The National Interest magazine has projected that Iran is likely to accelerate the production of its nuclear weapons in light of stalled negotiations with the United States and the continued absence of an agreement on its nuclear program.
The American publication stated, “Without a nuclear deal with the United States, Iran is expected to move more rapidly toward building nuclear weapons.”
It added that, in a region known for its volatile shifts, the revival of nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran represents the latest chapter in a long-standing conflict between the two rivals.
The report noted that the deterrence framework, which had previously shaped the region before October 7, 2023, has now collapsed — along with the rules that once governed it — increasing the risk of miscalculations.
The magazine described Iran’s decision to halt cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on July 2 as a pivotal development. According to the report, Tehran views this move as a signal of potential withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
The magazine explained that this context helps to interpret Iran’s strategy of “nuclear ambiguity” — whereby it suspends cooperation with the IAEA, yet leaves the door open for resumption under specific conditions, thereby presenting a potential offramp that could be integrated into future agreements.
By not immediately withdrawing from the NPT, Iran also maintains an escalation ladder, leaving room for future manoeuvres should conflict reignite.
The analysis added that if negotiations collapse — especially due to Iran’s insistence on enriching uranium (a strong possibility given current internal dynamics) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely pressure Washington to carry out further strikes.
With Trump rejecting the latest ceasefire and favouring coercive tactics to secure deals, a renewed conflict seems increasingly likely.
In turn, Iran would find itself compelled to expedite its push for a nuclear weapon. At a minimum, it may follow through on its threats to withdraw from the treaty, thereby reducing transparency around its nuclear activities and potentially launching harsher attacks on U.S. and Israeli positions in the region.
The magazine noted that this scenario has a name: “The War That Never Ends” — one that would come at the cost of countless Iranian, Israeli, and American lives.
It concluded by stating that ultimately, the most effective way to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is through a negotiated agreement. Trump, the article asserts, holds the reins and has a chance to prove his claims of seeking peace. But so far, these claims remain unproven.
