The Hebrew daily Maariv has published an opinion piece by writer Boaz Golani, raising the question of whether the international system is edging towards a global confrontation resembling a Third World War. His analysis draws on recent geopolitical developments across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
Golani argued that the massive military parade in Beijing in early September, attended by the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, symbolised the mounting global tensions. These tensions are fuelled by the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising prospects of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, disputes in the South China Sea, and the joint Russian–Chinese push to expand influence in Africa. At the same time, Washington is intensifying moves in Venezuela and showing growing interest in Greenland.
According to Golani, today’s scene carries echoes of the 1930s, when expansionist powers sought to widen their reach — Japan in Korea, Mongolia, and parts of China; Mussolini in Africa; and Hitler in the Sudetenland.
He noted that expansionist ambitions are once again visible: Russian President Vladimir Putin views Luhansk and Donetsk as inseparable parts of Russia, while Chinese President Xi Jinping regards Taiwan as an integral part of China, with military force an option should conditions permit.
Golani further stressed that the deterrence structures built after World War II are weakening. Nuclear deterrence is eroding as North Korea has acquired nuclear weapons, India and Pakistan have become nuclear powers, and Iran continues to challenge the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). At the same time, the United Nations is paralysed by power blocs and veto politics, while globalisation has been undermined by the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions on Russia, which failed to weaken Moscow.
Despite the growing number of conflicts, Golani concluded that the likelihood of a new world war remains low. He pointed to the quick containment of the latest India–Pakistan clash and the West’s caution in avoiding direct engagement in Ukraine as evidence that states still seek to prevent escalation.
Nevertheless, he warned that the danger remains real and requires vigilance. Maintaining communication channels with rivals and avoiding reckless responses, he said, are essential. He closed by urging stronger deterrence mechanisms and active diplomacy to minimise the chances of sliding into a global war.
