Following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel—brokered by the United States and Qatar after twelve days of intense fighting—most analysts have concluded that the truce rests on fragile ground, with the possibility of renewed confrontation always looming. Many agree that the conflict has now shifted back into the “grey zone” warfare, where confrontation resumes covertly, away from conventional battlefields.
For over two decades preceding the June war, Israel relied on covert security operations to target Iran, while the Islamic Republic pursued its “Ring of Fire” strategy, confronting Israeli interests through a wide regional network.
In this new mode of conflict, both sides aim to inflict strategic damage below the threshold of open war, using clandestine strikes and proxy operations to achieve objectives typically reserved for traditional military campaigns.
A Shadow War Resumes
More than forty days after the formal end of direct hostilities, both Iran and the Israeli-occupied territories have witnessed a series of mysterious events, ranging from explosions to fires and cyberattacks. None of these incidents has been formally attributed to the opposing side. Local media in both countries have often described them as “technical malfunctions” or “isolated accidents.”
However, the pattern suggests otherwise.
These incidents have gone beyond traditional sabotage and assassinations, expanding to include cyber warfare and sophisticated operations likely involving Iran’s regional allies, particularly in the Red Sea theatre.
Gas Leak or Covert War?
Despite the temporary freeze in direct attacks, the intelligence war between Iran and Israel has entered a new phase. The timeline is telling:
- June 28, 2025 – Just four days after the ceasefire, mysterious explosions occurred in western Tehran.
- June 29 – An explosion at the Tabriz refinery was attributed to a nitrogen tank accident by Iranian media.
- July 1 – A series of blasts rocked the Shahriar district in southeast Tehran province.
- July 14 – An explosion occurred in a residential complex in Bardisam, Qom.
- July 19 – A suspicious fire erupted in Unit 70 of the Abadan oil refinery, killing one worker.
Several of these incidents were vaguely blamed on gas leaks, while others remain unexplained.
Notably, neither Iran nor Israel has publicly acknowledged responsibility, nor has Tehran accused Tel Aviv of orchestrating these incidents. This strategic silence appears deliberate—suggesting Iran wishes to avoid escalation or an open confrontation at this time.
Analysts point to Unit Caesarea of Mossad—tasked with complex covert operations such as assassinations and sabotage—as the likely culprit. Additionally, Metsada, known as the “Special Operations Branch,” is believed to conduct paramilitary operations abroad, often outside Israel’s borders.
Retaliation Inside the Occupied Territories
Interestingly, similar incidents have occurred within Israel:
- June 30 – Reports emerged that Israeli settlers attacked a high-security military installation, breaching advanced surveillance systems and setting the compound on fire.
- July 25 – The Israeli government announced an “unusual technical failure” in the national power grid, causing major blackouts across Tel Aviv. The outages triggered a series of explosions and electrical fires in high-voltage stations and major substations.
- Prior Week – Similar electrical failures were recorded in occupied Jerusalem.
In a separate development, on July 6, Ansarullah (the Houthis) launched a new wave of missiles targeting Israeli territory—an extension of Iran’s asymmetric warfare through regional proxies.
This string of attacks signals that Iran, alongside its allies, is actively engaging Israeli and allied assets both inside the occupied territories and across the region, aiming to counterbalance Israeli superiority in the fields of cyber warfare and surveillance.
The Shadow of War Returns
Israel and the United States failed to achieve their primary objectives during the twelve-day war. No new security architecture has emerged for West Asia, increasing the likelihood of a second round of military escalation.
This possibility was further inflamed by a statement from Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s top negotiator, to Fox News confirming Iran’s continued uranium enrichment. His comments triggered a sharp response from U.S. President Donald Trump, who posted a threat on social media, warning of a potential renewed strike on Iran “if necessary.”
Meanwhile, Israeli Defence Minister Yisrael Katz convened with top military leaders, stressing the need for a comprehensive strategy to prevent Iran from reviving its nuclear and missile programs.
According to Newsweek, Iran’s military commanders have reiterated their full readiness, vowing that any new aggression from Tel Aviv or Washington would be met with decisive retaliation and that “mercy will not be shown.”
Preparing for the Next Phase
Amid these heated political and military declarations, the region is hurtling toward what experts now call an “asymmetric conflict in the gray zone.” The probability of renewed military confrontation is growing.
Israel’s insistence on preemptive strikes and its strategic reliance on surprise means that any new war may begin without warning.
However, given that the element of surprise has already been used, Israel may attempt a more advanced tactic, such as:
- The assassination of a senior Iranian official,
- A cyber-infiltration similar to the Beirut pager incident, or
- The bombing of a high-profile Iranian facility, aimed at destabilising command structures and laying the groundwork for a wider assault.
