In a notable move reflecting both strategic foresight and geopolitical concern, the Turkish National Intelligence Academy published an extensive study on the recent Iran–Israel war. The study’s significance does not stem solely from the scale of the conflict or the insights it offers, but from what it implies: Turkey may be targeted by similar wars shortly. This was the key takeaway drawn by the academy’s analysts.
Background: Intelligence Goes Academic
The Turkish National Intelligence Academy was established in January 2024, and its launch was officially announced by İbrahim Kalın, head of Turkish Intelligence (MİT), during the organisation’s 97th anniversary in October 2024.
Designed to function as a higher education institution within the MİT structure, the academy aims to inject academic depth into the intelligence field—through scientific research, advanced education, and public studies in national security and intelligence. Its publications target both the Turkish academic and public spheres, as well as the intelligence community itself.
On August 1st, 2025, the Academy released a 58-page report titled:
“The 12-Day War: Lessons for Turkey.”
It is structured into a preface and three core chapters:
- Traditional and hybrid warfare techniques
- Assessments and extracted lessons
- Possible future scenarios
It concludes with a standalone chapter:
“Strategic Outcomes and Necessary Measures for Turkey.”
Key Strategic Assessment
In his introduction, Dr. Talha Köse, head of the academy, frames the Iran–Israel war within two central events:
- The consequences of the October 7, 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood Operation
- The collapse of Iran–U.S. nuclear negotiations
According to the study, both Iran and Israel radically shifted their military strategies, making this war a defining turning point in the region’s balance of power.
The report concludes that Iran suffered greater losses, due to:
- Israel’s superior military technology
- A surprise attack doctrine
- Advanced intelligence operations
- Unwavering support from its Western allies—primarily the United States
Despite Israeli hopes, no internal uprising materialised in Iran. On the contrary, Iranians—especially those abroad—rallied around their homeland, highlighting that internal unity in Iran is closely tied to the outcome of such wars.
Airpower, Cyber Warfare, and Intelligence
The war, according to the report, reemphasised the critical role of air superiority, particularly in short-duration conflicts between countries without shared borders. Israel’s dominance in the skies gave it a clear advantage, while Iran tried to compensate with hypersonic ballistic missile technology.
Other vital lessons included:
- Cyberwarfare, disinformation, and propaganda played significant roles
- Israel’s covert network inside Iran proved tactically effective
- Civil defence infrastructure—such as early warning systems and shelters—was key to reducing civilian casualties. Iran’s lack of such systems worsened its losses.
Future War Scenarios
The study outlines three possible future trajectories in the Iran–Israel–U.S. triangle:
- Return to nuclear negotiations
- Failure of diplomatic efforts
- Renewed escalation into full-scale war
Beyond analysis, the report positions the war as a new template for modern hybrid warfare, where military power is only one piece of a larger puzzle that includes:
- Psychological operations
- Information warfare
- Internal destabilisation
- Foreign alliances
What This Means for Turkey
The Academy does not simply assess the Iran–Israel war; it draws direct, urgent lessons for Turkey, considering it an increasingly likely target of similar conflict scenarios.
This aligns with previous statements by President Erdoğan, who has repeatedly warned of the need to:
- Strengthen Turkey’s defensive capabilities
- Prepare for regional destabilisation, particularly from Israel’s persistent aggression
Key Recommendations for Turkey:
- Air Power is Crucial:
Turkey must continue:- Expanding its domestic defence manufacturing
- Integrating drone and unmanned systems with manned aircraft
- Modernising its air fleet
- New batches of F-16 fighters from the United States
- Negotiations for Eurofighter jets from European suppliers
- Upgrades and maintenance of existing air assets
- Multi-Layered Air Defence:
Turkey must develop and deploy multi-tiered air defence systems across the country.
Equally critical is the development of hypersonic missile programs, similar to Iran’s, which proved strategically valuable. - Civil Defence Readiness:
Iran’s civilian losses exposed the cost of poor infrastructure.
Turkey is advised to:- Build comprehensive early warning systems
- Construct nationwide, secure public shelters
- Cybersecurity & Sovereign Networks:
The threat of espionage and cyberwarfare means Turkey must:- Build indigenous communication systems
- Protect state institutions from digital infiltration and data leaks
- Internal Cohesion as National Defence:
The study highlights the importance of a united home front.
In this context, Ankara’s recent efforts to resolve the Kurdish issue under the banner of a “Terror-Free Turkey” project directly support national unity in wartime conditions.
Final Thoughts: Turkey Must Prepare for What May Come
While Turkey remained neutral during the 12-day war—offering itself as a mediator between Iran and the U.S. through Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan—the National Intelligence Academy warns:
Turkey is no longer a bystander. The state now sees itself as a potential target, especially from Israel, even if the report does not state this explicitly.
In conclusion, Turkey’s military strategy, according to this report, is being reoriented not against Iran, but to counter potential Israeli aggression.
The message is clear: Turkey must learn from the Iran–Israel war not only as an observer, but as a regional power that may soon face similar threats.
