The recent announcement of a “Joint Strategic Defence Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has sparked wide speculation and debate, with analysts highlighting both its symbolic weight and its uncertain details. The agreement, unveiled in Riyadh on 17 September, came amid heightened tensions in the Gulf region and has raised questions about its implications for regional security dynamics.
Strategic Ambiguity at the Core
According to Bruno Tertrais of the French Institute for Strategic Research, the opacity surrounding the deal is deliberate: “It is impossible to know the details of any such agreement because ambiguity itself is part of deterrence.”
Similarly, Joshua White from the Brookings Institution noted that even seasoned observers of Middle Eastern and South Asian affairs were surprised by the announcement. He explained that the agreement formalises and deepens decades of Saudi–Pakistani security and defence cooperation, rooted in a historic protocol dating back to 1982.
Long in the Making, Shaped by New Pressures
Camille Lons, a Gulf expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, emphasised that the pact has been under negotiation for years. While cautioning against linking it exclusively to recent events, she acknowledged that interpreting it as a response to Israel’s growing influence in the region and Saudi doubts about U.S. security guarantees is a valid reading.
Lons added that the undisclosed elements of the agreement likely contain numerous exceptions and sensitive clauses that will remain hidden from public view.
Official Signing in Riyadh
The pact was formally signed in mid-September by Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, according to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).
A joint statement declared that the agreement seeks to:
- Strengthen the two nations’ security,
- Promote peace and stability regionally and globally,
- Expand defence cooperation,
- Establish mutual deterrence against any aggression.
The text affirmed that an attack on either state would be considered an attack on both, underlining the seriousness of the security commitment.
The statement framed the move as a continuation of eight decades of partnership, grounded in Islamic solidarity, shared strategic interests, and long-standing defence cooperation.
A Message to Washington
The Financial Times interpreted the pact as a clear signal to the United States: Riyadh is prepared to diversify its security alliances rather than remain dependent on Washington. By formalising its strategic bond with Pakistan — a nuclear-armed Asian power with historical military ties to the Kingdom — Saudi Arabia underscores its intent to bolster deterrence through multiple partnerships.
Conclusion
The Saudi–Pakistani Strategic Defence Agreement represents both continuity and change. While it builds on decades of military cooperation, its timing and framing suggest a shift in Riyadh’s strategy — seeking new anchors of security amid uncertainty over U.S. commitments and the rise of Israeli influence in the Gulf.
Yet, much of the deal remains deliberately opaque, fuelling speculation about the precise mechanisms of mutual defence and the degree to which both sides are willing to act on its clauses. What is clear is that the pact signals a new chapter in the geopolitics of the Gulf and South Asia, with potential repercussions for regional deterrence and the balance of alliances in the Muslim world.
