The Middle East — and indeed the entire world — breathed a sigh of relief on 24 June 2025, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, bringing an end to a brutal 12-day war.
This ceasefire is a temporary diplomatic achievement that reflects the desire of all parties to avoid a prolonged war that could plunge the region into even greater chaos. Yet, this conflict is merely the latest chapter in the deeply rooted Israel–Iran confrontation — and may well be a prelude to far more dangerous confrontations ahead.
A Tactical Pause, Not a Strategic End
The ceasefire represents a tactical victory for all stakeholders involved. For the United States and Israel, the strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities were touted as a strategic success, with Washington claiming they dealt significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program.
President Trump stressed that the military operation achieved its objectives without dragging the United States into a full-scale regional war — in line with his policy of avoiding direct military entanglement in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Israel suffered considerable damage from unprecedented Iranian missile strikes, making de-escalation an urgent necessity to limit human and economic losses.
From Tehran’s perspective, the ceasefire offers a critical chance to avoid a drawn-out war that could have posed an existential threat to the regime. Despite the damage inflicted on its nuclear infrastructure, Iran insists its program remains intact and has not been decisively crippled.
This narrative reflects Tehran’s determination to maintain its image as a resilient regional power capable of confronting its adversaries — despite the devastating costs of war. Yet, the agreement does not resolve the fundamental conflict at the heart of the Israeli–Iranian standoff.
Crossing Psychological Thresholds
Over the years, this conflict has evolved from proxy confrontations across the region to more open, direct clashes — especially following the events of 7 October 2023, which marked a turning point. The recent war shattered long-standing psychological barriers that once restrained direct confrontation, making the outbreak of another war in the future more likely.
Estimating the true extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program is challenging. President Trump declared that U.S. and Israeli strikes had completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear sites, but Israeli assessments have been far more cautious.
Israeli intelligence reports indicate that the strikes inflicted significant damage but did not eliminate the program entirely. Meanwhile, Iran downplays the impact, asserting that its nuclear capabilities remain operational and effective.
Renewed Nuclear Negotiations — But with Realistic Limits
This fragile ceasefire is expected to pave the way for the resumption of nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Western powers. However, the notion that Iran will fully abandon its nuclear ambitions appears unrealistic — especially as Tehran seeks to present itself as the victor of this war. Even a limited nuclear program will remain a constant source of tension between Iran and its adversaries.
Despite the damage Iran has suffered — militarily and economically — this war could well produce a bolder state, less constrained by the limitations that once moderated its regional behavior.
A More Defiant Iran
Before this conflict, Iran often exercised restraint in its clashes with Israel and the United States, fearing the consequences of a direct war. But the recent round of hostilities, marked by Iran’s unprecedented missile attacks on Israeli cities, shattered this psychological threshold.
In the future, Iran may be more willing to respond forcefully to any provocation — raising the risk of escalation. Moreover, the war has exposed vulnerabilities in Iran’s defenses, pushing Tehran to accelerate efforts to strengthen its military arsenal, including ballistic missiles and drones.
A Persistent Strategic Threat
Inside Israel, there is broad consensus within political and security circles that Iran will remain a strategic threat as long as the current regime holds power in Tehran.
Despite the blows suffered by Iran and its regional allies — notably Hezbollah in Lebanon and its presence in Syria — Tehran will likely work to rebuild its regional network.
Hezbollah, in particular, is viewed as Iran’s forward defense line and restoring its strength will be a top priority in the coming years. At the same time, Iran will seek to deepen ties with the Houthis in Yemen and allied groups in Iraq to preserve its regional influence. This strategy reflects Iran’s belief that its regional allies act as a forward shield against direct threats.
The Risk of a Future War
The prospect of another war between Israel and Iran remains one of the greatest threats to Middle East stability. The recent conflict has already shown how any spark can escalate quickly into a full-scale confrontation — especially now that the psychological barriers to direct conflict have crumbled.
Under an unpredictable U.S. administration, the risks will remain elevated — at least until the end of Trump’s current term. Meanwhile, the mutual missile barrages that caused heavy losses on both sides suggest that any future war will be even more destructive.
Despite the ceasefire, the underlying conflict will keep tensions alive. In truth, the most dangerous phase may have already begun: the dynamics that once kept this rivalry in check have eroded, and without a comprehensive deal to resolve core disputes, this standoff remains a ticking time bomb — ready to explode at any moment.
