While Israeli propaganda inflates its narrative, claiming it is “reshaping the Middle East” and portraying itself as a so-called “great power,” Turkey is quietly and steadily working to restore its historical stature in the region. Unlike Israel’s imperial arrogance, Ankara positions itself not as an occupying empire but as a leading civilisation with a humane project rooted in the principle of “partnership, not domination.” This resonates deeply in a region where Islam defines the political and cultural landscape.
On 18 December 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared:
“Every incident in our region — especially in Syria — reminds us of the following truth: Turkey is bigger than Turkey. We cannot, as a nation, limit our horizons. The Turkish nation cannot escape its destiny.”
Only four days later, on 22 December, Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), said:
“History has taught us that the first station on the way to liberating Jerusalem is Damascus. If Damascus is safe, then the time will come for Jerusalem to be safe as well.”
Bahçeli warned Tel Aviv, whose ambitions are directed toward Damascus, that it “will receive an Ottoman slap in Jerusalem.”
Analysts on Turkish affairs have situated these statements — Erdoğan’s and Bahçeli’s — within a civilisational framework: a vision of “New Turkey” as heir to its Ottoman legacy, recalling an empire that once ruled much of the world for over six centuries. This notion unsettles not only Israel but also the United States.
Turkey’s Islamic-inspired policies increasingly resonate among Sunni Muslims and political Islamists across the region. For many, Ankara’s model represents a source of inspiration for reformist aspirations within its wider geographic and cultural environment.
Even Western observers acknowledge this reality. Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, noted:
“It is clear that Turkey will have the most important voice in Damascus in the coming period, and its influence will increasingly expand far beyond.”
He added that Erdoğan is closer than ever to fulfilling his ambition of projecting influence across former Ottoman lands — from the Middle East to North Africa, Libya, and Somalia.
By contrast, Israel remains geographically trapped — confined to the West Bank camps, Gaza’s besieged strip, and the Lebanese border it once occupied before retreating. Turkey, on the other hand, is steadily expanding its reach far beyond its former Ottoman frontiers.
Turkey’s Rise, Israel’s Decline
A report by Sophie Siebban-Bekash and Simon Seroussi for the Atlantic Council highlighted Israel’s collapsing presence in Africa following its brutal war on Gaza. Its influence has shrunk to less than 40% of its former reach, with the state now labelled internationally as a pariah — condemned for crimes against humanity through African diplomatic efforts.
In the 1960s, Israel had 33 embassies in Africa. Today, it maintains only 13 diplomatic missions, 3 trade offices, and 1 military attaché across the continent.
By contrast, Turkey has surged forward. Historically confined mainly to North Africa and the Horn of Africa due to geography and religion, Ankara has expanded into West Africa — including Nigeria, Senegal, and the Sahel states.
- In 2002, Turkey had only 12 embassies in Africa.
- By 2022, this number had grown to 44 embassies.
- Trade between Turkey and Africa rose from $5.4 billion to over $40 billion in the same period.
Ankara has also become a major player in Africa’s shifting security landscape, signing defence agreements with Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, and Rwanda, alongside billion-dollar arms sales.
- In 2011, Turkey delivered humanitarian aid during Somalia’s famine and in 2017 established its largest overseas military base, Turksom, in Mogadishu.
- In 2019, Turkey militarily intervened in Libya, backing the Tripoli government against Khalifa Haftar.
Meanwhile, the disintegration of the global order has weakened the EU’s African strategy and exposed the failure of most US initiatives — leaving space for Ankara to expand at the expense of France, Israel, and other traditional powers.
Beyond Africa: A Global Pivot
Turkey has recently drawn closer to Egypt, due largely to shared stances on Sudan and Gaza. It also carefully balances ties with Morocco and Algeria, despite their rivalry.
In the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, Turkey is seen as less problematic than Moscow and the Wagner Group, and far more popular than Europe’s former colonial powers.
In Asia, where Muslims form up to 40% of the population in vast regions, Israel has found its soft power increasingly blocked after 7 October. By contrast, Central Asian nations look to Turkey as a successful model they could emulate — one that blends Islamic identity with modern statecraft.
Turkey surpasses Israel by belonging to multiple strategic categories simultaneously:
- An EU-linked economy.
- A regional power in the Middle East.
- A maritime centre in the Mediterranean.
- And fundamentally, an Islamic nation.
This multi-layered identity grants Ankara geostrategic weight Israel cannot match.
Turkey also leverages its Turkic identity to strengthen ties with Central Asian “sister states.” As Russia is increasingly isolated from the global economy after its war on Ukraine, Turkey has filled the vacuum in Central Asia with little resistance or political cost.
Even in Europe, Turkey outweighs Israel in economic terms:
- In 2021, Turkey’s exports to the EU reached $93 billion.
- Israel’s exports to the EU were only $18 billion in the same year.
The Turkish Project vs. Israel’s Collapse
Ultimately, the Turkish project — anchored in history, faith, and hard numbers — emerges as the more humane, civilisational, and widely accepted model. It positions Turkey at the centre of a reshaped Middle East, not through coercion, but through consent and credibility.
Israel, by contrast, has buried its illusions of regional acceptance under the rubble of a destroyed Gaza — exposed as arrogant, isolated, and rejected.
