On 14 September, after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was shown the two-thousand-year-old stones of the Western Wall in Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the U.S.–Israel alliance was “as strong and solid as these stones we just touched.”
But reality suggests otherwise.
As Israel grows increasingly isolated because of its war on Gaza, its dependence on the United States has deepened rapidly. At the current UN General Assembly session, several of Israel’s oldest allies—including Australia, Britain, Canada, and France—are expected to formally recognise the State of Palestine. With Israel’s relentless settlement expansion in the West Bank making a viable Palestinian state nearly impossible on the ground, Washington remains Israel’s only shield from pariah status—one that carries severe diplomatic, legal, and military consequences.
Erosion of U.S. Public Support
Despite Netanyahu’s rhetoric of strength, cracks are visible. Israel has angered the Trump administration, while U.S. voters across the political spectrum are cooling on the so-called “special ally.” For a small state of just ten million in a hostile region, the loss of American public support would be catastrophic.
Polls show Israel’s standing plunging:
- In 2022, 42% of American adults held a negative view of Israel. Today, that figure has risen to 53%, the highest in 25 years.
- A YouGov–Economist survey found 43% of Americans believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
- Among Democrats over 50, unfavourable views rose 23 points in the past three years.
- Among Republicans under 50, support has halved—down from 63% in 2022.
- Evangelical Christians under 30 who supported Israel fell from 69% (2018) to 34% (2021).
Pollsters say this generational shift is ongoing and difficult to reverse.
From Shared Values to Diverging Paths
The U.S.–Israel alliance was once rooted in shared narratives: both were “democracies founded by pioneers” who saw themselves as exceptional nations—“a city on a hill” and “a light to the nations.”
During the Cold War, Israel was framed as a bulwark against Soviet influence in the Arab world. After 9/11, the two states united under the “war on terror.”
But among Democrats—especially younger voters—values have shifted. Many see parallels between America’s history of slavery and settler-colonialism and Israel’s oppression of Palestinians through occupation and settlement. These comparisons, however imperfect, resonate deeply. Netanyahu’s open alignment with U.S. Republicans only reinforced the partisan divide, alienating Democrats.
For Republicans, fading support is driven more by interests than ideology. Resentment over U.S. funding for Ukraine has spilled into scepticism about the $300 billion Washington has funnelled to Israel since 1948. Israel’s strikes in Qatar and Syria have also complicated Trump’s efforts at regional deal-making, while sections of the GOP donor class increasingly court Gulf monarchies.
Gaza War: Catalyst for Disillusionment
The war on Gaza has accelerated this disaffection. Graphic images of starving children provoke visceral disgust. Prominent conservative voices, such as Tucker Carlson, warn against Israel dragging America into another Middle East war, particularly with Iran.
Meanwhile, accusations of anti-Semitism have lost their deterrent power due to overuse. Critics note that weaponising the charge undermines genuine struggles against anti-Jewish hatred, hurting Jewish communities globally—including in Israel itself.
Optimists vs. Realists
Optimists argue this turbulence is temporary: U.S.–Israeli relations have weathered crises before, and military cooperation is at historic highs. In June, the two militaries conducted joint operations against Iran. Some expect a post-Netanyahu government to renew bridges with Washington, banking on Israel’s military dominance in the Middle East to remain indispensable to America.
But this ignores the deeper reality: long-term shifts in U.S. public opinion are more dangerous than government-to-government spats. Once voters change their convictions, political taboos collapse quickly. Some Israeli analysts already fear Joe Biden may be the last U.S. president with instinctive sympathy for Zionism.
Military Aid and the 2028 Deadline
The ten-year U.S.–Israel aid package provides $3.8 billion annually and expires in 2028. Renewal negotiations were expected soon, but Israel worries Trump might refuse outright grants, preferring to frame assistance as a “partnership.” Money itself is not the core issue; what matters is guaranteed access to advanced weapons and shared technologies—especially in wartime.
The “Sparta” Illusion
Even after Netanyahu, Israel’s politics remain fractured and dominated by hardline nationalism. Expansion of settlements and ambitions to annex Gaza or parts of the West Bank will sustain conflict.
This week Netanyahu described Israel as a “greater Sparta”, prepared to rise alone. But as Israel presses its war on Gaza and launches raids into Arab capitals at will, its leadership bets on military hegemony to guarantee security. In truth, this insular vision is a tragic illusion—one that risks losing its irreplaceable American protector. Such a strategic blunder could mark the gravest error in Israel’s modern history.
