In the early days of the Israeli aggression on Gaza in October 2023, Turkey introduced an initiative known as the “Guarantee System” aimed at ending the war on the besieged Strip.
The proposal centred on achieving a ceasefire first, transforming it into a permanent and sustainable truce, and then moving toward a final settlement that would ensure peace, security, and stability through a group of guarantors representing both the Palestinian and Israeli sides.
Turkey proposed to be among the guarantor states for the Palestinian side, while other external actors would guarantee the Israeli side. The concept of “guarantee” in this context meant that the involved countries would apply pressure on both parties to prevent violations of any agreements and to hold accountable whichever side breached the terms.
Ankara’s Ambition to Be on the Ground in Gaza
The initiative’s framework offered Turkey a legitimate avenue to establish a political, economic, and security presence in Gaza, allowing Turkish forces to position themselves there — effectively making Ankara a key player in the local, regional, and international equation, and limiting Israel’s unilateral manoeuvring power.
In a statement on 25 October 2023, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described the proposal as “the most realistic and effective path to a practical solution to the conflict — at least in the short and medium term.”
Despite Ankara’s efforts to promote the plan in the United States and the Arab and Islamic world, it faced strong opposition from Israel and the Biden administration, both of which sought to isolate Turkey from the Palestinian file, preferring to elevate the roles of the United Arab Emirates and Egypt instead.
Some Arab states also objected to the idea of deploying regional troops. Over time, Turkey’s proposal appeared sidelined, with negotiations over the war’s end being primarily handled by Qatar and Egypt, and post-war discussions led by the UAE and Egypt.
The Trump–Erdoğan Connection Reshapes the Landscape
However, when Donald Trump returned to the White House earlier this year, Ankara saw a valuable opportunity to reassert itself in the Palestinian issue, leveraging the personal rapport between Trump and Erdoğan.
Erdoğan’s success in convincing Trump to reconsider US policy in Syria paved the way for a series of bilateral and regional understandings, culminating in Erdoğan’s recent visit to Washington, where he received an unusually warm welcome and personal attention from Trump.
During a high-profile session in Washington that brought together the US president with Arab and Muslim leaders, it became evident that Turkey sought to play a central role in ending the war on Gaza.
Erdoğan was seated side by side with Trump at the head of the table, with other leaders positioned around them — an image widely circulated in the media, symbolising Ankara’s growing weight in the Palestinian equation.
Turkey Officially Joins the Gaza Negotiations
Within days, Turkey was formally integrated into the negotiation framework alongside Qatar and Egypt. The agreement’s announcement came after a meeting that included representatives from Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, and Hamas on one side, and the United States and Israel on the other.
Although the Turkish proposal did not entirely align with Trump’s Gaza plan, the latter bore clear Turkish fingerprints — particularly in the areas of:
- securing the ceasefire,
- facilitating the entry of humanitarian aid,
- contributing Turkish troops to an international task force,
- hosting Hamas leaders for long-term stays, and
- supporting Gaza’s reconstruction efforts.
While the current phase of the agreement remains its early stage — with many details still unclear — Ankara’s success in embedding itself within the Palestinian equation, despite geographical, political, and economic challenges and Israel’s strong resistance, is a notable diplomatic victory. This comes after years of criticism from populist voices questioning Turkey’s regional efficacy.
Erdoğan’s Post-Agreement Remarks
Following the agreement, President Erdoğan emphasised that Turkey would take all necessary measures to ensure Israel’s compliance with its obligations, citing “the historical record showing that Israel consistently violates agreements under false pretences at the first opportunity.”
Sources close to Turkey’s Ministry of Defence also confirmed the readiness of Turkish armed forces to perform any officially assigned missions.
This readiness, while likely unwelcome in Tel Aviv, is strategically significant for Ankara — particularly if the current agreement succeeds in overcoming the obstacles that lie beyond the first phase.
Israel’s habitual violations of ceasefires and treaties suggest that a difficult mission awaits the guarantor nations, especially those working alongside Turkey in Gaza.
Given the region’s complex geography and volatile politics, this cooperation will demand high-level coordination and deep mutual understanding among all involved parties.
