The American magazine National Interest has published a new report warning that the danger of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS/Daesh) did not end with the fall of its self-declared caliphate. On the contrary, the organisation has become more widespread, flexible, and decentralised, operating across borders with a network-based structure.
According to the report, ISIS has successfully reorganised its ranks, exploiting fragile states, weak governance, and porous border controls. These vulnerabilities have enabled its presence to expand from the African Sahel to South Asia, posing a renewed transnational threat.
Africa: The New Epicentre of ISIS Operations
The report highlights that Africa has become ISIS’s most active theatre of operations.
- In Nigeria, its West Africa Province has escalated attacks using roadside bombs, ambushes, and raids.
- In Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, ISIS-linked Allied Democratic Forces continue committing massacres against civilians.
- In Mozambique, ISIS targets energy infrastructure and local officials, seeking to undermine governance and extend its reach towards the western coasts.
This strategic focus on Africa reflects ISIS’s attempt to exploit ungoverned spaces and resource-rich areas while destabilising fragile governments.
ISIS-Khorasan: Rising Threat in South and Central Asia
The report notes that ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) has intensified operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, carrying out attacks against:
- Taliban authorities,
- Shi’a communities,
- and foreign interests.
Tactics include suicide bombings and complex urban assaults, designed to destabilise the region and attract recruits from Central Asia. These efforts reflect the group’s ambition to challenge the Taliban’s legitimacy while positioning itself as a global jihadist alternative.
Western Concerns: Lone-Wolf Attacks and Digital Propaganda
Beyond Africa and Asia, the report warns that ISIS remains active in encouraging individual attacks in Western countries. Using encrypted communication channels and digital propaganda, it continues to inspire lone-wolf operations.
In late 2024, the UK’s intelligence chief warned that ISIS remains the “most significant terrorist threat” to Britain, urging governments to address the root causes of extremism rather than merely responding to attacks.
Conclusion: A Warning Against Complacency
The National Interest concludes that the fight against ISIS requires pre-emptive and coordinated action. Waiting until violence reaches one’s doorstep, the magazine warns, is no longer an acceptable option.
ISIS’s shift from a territorial caliphate to a borderless, decentralised insurgency makes it harder to contain, and its growing presence in Africa and South Asia suggests that the global threat is far from over.
