Speculation is intensifying over a potential Saudi–Israeli rapprochement ahead of Israel’s next elections — a move that could redraw the regional alliance map and open a new chapter in relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
Although both sides maintain official caution and mutual diplomatic silence, the geopolitical and economic conditions appear increasingly aligned to push forward a measured, pragmatic convergence — not necessarily full normalisation, but a functional partnership shaped by Saudi Arabia’s security, economic, and regional interests.
Converging Interests Behind the Scenes
At the heart of this growing momentum lies a network of converging motives:
- Saudi Arabia’s desire for a reliable international security guarantor;
- Mutual needs for economic and technological cooperation in energy, artificial intelligence, investment, and infrastructure;
- And a shared anxiety over Iran’s regional and nuclear ambitions.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 hinges on diversifying the economy and attracting global investment. This requires broadening international partnerships beyond traditional Western allies — including those with technological leverage and financial power.
A Gradual Approach: Cooperation Before Recognition
In practice, a “rapprochement before normalisation” could take several forms:
- Symbolic political gestures and diplomatic coordination;
- Expanded security communications and intelligence sharing;
- Economic and investment agreements in selected sectors;
- Quiet strategic cooperation on regional issues.
Such steps would allow both sides to institutionalise functional cooperation without rushing into full diplomatic recognition — an outcome that would provoke domestic and regional backlash on both sides.
The Palestinian Question: The Central Obstacle
The Palestinian issue remains the core and most sensitive obstacle. Any Saudi–Israeli rapprochement will inevitably be measured against progress on the Palestinian front — namely, the establishment of an independent state on the 1967 borders, the right of return for refugees, and the status of Jerusalem.
Riyadh has consistently reiterated that the two-state solution is a non-negotiable prerequisite for any lasting normalisation. Hence, Saudi diplomacy is expected to pursue a delicate balance — showing regional responsibility and strategic pragmatism while maintaining Palestine as a pillar of legitimacy within the Arab and Islamic worlds.
Any perception of abandoning that stance could spark popular Arab outrage and domestic criticism, potentially undermining the Kingdom’s moral and political standing.
Israeli Election Calculations and American Leverage
In Israel, the political calculus is equally complex. The current coalition — dominated by the far-right — is divided over the terms of any normalisation deal, especially before elections.
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even symbolic engagement with Riyadh could bolster his image abroad while mitigating internal unrest.
The United States plays a decisive role. Washington may offer security guarantees, economic incentives, or defence agreements to encourage Saudi participation. Regional actors — including the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt — could act as mediators or facilitators, shaping Gulf consensus on the issue.
Economic Stakes and Strategic Risks
The economic implications are vast.
- For Israel, access to the Saudi market would offer political prestige and lucrative opportunities.
- For Saudi Arabia, the partnership could provide technological capabilities and financial support to accelerate its economic transformation.
Yet these potential gains come with serious political and security risks — from Arab street backlash and Islamic world discontent, to regional deterrence shifts that might trigger new instability.
Regional Context and Timing
The broader regional landscape — from the aftermath of the Gaza war and the pressure on Iran, to the reordering of Middle Eastern priorities — creates a dynamic in which incremental Saudi–Israeli engagement seems increasingly plausible.
However, political timing is critical.
Israel’s elections, Saudi public sensitivities, and Palestinian statehood commitments will all impose caution and shape the pace of progress.
A Calculated Process, Not a Historic Leap
In essence, what is unfolding is not an imminent “historic deal,” but a gradual, conditional process — a strategic courtship guided by mutual interests and constrained by political realities.
A measured rapprochement with political and economic dimensions appears plausible before Israel’s elections — but its success depends on whether Saudi and Israeli leaders, along with regional and international stakeholders, can balance material interests with moral and political legitimacy.
If they succeed, the Middle East could enter a new phase of pragmatic partnerships.
If they fail, the region risks rekindling old conflicts and unleashing forces far harder to contain.
