Israelis are currently absorbed by a cluster of pressing files: the drive to fully integrate the Arab region into the Abraham Accords; an intense focus on Syria and the possibilities of striking a peace arrangement; potential scenarios for the future of their genocidal war on Gaza; and the effort to consolidate what they see as gains from the recent aggression against Iran.
In this context, several developments stand out — from the meetings of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet to weigh scenarios for managing the war on Gaza, to the visit of Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to Washington. Dermer’s visit appears to be part of ongoing discussions with the Americans about these three interconnected files, possibly laying the groundwork for Netanyahu’s trip to Washington for face-to-face talks. Any final Israeli decision on which Gaza scenario to pursue will likely hinge on these high-level deliberations.
Why Syria — and Why Now?
Israeli discourse about peace with Syria has become unusually prominent, far exceeding what the publicly known facts would suggest is realistic right now. Still, it is important to understand why Tel Aviv is so fixated on this track despite the current circumstances. This push aligns with Washington’s clear interest, itself tied to the roles of America’s regional proxies, in stabilising Syria through the new administration there.
Since the recent changes in Syria’s political landscape, Israel has expanded its footprint in Syrian territory, not merely to strengthen its security positions against possible future threats, but also to use active military initiatives as leverage in the political arena. The core objective of this military aggression is to gain bargaining chips that can shape decisions of the new Syrian leadership — all in service of Israel’s larger ambition to redraw the map of the Arab region.
Adding weight to these factors, former US President Donald Trump’s signing of an executive order lifting some sanctions on Syria signals that something bigger may be forming. Any such plan would likely need a carefully crafted formula that lets all parties involved save face, especially given that any “normalisation” arrangement must navigate the explosive reality of Israel’s ongoing war of extermination in Gaza. Pushing for an Arab-Israeli settlement during a massacre is hardly feasible from a propaganda standpoint, no matter what form that arrangement takes — whether it’s a final comprehensive agreement or a phased roadmap towards one.
Nonetheless, the long-standing suffering of the Syrian people, their desperate need for stability, and the massive task of rebuilding their devastated country remain cards Israel tries to play. This is accompanied by relentless media campaigns that downplay the threat Israel poses — propaganda that has only intensified even after Iran’s influence has waned in Syria and diminished in Lebanon.
Inside Israel’s Cabinet: Three Gaza Scenarios
Israeli sources have leaked details from the Israeli security and political cabinet’s recent debates, outlining three core scenarios for Gaza:
- Expanding the war into a full military occupation with martial law, regardless of the human and material costs;
- Striking a prisoner-exchange deal;
- Maintaining a brutal siege until Gaza is crushed into submission.
Within these heated discussions, some Israeli officials floated additional ideas, such as increasing the number of humanitarian aid distribution points or constructing a controlled civilian zone in Rafah to relocate residents from across Gaza — all on the divisive notion of separating those loyal to Hamas from those who are not.
According to these same Israeli sources, nothing has been decided yet. Reports even emerged of a sharp clash between Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who accused the military of dragging its feet and failing to complete its mission. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is said to favour pursuing a deal.
Propaganda and Real Risk: A Warning
It is true that the Israeli media machine — in close coordination with the United States — is fully mobilised to serve Israel’s military and intelligence objectives, often through deliberate deception. This demands that every dangerous possibility be taken seriously, including Israel’s potential to escalate its offensive in Gaza, carry out high-level assassinations abroad, attempt daring hostage rescues within Gaza, or even ignite another regional war.
Still, there is reason to treat these leaked cabinet discussions with care: they expose Israel’s growing inability to resolve its Gaza dilemma.
Gaza vs. Lebanon and Iran: A Crucial Distinction
It is vital to distinguish Gaza’s reality from that of Lebanon and Iran. Some commentators — explicitly or implicitly — blame Hamas for prolonging the war because of its tough negotiating stance. But the opposite is true: Hamas has never been offered a “calm-for-calm” formula like the one discussed with Iran, nor even a punitive ceasefire deal like what unfolded with Lebanon. Instead, Israel has focused purely on recovering its captives while continuing the war, but Hamas has complicated Israel’s plans through its refusal to surrender — making decisive victory even harder for Tel Aviv.
Israel’s current war on Gaza was not the short, decisive blow it had planned. The protracted conflict has made an Israeli “solution” all the more urgent, particularly after Tel Aviv claims its recent operations against Iran were successful and could be leveraged to cement its regional standing.
Since the prisoner deal scenario is actively debated within Israel’s leadership — and with the US directly involved — it may well emerge, especially as it comes attached to potential normalisation carrots for Israel. Even America’s meddling in Netanyahu’s legal troubles cannot be seen in isolation from these regional manoeuvres. Whether the US and Israel will soon present a new proposal depends on what is shaped behind closed doors between Trump and Netanyahu.
No Room for Complacency
Yet none of this speculation should distract from the grim reality that Israel’s other scenarios remain on the table — including a push for full-scale genocide and occupation. Such plans, though costly and divisive even within Israel’s military establishment, cannot be dismissed. Israel has a long track record of executing its boldest and most brutal schemes: from occupying Rafah, to devastating Khan Yunis and displacing its people, to the infamous “Gideon chariots” operations, to daring missions like the rescue of four Israeli captives in the Nuseirat refugee camp on 8 June 2024 — which left 274 Palestinian civilians dead and hundreds more wounded.
While Trump continues to supply Israel with bombs and munitions worth more than half a billion dollars, and while the Arab region remains either paralysed or complicit, Israel’s losses are being replenished — even as the prolonged conflict strains its army, its reserves, its domestic politics, and its economy. Meanwhile, the people of Gaza stand alone, paying the price daily in blood. Every day of this siege carries the price of dozens more Palestinians killed — and every scenario, no matter how reckless, must be treated as a real threat.
