Israel’s war with Iran has upended the Middle East’s strategic balance and thrown the anticipated Saudi-Israeli normalisation process into disarray, exposing Tel Aviv’s appetite for risk and force projection — but also sowing anxiety among its allies instead of reassurance.
A new report by The Wall Street Journal — authored by reporters Stephen Kalin and Summer Said — argues that Israel’s perceived military success against Iran is actually undermining one of Saudi Arabia’s key incentives for normalisation, raising fresh fears over Israel’s growing regional power.
The report highlights a sweeping geopolitical reset in the region, albeit not as the United States and its local partners had envisioned just two years ago. Before the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on 7 October 2023, years of painstaking diplomacy had brought Saudi Arabia to the threshold of a historic deal to establish diplomatic ties with Israel. Such an agreement would have consolidated an Arab-Israeli alliance against Iran, secured American security guarantees for Saudi Arabia, and opened the door for broader Arab and Muslim acceptance of Israel.
However, this month’s tit-for-tat bombardments between Israel and its long-standing rival Iran have upended the assumptions behind that plan. In just twelve days, this conflict has disrupted a series of proxy wars that had weakened Iran’s allies, pushed the Assad regime in Syria closer to collapse, and left Iran itself increasingly cornered.
Trump and the Israeli government had signalled their readiness for a renewed normalisation push, but with Iran weakened, Riyadh’s incentive to ignore other risks and press ahead has diminished. Saudi leaders now want time to assess the unsettling demonstration of Israel’s military and intelligence capabilities — and its willingness to use them with little restraint.
The reporters note that senior Gulf officials are concerned that their investments in ties with Washington — including hosting President Trump’s high-profile visit to the Gulf last month — have yielded little leverage. Trump’s repeated encouragement of Israeli attacks and threats against Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have only heightened Gulf fears of a wider regional war.
Eventually, Trump ordered a limited strike on key Iranian nuclear sites, then brokered a ceasefire to halt the fighting — at one point even ordering Israeli bombers to change course. While a worst-case scenario was avoided, Gulf leaders are now reassessing the landscape before taking further steps.
The report says Trump aims to use the ceasefire momentum to push more Arab states toward normalisation, building on the so-called Abraham Accords from his first term, which included the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.
Special envoy Steve Witkoff told CNBC that “one of the president’s key goals is expanding the Abraham Accords with new countries, and we’re working on that now. We hope to normalise ties with states nobody would have imagined joining.”
Yet major obstacles remain for any forward movement in the Gulf. Saudi officials have made clear they will not finalise any deal while war continues unresolved in Gaza, where over 56,000 people have been killed so far, according to Palestinian authorities, who have not specified the number of fighters among the dead.
A Saudi official told the WSJ bluntly, “It will take a lot of work — the space isn’t there right now. The urgent issue is Palestine, not the Iranian threat.”
This shifting regional calculus adds layers of complexity. US Congressman Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) said after meetings with leaders in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain during the Israeli-Iranian war that Israel’s military and intelligence operations have unsettled Arab states, who fear Tel Aviv might act unilaterally and beyond their influence.
“Israel has become a victim of its own success,” Nunn remarked, adding that Gulf leaders want assurances that Israel’s power will be used responsibly.
While working with Israel to contain Iran has grown more appealing for some Arab states in recent years — given that both Israel and the Gulf remain in range of Iran’s missiles and its support for armed factions across Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, and Yemen — recent events have reignited old anxieties.
Back in 2017, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman described Ayatollah Khamenei as the “new Hitler of the Middle East.” Around that time, a cartoon video circulated online depicting a Saudi amphibious invasion of Iran, ending with Saudi tanks rolling into Tehran.
The UAE and Bahrain famously broke a decade-old Arab boycott of Israel in 2020 over the Palestinian cause, normalising ties through Trump’s push. He tried to persuade Saudi Arabia to follow suit during his first term, but time ran out.
A 2023 tripartite deal negotiated by the Biden administration would have seen the US commit to defending Riyadh in case of attack, assist with a civilian nuclear program, including uranium enrichment, and gain access to Saudi airspace and territory to protect American interests, while imposing limits on Saudi-China security ties.
Gulf states, like Israel, have been targets of Iran and its proxies. In 2019, Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for drone and missile attacks on two of its largest oil facilities. Yemen’s Houthis repeatedly targeted Saudi cities and even struck near the royal palace in Riyadh in 2021. The UAE has faced drone and missile attacks linked to its role in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.
Fearing that escalating tensions could derail economic plans, both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi sought to hedge by reconciling with Tehran in 2023 — a geopolitical balancing act to avoid choosing sides.
Yet Israel’s new campaign against Iran is testing that fragile balance. While Gulf states welcome a weakened Iran, talk of regime change reminds them of America’s occupation of Iraq and the chaos that followed Saddam Hussein’s removal. Even with the ceasefire halting the Israeli-Iranian conflict for now, Saudi Arabia remains wary that Iran could remain politically unstable and capable of retaliation, Gulf officials say.
As Israel’s strikes intensify, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman have quietly helped pass messages between the US and Iran. Emirati foreign policy adviser Anwar Gargash travelled to Tehran in March to deliver a letter from Trump and later met with Khamenei’s brother in April to relay Riyadh’s opposition to military action against Iran’s nuclear program.
Those back-channel efforts ultimately fell short. On June 13, the Israeli-Iranian confrontation reached Riyadh’s doorstep. Gulf officials pressured Washington to rein in Israel, only to be reassured that the US would stay out of it.
While Saudi Arabia has benefited from the mounting US and Israeli pressure on Tehran, it fears becoming a bystander to a new regional order. “The fear is that Israel won’t weaken the Islamic Republic just to let the Saudis get stronger,” said Maria Fantappie, head of the Middle East and Africa program at the Institute of International Affairs in Rome.
Gulf states condemned the Israeli strikes on Iran as violations of Iranian sovereignty. They used similar language after Trump’s strikes last weekend but tempered their tone to avoid provoking the unpredictable president. Their caution regrouped after Iran retaliated with a missile strike on a US base in Qatar on Monday, with Gulf capitals coordinating messages of restraint to pave the way for the ceasefire.
Anwar Gargash summed up the contradiction: “This Israeli-Iranian war contradicts the regional order the Gulf wants to build — one that prioritises prosperity over conflict. If we try to tackle everything with force, nothing will be left unbroken.”
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