As Donald Trump made his way to the Middle East when the Gaza ceasefire began, he told reporters that the potential role of Tony Blair in the Palestinian enclave’s future was up for debate.
“I like Tony, I have always liked Tony. But I want to find out that he is an acceptable choice to everybody,” the US president said.
Blair’s record in the Middle East is controversial, to say the least, and the suggestion floated by Washington that he help run a post-war Gaza has been met with suspicion and even disgust in much of the Arab world.
Not in Egypt, however.
Blair joined Trump and other world leaders at the Sharm el-Sheikh summit last week that was designed to put the seal on the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
There, he was greeted enthusiastically by Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, evidence of longstanding warm relations and a public display of backing for the former British prime minister.
Since leaving office, the 72-year-old and his consultancy organisation the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) have advised a raft of governments.
The TBI has denied reports he advised Sisi in 2014 after the general ousted Egypt’s first democratically elected leader, Mohamed Morsi, however a source in the Egyptian presidency told Middle East Eye the former prime minister has indeed given advice to Egypt as well as its allies the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
“Back in 2014, when Blair was advising the UAE – which also funds his private institute – Abu Dhabi dispatched him to Cairo to serve as an adviser to Sisi shortly after he came to power,” the source said.
“The UAE financed Blair’s work and his team in Egypt, and Blair indeed provided numerous consultations to Sisi, including political and economic advice, as well as strategies to improve the government’s image after Sisi overthrew Mohamed Morsi.”
A spokesperson for the TBI denied to MEE that he has been paid by the UAE “or anyone else” to be an adviser to Sisi, “though of course he has met him frequently over the years”.
“TBI does not work in Egypt though would be happy to do so,” they added.
Enemy of political Islam
Blair’s relationship with the Egyptian government revolves around mutual priorities: countering political Islam, accessing Gulf funding, and promoting regional stability.
“Blair mainly advised on how to handle the Muslim Brotherhood, opposition forces, and the media impact in order to stabilise Sisi’s government,” the source said.
“Blair also provided economic consultations, suggesting that Sisi resorted to international lenders such as the International Monetary Fund and the European Union and coordinated with them to facilitate the loans.”
The source said that Blair’s role was official and not off the books, but it was not made public.
“At first, Blair was an independent advisor paid by the UAE. Now he offers the Egyptian government consultations through his institution and receives his fees from Egypt,” the source said.
The TBI denied he has ever received any “fees” from Egypt or for advising its government.
According to the source, Cairo is “highly unlikely to object to Blair assuming leadership of the proposed administrative council for Gaza”.
“Quite the opposite – Sisi’s government will support Blair wholeheartedly,” he said. “Blair is a firm opponent of political Islam, including Hamas, and has long called for excluding Islamists from political life.”
Since taking power, Sisi has outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, which Morsi belonged to, justifying crackdowns and repression on countering the threat of political Islam.
“For Sisi, Blair is not just an ally but a mirror: both see political Islam as the root of instability,” a Cairo-based political analyst told MEE, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“Their alliance offers western legitimacy for authoritarian governance under the banner of counter-extremism.”
From envoy to power broker
When prime minister, Blair oversaw the British invasion of Iraq alongside the US, unleashing bloodshed and chaos and the disastrous aftermath of the war.
After leaving Downing Street, he unsuccessfully led mediation efforts in Palestine and Israel as envoy of the Middle East Quartet.
Despite this, his expanding global footprint through the TBI, combined with his ideological stance on Islamic movements, helps explain why Cairo and its allies view him as a pragmatic choice for managing Gaza’s transition.
An Egyptian presidential adviser told MEE that “Blair’s re-emergence in the Gaza file is no coincidence, for he is acting like a modern-day British high commissioner”, likening him to Herbert Samuel, the controversial Zionist that ruled Mandatory Palestine from 1920-1925.
“Blair is expected to play a major role in administering Gaza,” the adviser said, noting that a recent meeting between Blair and deputy head of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, Hussein al-Sheikh, “carries deep political significance, well beyond ordinary diplomatic engagement”.
Following the meeting, Sheikh expressed readiness to work with Trump, Blair and other partners, whom he did not name.
The Egyptian presidential advisor noted that the new Gaza administration, called the Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA), is expected to be headquartered in the Egyptian city of el-Arish in the Sinai peninsula.
“This would ensure logistical and security coordination between Gaza and Egypt, given its border location, paving the way for the reconstruction phase,” he said.
The adviser said Cairo is preparing a five-year plan for Gaza’s recovery, which, he noted, reflects Egypt’s desire to lead reconstruction and cement its influence in the enclave’s political future.
Source: MEE
