For decades, Saudi Arabia has presented itself as an exception in the political history of the Gulf. While neighbouring emirates and sheikhdoms witnessed bloody contests for power, the Al Saud dynasty boasted of smooth successions built on “consensus” and “obedience.”
Today, however, cracks are widening in this carefully cultivated narrative. Signs are emerging that the internal power struggle could escalate into a violent confrontation—one that threatens the very survival of the royal family in its traditional form.
A Fragile Mechanism of Succession
In 2007, Riyadh established the so-called Allegiance Council, a royal committee of 34 members intended to balance power and ensure unanimous selection of the king. In reality, the body served only as a rubber stamp for palace decisions.
With the rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the committee’s role has all but evaporated. Decision-making is now confined to a narrow inner circle dominated by the young prince.
A History of Suppressed Rebellions
The Al Saud family’s past is not free of internal dissent:
- Prince Talal bin Abdulaziz fled to Beirut and Cairo in the early 1960s, calling for a constitutional monarchy, before returning under the condition of political silence.
- Prince Khalid bin Musaid openly defied King Faisal over the introduction of television, only to be killed in murky circumstances.
Such episodes reveal that the House of Saud—often described as a “sect” bound by secrecy and blind obedience—has also known moments of rebellion and bloodshed. Today, those dynamics reappear in a more complex and volatile context.
Mohammed bin Salman: A Prince Who Rules by Force
Since 2017, MBS has rewritten the rules of succession inside the family. His iron-fisted policies were made clear during the Ritz-Carlton purge, where senior princes and businessmen were detained under the guise of anti-corruption efforts.
Among his targets: former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah, and tycoon Alwaleed bin Talal. The sweep extended even to junior royals—some arrested for protesting budget cuts and rising costs.
Rumours of silent assassinations have long circulated in Saudi circles. In 2015, princes published online letters titled “Warning to Al Saud”, demanding an end to exclusion of Princes Ahmed and Talal. Shortly after, two alleged signatories disappeared. In 2020, reports surfaced of an attempted internal assassination tied to factional disputes.
The message is clear: repression no longer stops at exile or imprisonment. It extends to physical elimination—fueling fears that the struggle could turn openly bloody.
Vertical Succession: Breaking the Old Rules
Since the kingdom’s founding, power shifted horizontally among the sons of King Abdulaziz, the founder. But King Salman upended that tradition, insisting that power pass directly to his son in a vertical succession—a move seen as an internal coup against the custom of balance.
This deprived the descendants of former kings—Fahd, Sultan, Nayef, Abdullah—of their historic claim to the throne. With the founding generation gone, their sons now face only one path to challenge MBS: unconventional methods, potentially violent ones.
Meanwhile, MBS promotes princes from marginal family branches, securing their loyalty while sidelining stronger royal factions. This breeds resentment among excluded princes and recalls the fate of large dynasties where bloodshed became the only means to enforce unity.
Economy as Fuel for Internal Conflict
Falling oil prices and mounting budget deficits have eroded Riyadh’s ability to buy loyalty through lavish patronage. Instead, MBS has raided the fortunes of rivals through “anti-corruption” settlements, funnelling billions into state coffers.
With fewer resources to distribute, repression increasingly substitutes for wealth as the tool of control. At the same time, ordinary Saudis face soaring living costs, subsidy cuts, and shrinking freedoms—raising the spectre of popular unrest alongside royal infighting, a “Saudi Spring” the monarchy has long feared.
Foreign Adventures, Domestic Failures
MBS’s aggressive regional policies have further exposed Saudi vulnerabilities:
- The disastrous war in Yemen drained resources and tarnished the kingdom’s image.
- The blockade of Qatar backfired diplomatically.
- Confrontations with Iran and Turkey increased isolation.
Western media once branded him a “reformer,” but today his reputation is mired in failures abroad and repression at home. These external setbacks feed his insecurity and ruthlessness, raising the likelihood of violent escalation within the royal house.
An Open Struggle for an Uncertain Future
All signs point to unprecedented turmoil inside the House of Saud. Once hidden behind palace doors, arrests, exclusions, and even suspected assassinations are spilling into the public eye.
Suppose Mohammed bin Salman persists on his current path. In that case, Saudi Arabia may witness its first open and bloody confrontation among Al Saud factions since the kingdom’s creation—with grave regional and international repercussions amid economic decline and waning political influence.
The pressing question now: Will MBS succeed in tightening his grip to the end? Or will fractures within the ruling family explode into a princely war that engulfs the kingdom?
