Rising tensions between Turkey and Israel have grown sharply due to Tel Aviv’s continued war crimes in Gaza and its repeated aggression against Syria. These escalating hostilities raise concerns among observers about the possibility of rapid developments, even to the point of tactical clashes or an outright confrontation — fuelled by conflicting security and strategic interests.
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the arrival of a new administration considered close to Ankara, reports emerged of Turkey seeking to establish military bases in its southern neighbour. Tel Aviv, perceiving this as a looming threat near its borders, responded with repeated airstrikes inside Syria and seized strategic positions, particularly around Mount Hermon.
Turkey has also launched strong criticism at the highest levels against Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza, now in its second year. Ankara escalated measures by cutting trade ties, closing its ports to Israeli ships, and hardening its rhetoric. This has alarmed Israeli politicians close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, some of whom have suggested that Turkey could be the next target of Tel Aviv’s aggression — after Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Qatar, and even threats towards Iraq — in addition to the ongoing massacres in Gaza and the West Bank.
In response, Ankara has not only matched threats with threats but also taken urgent practical measures. A recent Turkish intelligence report highlighted preparations for a potential confrontation with Israel, including strengthening air-defence systems, fortifying the home front, and beginning construction of advanced shelters designed to withstand nuclear threats.
The central question remains: if a military confrontation were to erupt, where would the balance of power tilt — in favour of Turkey or Israel?
Balance of Power
According to the Global Firepower Index 2025, Turkey, a NATO member, ranks 9th worldwide in overall military strength, while Israel trails six spots behind at 15th place.
- Military Budgets: Turkey allocates approximately US$47 billion, compared to Israel’s US$30 billion.
- Manpower: Turkey’s population exceeds 84 million, compared to Israel’s 9.4 million (of which more than 20% are Palestinians). This demographic advantage translates directly into available military personnel.
- Active-duty soldiers: Turkey has 355,000, while Israel fields 170,000.
- Reserve forces: comparable, with Turkey at 378,000 and Israel at 465,000, noting Tel Aviv’s heavy reliance on reserves.
Land, Air, and Sea Forces
- Ground Forces:
- Tanks: Turkey has over 2,200, compared to Israel’s 1,300.
- Armoured vehicles: nearly double in Turkey’s favour.
- Artillery and rocket systems: Turkey also holds a clear advantage, especially in mobile rocket launchers (MLRS).
- Air Forces:
- Israel excels in advanced fighter jets, especially air superiority and stealth platforms such as the F-35 Adir, alongside F-16 and F-15 fleets.
- Turkey, however, surpasses Israel in the total number of aircraft, including helicopters, transport planes, and training platforms.
- Naval Forces:
- Turkey possesses 182 naval vessels, compared to Israel’s 62.
- Turkey has 13 submarines, while Israel operates 5.
- Turkey operates a helicopter carrier, while Israel has none.
Beyond the Numbers
Both sides possess additional capabilities that could shift the balance:
- Turkey’s Drone Power:
Turkey leads globally in drone warfare, with thousands of units such as the Bayraktar TB2, TB3, Akinci, Anka, and the new jet-powered Kizil Elma (Red Apple). These drones have already shifted battle outcomes, from Azerbaijan’s war with Armenia to Ukraine’s defence against Russia. - Israel’s Stealth Jets:
Israel relies heavily on its cutting-edge stealth fighters, primarily the F-35 Adir, which it used in recent confrontations with Iran to target air-defence systems and strike nuclear facilities. - Air Defence:
- Turkey deploys multiple layers, most notably the Russian S-400 system, despite US objections within NATO.
- Israel boasts its own multi-layered systems: Arrow-3 (ballistic missile interception outside Earth’s atmosphere), David’s Sling, the Iron Dome, and US-made THAAD systems. Yet even these have shown vulnerabilities, as seen in recent Iranian missile strikes.
- Nuclear Factor – Israel’s “Samson Option”:
Israel is widely recognised as a nuclear power, with more than 200 ready nuclear warheads and stockpiles sufficient to produce 100 more. Its nuclear arsenal, deliverable by long-range missiles or aircraft, represents Tel Aviv’s “Samson Option” — an all-out nuclear response in case of existential threat.
Numbers Do Not Decide Wars
Military expert Walid al-Issa emphasises that wars are not won by numbers alone. Despite Israel’s military superiority on paper over the Palestinian resistance, it has failed to achieve victory in Gaza after nearly two years of relentless bombardment, ground assaults, and unlimited US support.
Victory depends not only on equipment but on combat doctrine, leadership, surprise, logistics, and alliances. These factors often outweigh raw statistics.
Prospects of a Turkey–Israel Clash
Military strategist Colonel Fayez al-Asmar argues that current tensions stem mainly from conflicting security interests, particularly over Syria. While Turkey and Israel view Syria as strategically vital, their perspectives diverge.
He downplays the likelihood of a direct war, noting that the United States and Western allies would strongly intervene to prevent a clash, especially given Turkey’s role as a NATO member.
If a confrontation were to occur, the absence of shared land borders would limit the conflict. It would likely centre on airstrikes, long-range missiles, drones, and limited naval skirmishes, rather than large-scale tank or infantry battles.
Israel’s advanced fifth-generation jets give it the ability to strike deep into Turkish territory, but Turkey’s air defence systems — and potential Iranian support with ballistic missiles and drones — could alter the equation.
Ultimately, while a direct clash remains unlikely, Syria could emerge as a potential battleground for proxy skirmishes.
Conclusion
On paper, Turkey outstrips Israel militarily, with stronger manpower, larger budgets, and a broader base of conventional forces. Israel, however, retains advantages in stealth aircraft and its undeclared nuclear arsenal.
Yet as history shows, wars are rarely settled by numbers alone. The resilience of Palestinian resistance in Gaza has already demonstrated that conviction, strategy, and unity can defy even the most heavily armed adversaries.
