides strikingly with the start of direct dealings between Russia and the Bosnian Serb entity, Republika Srpska.
For years, Russia viewed Belgrade as the sole representative of all Serbs in the region. Yet it has recently dealt a major blow to Serbian authority by recognising Dodik as the legitimate representative of the Bosnian Serbs.
Unjustified U-turn
The United States suddenly lifted sanctions on Dodik and his network, in a surprising and unexplained retreat from a longstanding American policy. For years, Washington targeted him for his attempts to destabilise Bosnia, his denial of genocide, and his push for secession. Removing his name from the sanctions list looks like a blessing of Bosnia genocide denial and flings the door wide open for the country’s disintegration.
This step exposes a stark contradiction in American foreign policy. Dodik is one of the most openly pro Kremlin figures in Europe, proudly celebrating his relations with Moscow and openly declaring his support for its interests. Despite this, the United States continues to impose strict sanctions on many individuals and entities for far weaker ties to Russia.
The justification that the decision came as a result of a “successful lobbying effort” led by Dodik does not stand up to scrutiny. Estimates of his lobbying expenditures in the United States reach two to three times the 30 million dollars documented in 2017. Yet these amounts remain modest compared with what major states and lobbying groups spend, many of which consistently fail to achieve such spectacular diplomatic outcomes.
There is another explanation for this American political shift related to Bosnia’s mineral wealth, especially lithium. On 21 May 2025, Dodik publicly declared that he was offering the mineral resources of Republika Srpska to the United States in exchange for its recognition of Republika Srpska’s sovereignty.
But this explanation suffers from a logical flaw. If the United States were truly interested in lithium, maintaining sanctions would give it greater leverage over those resources without the need to grant Dodik any political recognition. The weakness of this justification suggests the existence of deeper, undisclosed geopolitical considerations and raises serious questions about the real price of this sudden American retreat.
Moscow Sidelines Belgrade
For several years, Serbia has been gradually distancing itself from Russia and leaning towards the West. On 29 August 2024, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced a 3 billion dollar deal to purchase 12 Rafale aircraft from France, marking a major shift towards Western security alliances.
In a joint press conference, French President Emmanuel Macron described the deal as “historic”, praising Serbia’s “strategic courage” and affirming its European future.
Moscow did not let this go unnoticed. In May 2025, it accused Belgrade of “stabbing it in the back” by selling weapons to Ukraine. In July, the Kremlin condemned Serbia’s intention to join Western sanctions on Russia.
On the day before sanctions were lifted, Dodik was not moving closer to Washington but was in Minsk embracing Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. By meeting Dodik on the eve of the American decision, Moscow signalled a new strategy in the Balkans built on deliberately sidelining Serbia.
In September, the Russian foreign minister described Dodik as “the legitimately elected president” of Republika Srpska. Today, the official website of the Russian Foreign Ministry describes Dodik as “the leader of the Bosnian Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina” – a new designation carrying several strategic implications:
First, it weakens Bosnia’s sovereignty by granting Dodik a national mandate, not just a regional one.
Second, it challenges Serbia’s national ambitions embodied in the concept of the “Serbian World” (Srpski svet) as the supreme patron of all Serbs, and instead positions Moscow as the higher reference in Serbian affairs.
The “Serbian World” project resembles its Russian counterpart known as the “Russian World” (Russki mir). Both seek to unify ethnic and linguistic components into a cross border cultural identity in order to justify political expansion and intervention in neighbouring states under the pretext of protecting minorities.
The strongest signal of this shift came from Dodik himself, who stated plainly that Belgrade has no authority over Republika Srpska. Vucic responded in protest: “Last night, I saw that Banja Luka is saying that no one from Belgrade will be giving them orders.”
For years, Serbia has portrayed itself as the paternal guardian of all Serbs, and Republika Srpska moved within its political orbit. Dodik’s statement shattered this arrangement and placed the Serb majority entity under a new patron.
This step has publicly split Dodik and Vucic and reduced Belgrade’s authority. It is a clear indication that Russia is now dealing directly with Serb separatists in Bosnia, bypassing the Serbian government.
For Vucic, who has tried to balance between Europe and Russia, this is the worst possible scenario. His influence is no longer needed, and Russia has started operating from Banja Luka instead of Belgrade, drastically downgrading Serbia’s geopolitical importance.
Russia Absorbs the Sick Heart of Europe
The American decision to lift sanctions on Dodik has effectively allowed Moscow to absorb Republika Srpska into its political, if not geographic, sphere. The era of indirect influence is over, and Republika Srpska is now being run directly from the Kremlin – a radical shift in the European balance of power.
Russian military presence in the Balkans is also expanding. While Moscow maintains unofficial bases in Serbia, it is now likely to establish a base in Banja Luka, the de facto capital of Republika Srpska.
Bosnia, which lies at the heart of Europe, even resembles a heart in its geographic shape. For thirty years, the European Union had the opportunity to treat this sick heart.
Yet it failed, because at its core it suffers from racism – Islamophobia and Russophobia. Now the price of this hatred has become clear. Half the heart of Europe – that is, half of Bosnia – has effectively become a Russian region, from which missiles could be launched more efficiently than from Kaliningrad.
The Grand Chessboard: A Tacit Understanding Between Washington and Moscow?
The sudden lifting of American sanctions on Dodik, immediately followed by his strategic embrace of Lavrov, does not look like an American failure but a calculated move on the great power chessboard.
Lavrov’s move to legitimise Dodik at Belgrade’s expense sent a strong message to Serbia that its historic role as protector of the Bosnian Serbs has come to an end.
Through this new alliance, Moscow demonstrates that it holds the keys to power in Republika Srpska and reminds Serbia who actually controls the loyalties of its kin.
This move exploits the deep contradictions of the Serbian condition: a nation torn between its European aspirations and its profound cultural, religious, and historical bonds with Russia. Lavrov’s step has tightened Russia’s grip, pushing Belgrade toward dependency.
This opens the door to one of the most troubling theories: that American acquiescence is part of a tacit deal between great powers. The timing and contradiction of the decision suggest it is not a retreat but a strategic bargain.
Washington may have deliberately abandoned its influence in Bosnia and accepted an expansion of Russian influence in the Balkans in exchange for a concession from Moscow elsewhere – perhaps in Ukraine, the Middle East, or another theatre of conflict. This fits a grim historical pattern: great powers frequently abandon local commitments in favour of larger secret deals.
The Big Question and the Fallout
The sudden lifting of American sanctions and Dodik’s immediate pivot toward Moscow leaves a chilling question unanswered: What did Washington gain in return for effectively gifting Russia half of Bosnia?
This opaque deal sacrifices decades of principle based American policy in the Balkans for an unknown geopolitical price. It undermines Washington’s credibility and threatens the fragile Dayton Agreement.
The consequences are clear: emboldened separatists, a less stable European continent, and a dangerous message that the democratic values paid for so dearly have become mere tokens in the great game of influence, where allies are discarded to secure victories for rivals.
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