In a White House scene staged for maximum effect, US President Donald Trump heralded the moment as “perhaps the greatest day in history,” announcing—alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (wanted by the ICC for genocidal crimes in Gaza)—a joint US-Israeli plan to end the war in Gaza.
The announcement came 724 days after the start of the genocidal war on the Gaza Strip, unveiling a 21-point plan that Netanyahu publicly endorsed, insisting it “will achieve all our war objectives.” Though marketed as a final deal, the plan carries layered strategic aims that extend far beyond Gaza to reconfigure the regional balance.
Strategic Objectives of the Plan
As presented by Trump, the proposal is not merely about ceasefire and hostage exchange. It sketches a comprehensive regional vision, leveraging wartime momentum and the Arab-Islamic desire to extinguish the fire.
- Immediate ceasefire upon public acceptance by both sides, release of all hostages within 72 hours, and an Israeli pullback to agreed lines to enable exchanges.
- In return, Israel would release 250 prisoners serving life sentences and around 1,700 detainees from Gaza arrested after 7 October 2023.
Beyond these procedural steps, the essence of the plan rests on three parallel tracks:
- Rapid, comprehensive dismantling of Hamas’s military capacity via an international “stabilisation force” with Arab and Islamic participation.
- A transitional administration led by a “Peace Council” under international oversight, involving Tony Blair; it would recruit and train a technocratic Palestinian administration—with no role for Hamas and no substantive role for the Palestinian Authority, at least in the medium term.
- A political track toward Palestinian self-determination, labelled “credible,” pledging no formal annexation or occupation of Gaza, while maintaining temporary Israeli “security responsibility” until Hamas is disarmed.
Israeli affairs analyst Mohammed Al-Qeeq argues the blueprint contradicts Trump’s earlier “Deal of the Century”: the new plan, he says, empties international recognitions of substance, promises a mirage of “peace,” and seeks to appease Arab capitals in order to isolate Iran—especially after the aggression on Doha.
Firas Yaghi, another Israeli affairs specialist, warns against over-optimism: every clause requires an agreement—withdrawal lines, disarmament, PA reform, and the rest of the 21 items. He views the plan as chiefly designed to rescue Israel from domestic and international crises, terminate armed resistance under international-regional cover, and re-engineer Gaza’s real estate and investment landscape in ways benefiting Trump-linked businesses and envoy Steve Witkoff, with Arab financing and management by Tony Blair, a personal friend of Netanyahu.
Obstacles Facing Netanyahu
Netanyahu says “Trump’s plan” fulfils Israel’s war aims—hostage recovery, dismantling Hamas, preventing its return to power. Yet his public endorsement is a major political gamble: the plan includes hurdles that his far-right coalition partners—such as Smotrich and Ben Gvir—are unlikely to swallow.
1) The Palestinian State
The document nods to a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination”—a red line for Israel’s far right. Israeli officials told the Wall Street Journal they pushed for changes in the final draft: the current version keeps the issue open, avoids “two-state solution,” and instead references “the aspirations of the Palestinian people.” It remains non-binding.
2) Annexation and Settlements
The plan states Israel will neither annex nor occupy Gaza, and will not force Palestinians to leave—undercutting far-right dreams of annexation and expulsion as the “ultimate victory.”
Yedioth Ahronoth analyst Nadav Eyal notes these “concessions” shatter the far-right’s fantasies, even if Israel discounts them.
He adds that the Palestinian Authority effectively returns to prominence—with reforms of uncertain reality—while Gaza’s administrations would be staffed by Palestinians (from Fatah/PA, and possibly Hamas). He concludes: “All the time wasted declaring the PA irrelevant has gone to waste.”
3) Lifers to Be Released
Although Israel says it won’t free iconic figures like Marwan Barghouti, there are about 280 prisoners serving life terms, and the plan stipulates releasing 250—raising fears that nearly all could be freed.
Israel’s Demand: Operational Freedom for the Army
Israel insists on full freedom of action for its army against Hamas inside Gaza, rejecting a complete withdrawal after the operation—postponed under Trump’s plan for more than a year, contingent on disarmament.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir told the cabinet the coming agreement is “dangerous for Israel’s security”, full of loopholes, failing war goals, and outsourcing security to international forces:
“A third party will suddenly hold our security, granting amnesty to Hamas fighters. Where is the migration plan? Where is annexation? This bad deal risks a Palestinian state.”
Yaghi believes Netanyahu fears coalition collapse and early elections, pushing him to seek political compensation—perhaps a new war or domestic guarantees, such as immunity in his corruption cases. He predicts early elections that return Netanyahu with US-regional backing, end Israel’s isolation, and forge an Israeli-Arab ‘NATO-style’ alliance.
Netanyahu’s Manoeuvres under Pressure
According to Channel 12’s diplomatic correspondent Barak Ravid, Trump’s pressure combines three levers: an unusual Arab-Islamic alignment around the plan’s broad lines, an exhausted global public seeking ceasefire and hostage return, and Israel’s growing isolation with rifts among allies—all squeezing Netanyahu to “accept now or pay dearly.”
Trump said it plainly at the presser: “Bibi knows the time has come.” Yet Netanyahu is adept at promising in principle while unravelling details, buying time, and expanding “implementation reservations” until timelines turn into re-negotiable traps.
Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel expects Netanyahu to bog US officials down in painstaking talks over terms, text, and sequencing—complicated further by the absence of a binding IDF withdrawal schedule.
Netanyahu will also weaponise far-right opposition inside his coalition, and float signals meant to pressure Hamas into hardening its terms—so Israel can later blame Hamas for refusal. Yaghi concludes: complication and delay are Netanyahu’s only options amid internal and external pressure.
Between Stillbirth and Conditional Consent
Haaretz political analyst Jacky Khoury says Palestinians face a cruel bind: a wide gap between Israeli promises and actual implementation. Stripped of slogans, Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are left choosing between a soft occupation and a hard, open occupation.
Practically, Trump’s message to Hamas is: hand over the hostages, and we’ll see when and how a political horizon might be offered. Aside from self-praise and grand rhetoric, there is no genuine political pathway for Palestinians—no real vision, no peace process, and no challenge to Netanyahu’s rejection of Palestinian statehood.
Khoury argues Hamas and the PA will be forced to choose between bad and worse: foreign trusteeship or occupation without a clear framework.
For Yaghi, the blueprint is a deception plan aimed at prisoner release and population transfer. He reminds us that Trump has repeatedly been part of Israeli military deception, most recently proposing a “comprehensive deal” to gather Hamas leaders in Doha—to assassinate them.
Al-Qeeq warns of a new round of deceit and aggression: there is no real disagreement between Trump and Netanyahu; the regional design remains the same—only the tactics and packaging change. The target, he says, is erasing Palestinian identity and expanding Israel.
Conclusion
Trump’s plan is not a peace roadmap. It is a post-war architecture to neutralise resistance, rearrange regional security to Israel’s advantage, and transfer Gaza’s governance to externally engineered structures—while delaying any genuine Palestinian sovereignty. Behind the ceasefire language lies an attempt to convert a genocidal war into a lever for re-shaping the region—from Gaza outward.
