Could the Conflict Ignite Between Turkey and India in the Indian Ocean?

“The integrated air defences stood like a barrier wall—Pakistani efforts failed to breach them. Whether Turkish drones or others, they couldn’t match Indian technology,” said Awadhish Bharti, former Director of Air Operations for the Indian Army, describing his country’s defence performance during the recent May clash with Pakistan over Kashmir. The specific claim that Turkish drones were intercepted underscores growing tensions between India and Turkey, fueled by Turkey’s expanding military partnership with Pakistan.

Rising Diplomatic and Economic Fallout

After the brief India–Pakistan confrontation:

• India blocked TRT World’s official account on X and suspended contracts with Turkish company Çelebi Aviation at nine airports, triggering a 20% drop in its share value.
• Several Indian universities—including Jawaharlal Nehru University and Jamia Millia Islamia—paused all academic agreements with Turkish institutions.

This institutional rift has filtered into public life: consumer boycotts of Turkish goods coordinated by Hindu nationalist groups swept the nation. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) declared a nationwide boycott, affecting over ten million stores and trade worth approximately $250 million.
Major e‑commerce platforms such as Flipkart announced boycotts of Turkish brands including LC Waikiki, Mavi, and Trendyol. Protestors in the streets carried banners displaying the flags of China, Pakistan, and Turkey, demanding economic and cultural distancing.

Historical Context: Turkey’s Shift Toward Asia

Tensions have been building for years. Turkey increasingly backed Pakistan concerning Kashmir, especially after India revoked Jammu & Kashmir’s special constitutional status in 2019. That same year, Turkey launched its “Asia Anew” strategic vision, expanding its military, diplomatic, and commercial footprint across continental Asia—moving beyond its traditional ties to Central Asia and Pakistan.

Turkey’s military reach extended into the Horn of Africa, most notably through the establishment of its largest foreign base, Turksom in Mogadishu (2017). Through agreements in 2024–25, Turkey secured substantial economic concessions in Somali waters and began arms exports to Kenya and long-range drone collaboration with Pakistan. Turkish drones have become operational in countries like Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Sudan.

Turkey’s Naval Reach into the Indian Ocean

Turkey’s presence in the Indian Ocean intensified:

• Maldives signed a 2024 deal for six Turkish drones and hosted the Turkish warship, Kinali Ada.
• A refurbished Turkish gunboat, Vulkan, was deployed to the Maldives in early 2025, raising eyebrows given the archipelago’s limited strategic threats.

Meanwhile, Ankara has been helping modernise Sri Lanka’s navy since 2021 and remains the second-largest arms supplier to both Pakistan and Bangladesh, including warship projects such as the MILGEM frigates.
Turkey previously signed a $2 billion naval contract with India over a decade ago, but Delhi cancelled it amid concerns over Ankara’s closeness to Islamabad. India later halted all Turkish military exports, escalating the diplomatic chill.

The 2025 Conflagration and Strategic Clash

During May 2025’s India–Pakistan conflict, codenamed Operation Sindoor:

• Pakistan deployed 300–400 Turkish-made Songar or Bayraktar drones to launch cross-border strikes at 36 targets across Kashmir and mainland India, per Indian government reports
• Two Turkish military operatives were reportedly killed in operation, suggesting deep involvement by Ankara.

In response to Turkish military support for Pakistan:

• India revoked Celebi Aviation’s security clearance and halted its operations at major airports, citing national security risks
• Public outrage led to tourism and trade boycotts, academic partnerships suspended, and calls for broader isolation of Turkey and Azerbaijan

Will Tensions Escalate into a Direct Clash?

Turkey’s expanding naval and military footprint in the Indian Ocean—from drone exports to Somali bases—now directly challenges Indian strategic priorities and regional dominance. Delhi views Ankara’s support for Pakistan and its broader alignment in Asia as a direct threat.
Turkey’s growing influence has prompted India to align more closely with Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Armenia—marking a clear strategic split. Meanwhile, Turkey’s expansion into Asia tests India’s own ambition to shape regional security and economic landscapes.