The Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom acknowledged that “Iran’s sense of victory should not be underestimated.” With the nuclear deal frozen and further strained by the decision of the European trio (Britain, France, and Germany) to re-impose all sanctions lifted in 2015, Iran no longer appears to fear the outbreak of another war. Instead, it believes it can achieve strategic gains that eluded it during the previous confrontation.
Escalating Tensions and Israeli Threats
According to the report, Iran’s leadership is fully aware that the likelihood of escalation is growing—particularly as Israeli officials repeatedly threaten to resume hostilities if the Islamic Republic rebuilds its capabilities, with special focus on the nuclear file. Tehran, however, sees Western positions as little more than demands for surrender, fuelling its determination not to back down.
In light of these tensions, Iran has been learning from past mistakes. The leadership is concentrating on advancing its missile systems—evidenced by daily reports of test launches and official statements stressing the development of this arsenal.
The Twelve-Day War and Its Lessons
Israel Hayom recalled that after the so-called “twelve-day war” between Israel and Iran, the dominant view in Tel Aviv was that Israel had emerged victorious and that Iran had suffered a serious setback. Yet in Tehran, the narrative was different: the regime’s survival, and its ability to restore command within just 24 hours by appointing new senior officials to replace those assassinated, was seen as a major achievement. For Iran, simply maintaining parity in resilience against both Israel and the United States was itself a victory.
Iranian Confidence and Preparations
The paper stressed that Iranian officials have openly declared they would not hesitate to launch a pre-emptive strike if convinced that Israel was preparing an attack. At the same time, Tehran continues to seek military cooperation with Moscow and Beijing, particularly to enhance its air defence systems that faltered in the last confrontation.
Israel’s previous assault, the paper admitted, was “perfectly executed,” delivering a devastating surprise through advanced capabilities and backed by unwavering American support. The US even launched THAAD interceptors at a cost of USD 800 million during the fighting—an illustration of the heavy investment required to shield Israel.
But in any future confrontation, these favourable conditions may not exist. Whether Iran takes the initiative—out of fear of an Israeli first strike—or Israel itself begins hostilities, Tehran is likely to be far better prepared. Meanwhile, Washington under Trump is increasingly preoccupied with other crises, from Venezuela to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, raising questions about the level of American backing for another Israeli campaign.
Strategic Uncertainties for Israel
The newspaper argued that this combination—Tehran’s readiness and Washington’s uncertain role—could present Israel with challenges it did not face previously. If US involvement is less decisive, the critical question will be how such a campaign could be concluded and prevented from turning into a war of attrition. For Israel, a prolonged conflict could be more damaging than for Iran, not only because of Israel’s small geographic size but also because Iran has a long history of enduring and managing protracted wars, such as its experience with Iraq.
The article added that Israel risks paying a heavy price if a future conflict drags on. The Iranian system, the paper admitted, has proven stronger than it appears. Crucially, there are no “moderate” successors waiting in line to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—meaning any attempt at regime decapitation would not yield the outcomes Israel imagines.
Conclusion: A More Prepared Iran
Ultimately, the deadlock in diplomatic efforts, Iran’s potential drive to rehabilitate its nuclear facilities, and Israel’s persistent threats all compound the likelihood of escalation. This time, however, Iran appears more prepared than ever before.
Even if Israel maintains its military superiority—particularly its dominance in the skies—the real question remains: what are the chances of a future confrontation ending in Israel’s favour, when the risks of entanglement and long-term attrition are so high?
