In a recent essay published in Foreign Policy, Steven Cook, a Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, reflected on an eye-opening trip he made to Hong Kong last spring. There, in conversations with mainland Chinese officials and academics, he was struck by one statement regarding the Middle East:
“We only want to buy from the Middle East and sell to it. That is all.”
For years, Western analysts have repeated this line to describe China’s approach to the region: transactional, commercial, detached from politics. But Cook raises the question — is Beijing’s posture now changing?
After the Iran–Israel Clash: A Shift in China’s Calculus
Following the June clashes between Iran and Israel, multiple reports surfaced detailing Beijing’s efforts to help Tehran rebuild its military capabilities. If accurate, this would mark a striking departure from China’s long-touted neutrality in Middle Eastern conflicts.
Why the change? Cook argues that Beijing may now see its vast investments in Iran as requiring protection — even if that means stepping into the region’s military balance. A proxy confrontation reminiscent of the 1980s, when Washington and Moscow turned the Middle East into a chessboard, could be on the horizon. The United States and Israel inflicted heavy damage on Iran, and Beijing, seeking to shield its energy security, appears ready to step in.
Beijing’s Interests: Oil, Stability, and Access
At its core, China’s strategy remains anchored in energy. Nearly 13% of its crude imports come from Iran — an indispensable share for the world’s largest oil consumer, averaging over 11 million barrels per day in 2024. In 2021, Tehran and Beijing signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement, reportedly worth $400 billion, promising discounted oil supplies in exchange for Chinese investment in Iran’s energy and infrastructure sectors.
While the final terms of the deal remain unpublished, drafts pointed to not only energy flows but also defense and security cooperation. This underlines why Beijing sees Iran’s stability as critical to its own economic and geostrategic security.
Diverging Paths: Washington vs Beijing
The United States and China share overlapping interests in the Middle East — free navigation, stable oil markets, and regional calm. Yet instead of cooperation, both find themselves entrenched in competition driven by the broader U.S.–China rivalry over Taiwan and global order.
The Red Sea crisis illustrates this divergence. Washington has relied on direct military strikes against Yemen’s Houthis to protect shipping — often at the cost of global criticism and entanglement. Beijing, meanwhile, struck quiet deals with the Houthis to secure Chinese shipping lanes without firing a shot. For China, this was an elegant way to embarrass Washington while safeguarding its interests.
At the same time, China’s military base in Djibouti serves as a vantage point to study U.S. naval operations — lessons with potential application to the Taiwan Strait.
Playing the “Palestine Card”
Cook highlights another dimension: China’s rhetoric on Palestine. Traditionally cautious in its criticism of Israel, Beijing has adopted unusually harsh language since the most recent Israeli aggression on Gaza. This, however, is not out of solidarity with the Palestinian people, he argues, but rather a calculated move to tie Washington to Israel’s war crimes, further damaging America’s image in the Global South.
For Beijing, denouncing Israel serves as a cost-free method of winning political capital while exposing U.S. hypocrisy on human rights. By contrast, its partnership with Iran is rooted not in rhetoric but in hard necessity — oil.
Why a Weak Iran Hurts China
Israel’s high-tech strikes, assisted by U.S. bombardment of three Iranian nuclear sites, have left Tehran’s military weakened. For Beijing, this creates two problems:
- It reinforces U.S. dominance in the region just as many believed Washington was retreating toward Asia.
- It destabilises Iran — risking oil disruptions that would hit China hardest.
As history shows, great powers respond swiftly to preserve clients. Just as the Soviet Union rushed to rebuild Egypt’s military after the 1967 defeat, Beijing now faces pressure to rebuild Iran’s air defenses and missile stockpiles.
Toward a New Cold War?
The parallels with the Cold War are imperfect. Unlike El Salvador in the 1980s, Israel is not a client state but a powerful regional actor with deep economic ties to China itself. Still, the echoes are unmistakable. The U.S. is committed to guaranteeing Israel’s military edge, while Beijing appears ready to restore Iran’s deterrence against Israeli threats.
If another Iran–Israel war erupts, both powers are likely to intervene indirectly, repeating a cycle of escalation that risks dragging the entire region into a new era of great-power confrontation.
Cook concludes that while the comparison is not exact, the return of “zero-sum” dynamics — where every gain for one superpower is a loss for the other — makes the Middle East look increasingly like a renewed Cold War battleground.
The only solution for a peaceful Middle East is to get rid of the apartheid zionist regime in occupied Palestine period
Frankly it’s too damned Iong overdue that Muslim countries with sane governments should return to the status quo boycott of Israel and all her products. A military force that is representative of all Muslim countries should be summoned in conjunction with other right thinking nations in the absence of UN ability to act decisively in this glaring madness which seeks to destabilise the world order if there is even anything of such description that exists any longer Then of course the only and truly real antidote to anti Muslim upheavals across the entire globe is for Muslims to engage proactively and consistently in dawah
The latter should be seen as the real solution while any other are mere remedial measures which can be lightened when a positive and non-provicative posture is reverted to
Frankly it’s too damned Iong overdue that Muslim countries with sane governments should return to the status quo boycott of Israel and all her products. A military force that is representative of all Muslim countries should be summoned in conjunction with other right thinking nations in the absence of UN ability to act decisively in this glaring madness which seeks to destabilise the world order if there is even anything of such description that exists any longer Then of course the only and truly real antidote to anti Muslim upheavals across the entire globe is for Muslims to engage proactively and consistently in dawah
The latter should be seen as the real solution while any other are mere remedial measures which can be lightened when a positive and non-provicative posture is reverted to