Turkey is accelerating its entry into the global circle of nations that possess medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) capabilities, as Ankara develops a new-generation system with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometres — a reach that would cover Tel Aviv and much of continental Europe.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s repeated statements throughout 2024 and 2025 indicate a major shift in Turkey’s defence doctrine. “We have decided to strengthen our stockpile of missiles with ranges beyond 800 kilometres,” he declared, “and to accelerate the programme for a missile with a range surpassing 2,000 kilometres.”
According to defence reports, this new range would theoretically cover Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Eilat, Athens, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Cairo, Amman, Riyadh, Tehran, and parts of southern Russia — including several NATO bases in Italy and Crete.
The Ascending Trajectory of Turkey’s Missile Industry
Since launching the “Yıldırım” (J-600T) programme, Turkey has worked to build a homegrown missile arsenal. The original version had a range of 150 km, which later evolved to 300 km in the upgraded Yıldırım-II, with unconfirmed reports suggesting variants surpassing 800 km.
The country then developed the “Bora” short-range missile (280 km), followed by the “Tayfun” (Typhoon), successfully tested at 561 km in 2022. Erdoğan remarked at the time, “We do not find 560 km sufficient — we will reach 1,000 km.” The next-generation Tayfun Block-4 is now described as the core of Turkey’s future ballistic family.
In late October 2025, Turkey’s Defence Industries Agency announced a successful new test in the indigenous ballistic missile programme. Agency president Haluk Görgün hailed the event as “another successful trial — a silent preparation, a single moment, and a signature written in the sky,” noting that the missile’s range and precision continue to increase steadily.
He thanked Roketsan and all contributors for what he called a “historic achievement.”
Tayfun Block-4: Turkey’s First Hypersonic Missile
In July 2025, Roketsan unveiled the Tayfun Block-4 at the IDEF 2025 Defence Expo in Istanbul — Turkey’s first domestically produced hypersonic missile, measuring 10 metres in length and weighing approximately 7.2 tonnes.
The system is designed for high-speed manoeuvrability and forms the technological foundation for Turkey’s longer-range ambitions.
The “Cenk” Project: Strategic Ambition in Motion
Through the “Cenk” project, Turkey aims to develop a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a range of 2,000–2,500 km, capable of being launched from land, sea, or air platforms.
Powered by advanced solid fuel and capable of speeds exceeding Mach 5, Cenk is expected to carry a 480–600 kg warhead. The programme’s cost is estimated at $500 million, while Turkey’s defence exports surpassed $6 billion in 2025.
Minister of Industry Mehmet Fatih Kacır declared, “Turkey now has a missile programme with a 2,000-kilometre range. We are at a point that changes the rules of the game.”
This rapid evolution has alarmed Israel, with military analyst Amos Harel describing it as a “dramatic shift in the regional balance of power.” The development also deepens tensions within NATO, as Turkey — the alliance’s second-largest army — expands its missile capabilities outside U.S. supervision and European export controls, amid long-running disputes with Greece.
Meanwhile, Tehran observes Ankara’s progress through a lens of strategic balance, noting that the projected range matches Iran’s “Sejjil” and “Khorramshahr” missiles (2,000 km).
Toward Strategic Independence
Turkey’s long-term objective is to reduce foreign dependency in defence to below 10% by 2030, empowering firms such as Roketsan, ASELSAN, and TAI. Erdoğan insists that “defence investment is not preparation for war, but a guarantee of peace, sovereignty, and the future.”
By developing the Cenk missile, Turkey will become the first non-nuclear NATO state to field a fully indigenous medium-range ballistic missile, giving it the ability to project power across three continents — from North Africa to Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
This development positions Ankara as an intercontinental strategic player, marking a new phase in the regional ballistic arms race.
The Global Ballistic Landscape
Recent data show that 31 countries currently operate ballistic missile systems, including the United States and its allies. Of these, only nine are confirmed or suspected to possess nuclear weapons: China, Russia, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and the Israeli occupation entity, while Iran has developed conventional missiles exceeding 1,000 km in range.
China and Russia remain the only non-Western powers capable of launching missiles that can strike the U.S. mainland. The figures exclude cruise missiles, focusing solely on ballistic systems.
Understanding Ballistic Missile Classifications
Ballistic missiles are rocket-propelled during the launch phase and then follow a free-fall trajectory toward their target. They are categorised by maximum range and propulsion technology:
- Short-range: less than 1,000 km
- Medium-range: 1,000–3,000 km
- Intermediate-range: 3,000–5,500 km
- Intercontinental (ICBM): beyond 5,500 km
Short and medium-range variants are often termed “theatre ballistic missiles”, while longer-range systems fall into the strategic category.
They also differ by fuel type:
- Solid-fuel missiles are favoured for their readiness and stability, as propellant and oxidiser are pre-mixed.
- Liquid-fuel missiles require complex pre-launch preparation, since components remain separate until the final stage.
A Shift in Regional Power
Turkey’s entry into the 2,000 km missile club reshapes the geopolitical map from the Mediterranean to Central Asia. What began as a push for technological independence has evolved into a strategic doctrine — one that asserts Ankara’s ability to deter threats, challenge regional hierarchies, and redefine its standing between NATO and the Islamic world.
Whether viewed as a quest for sovereignty or a regional power recalibration, Turkey’s ballistic rise signals a new era — where a Muslim-majority state is no longer just a consumer of Western weaponry but a producer capable of reaching Tel Aviv, Athens, and beyond.
