The Hebrew daily Maariv has highlighted growing Israeli concerns over the possibility of a direct confrontation with the Turkish military, amid an ongoing shadow conflict with Ankara over the future of Syria’s political order.
According to the paper, Colonel (res.) Eran Lerman, an expert on Turkish affairs, warned that fighting a Western army equipped with F-16 fighter jets is “a completely different matter.” He stressed that “the Israeli army has never prepared for a confrontation with an army of Turkey’s size — the second-largest in NATO.”
Lerman explained: “This is not comparable to Hamas or Hezbollah. While Israel may enjoy relative air superiority, Turkey’s ground forces are massive. I don’t believe Ankara wants to test Israel, nor vice versa. If a conflict occurs, it will likely be through proxies in Syria and elsewhere.”
Turkey–Israel Tensions Escalate
Maariv noted that Lerman viewed Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent decision as “a deliberate break with the threads that once connected the two countries,” warning that it could pave the way toward deeper deterioration.
The paper also quoted Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a researcher at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, who said he was not surprised by Turkey’s steps. He explained that the process began with Ankara imposing naval restrictions while Israel announced its intention to expand its war in Gaza.
Yanarocak added that Turkey seized upon the incident of Israeli spy devices being uncovered in Syria to justify closing its airspace to Israeli aircraft: “It was obvious this would happen, but they were waiting for a specific incident to play that card.”
Strategic and Economic Repercussions
He warned that the economic consequences would be immediate, as “all flights to Russia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan will now take far longer routes.” But he stressed that the main concern is not economic but strategic.
The report further noted that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has recently discussed regional political and security matters, including Turkish–Israeli relations following Netanyahu’s recognition of the so-called Armenian genocide, tensions with Russia, and Baku’s expanding ties with Ankara.
Aliyev stated: “Today, relations between Turkey and Israel are more strained than ever. If we are asked to mediate, we will. If not, we will pursue quiet diplomatic efforts to find common ground.”
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