Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 was not merely another escalation in the Palestinian–Israeli conflict. It was a watershed event that shook the Middle East and profoundly impacted the trajectory of the growing confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
Since late 2019, when Israel announced a shift in its security doctrine toward Iran and adopted the “Thousand Daggers” strategy, indicators of confrontation had grown sharper. Still, until October 7, 2023, Israeli operations against Iran largely remained within the realm of “covert actions.”
But Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, followed by the movements of Iran’s regional allies, forced Israel into a comprehensive reassessment—pushing it from undeclared warfare to the path of confrontation.
The heavy security and military losses Israel suffered in the early days of Hamas’s assault on towns and settlements near Gaza compelled its leadership to adopt a new strategy of timed, direct retaliation—seeking either to reverse the regional balance or at least restore deterrence by imposing a new equation of power.
By October 8, 2023, with Hezbollah entering limited clashes against Israeli forces to ease pressure on Gaza, Israel realised the “Axis of Resistance” did not intend to launch an all-out regional war on behalf of Hamas, despite talk of “unified fronts.” This gave Tel Aviv greater room for military and political maneuvering—allowing it to focus on Gaza while preparing other fronts, particularly the northern border.
When exchanges of fire between Israel and Lebanon escalated in late September 2024 into a two-month war—ending with Hezbollah scaling back its commitment to tie strikes to Gaza’s battles—it became clear Israel was preparing for a bigger step against Iran.
The 12-Day War and the 2026 Electoral Crisis
On June 13, 2025, the Israeli military launched a 12-day aerial and missile campaign against Iran, echoing tactics it had previously used in Lebanon: air superiority, cross-border missile strikes, drone raids, and targeted assassinations.
This brief but intense war unfolded along two parallel tracks:
- Israeli gains: Assassination of 30 senior Iranian commanders and nearly 300 other personnel (according to official figures), breaking Iran’s control of its airspace, and inflicting major damage on Iran’s military, defensive, offensive, and nuclear infrastructure—all at a lower cost than expected.
- Israeli failures: Inability to sustain Iran’s initial defensive paralysis beyond the first 12 hours, failure to eliminate key political figures, inability to spark domestic unrest in Iran, and—most importantly—failure to achieve regime change.
Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes, despite Israel’s layered air-defence system reinforced by the U.S. THAAD batteries, dealt painful blows. The war ended in a ceasefire after 12 days.
Although the campaign weakened Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, it did not force Tehran into retreat. On the contrary, Iran’s strikes instilled deep fear inside Israeli society. The war modestly boosted Netanyahu and his Likud party ahead of the 2026 elections, but it failed to end his legitimacy crisis after the October 7 defeat.
Polls showed Likud gaining four seats, reaching 54 in total, but were unable to cross the threshold for a governing majority. Within two months of the ceasefire, even these gains evaporated, especially after government declarations of intent to launch another invasion of Gaza. By then, Naftali Bennett’s new party was leading the polls, surpassing Likud.
With only a year left until the October 2026 elections, Netanyahu’s coalition faces not only the risk of failing to recover strength but also the prospect of a heavy political defeat. Time is working against them.
As such, the upcoming elections remain one of the main drivers behind Israeli government decisions in the coming months. Four key security files may serve as Netanyahu’s attempt to regain popularity:
- Radically weakening Iran, possibly driving it toward internal collapse.
- Annexing the West Bank, partially or fully.
- Occupying Gaza and installing an administration hostile to Hamas.
- Disarming Hezbollah and altering southern Lebanon’s demographics.
Signs of acceleration on these fronts are already evident: approval of a plan to invade Gaza despite opposition from Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and the majority of public opinion; advancing the E1 settlement project around Ma’ale Adumim; and continued pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah without any Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas. All point to a time-sensitive race.
Indicators of Renewed War
Looking beyond the June ceasefire, developments point not to de-escalation but escalation. A quadrilateral map of tensions emerges: Iran, Israel, diplomacy, and Israel’s Western allies. The signs lean clearly toward confrontation.
In Israel:
- Import of advanced defence systems.
- Military drills near the Jordanian border (August 10, 2025).
- Netanyahu and journalist Menahe Amir (of Iranian origin) openly incite Iranians to rebel.
- Intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is rebuilding its capabilities.
- Signals of another looming battle in Lebanon.
In Iran:
- Restoring offensive and defensive systems.
- Missile drills (August 22, 2025).
- Refusal to make political concessions after the war.
- Efforts to revive the “Axis of Resistance,” as seen in Ali Larijani’s visits to Baghdad and Beirut.
Despite domestic pressures—such as water and electricity shortages, high inflation, and currency volatility—Iran appears committed to a calibrated escalation. The only exception suggesting restraint is Tehran’s understanding with the International Atomic Energy Agency on the return of inspectors, though its practical impact remains unclear.
Diplomatically:
European “Troika” powers have triggered the “snapback” mechanism to reinstate international sanctions via the UN Security Council. If activated on September 28, 2025, this could pave the way for new military action.
Among Israel’s Western allies:
The past two months show unprecedented readiness—deployment of six THAAD batteries, intensified U.S. surveillance flights over the Gulf, and the suspension of several Western embassies in the region (including Germany’s). These are all signals of preparation for a larger confrontation.
The Next War Window
Given the timing of Israel’s elections, the practical window for launching major military operations against Iran lies between September 2025 and May 2026. The final six months before elections are typically paralysed politically, with major decisions interpreted through an electoral lens.
Conclusion
Since October 7, 2023, the Iranian–Israeli confrontation has shifted into direct warfare. The June 2025 conflict inflicted serious damage on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure but failed to achieve Israel’s ultimate goal of regime change.
In response, Iran’s counter-strikes sent a strong message of resilience, while Netanyahu’s internal crisis and Israel’s loss of deterrence remained unresolved.
The months leading to the 2026 elections are likely to serve as a stage for renewed escalation—potentially fiercer than before—driven by Israel’s internal political pressures and its pursuit of reshaping the regional strategic balance.
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