Despite the celebratory tone among Israeli leaders over alleged successes in damaging Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, growing concerns are beginning to surface over Tehran’s potential to make rapid advances toward acquiring a “basic bomb.” Israeli assessments also predict that Iran will likely avoid making meaningful concessions in upcoming negotiations with the United States, raising alarm over gaps in Israel’s own defence systems exposed during the latest confrontation.
Military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai, writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, stressed that if the ceasefire with Iran holds, the Israeli regime must immediately act across several critical fronts. “There’s a real risk that Iran could pursue a quick breakthrough to build a crude nuclear device — possibly a ‘dirty bomb’ — using the 60% enriched uranium it still possesses, along with hundreds of advanced centrifuges hidden in undisclosed locations,” he warned.
Ben-Yishai added that Iran may be deliberately buying time to allow its scientists to assemble a basic nuclear warhead capable of being mounted on a missile. If successful, this would grant Iran a level of nuclear deterrence, not on par with major powers, but enough to dissuade further aggression from Israel and the United States.
He emphasised the need to intensify intelligence gathering efforts through all available means to determine whether Israel’s declared military objectives were truly achieved, particularly regarding the disruption of Iran’s uranium enrichment sites. Key questions remain: how much highly enriched uranium is still in Iran’s possession, and could it be used to construct a bomb shortly?
The report also raised red flags about Iran’s missile and drone arsenal. While Tehran rarely deployed its full capabilities during the conflict, large segments of its ballistic missile force, cruise missiles, and UAV fleets remain intact, posing an ongoing threat to Israeli targets.
Another strategic concern involves Iran’s willingness to re-enter negotiations with the United States, and to what extent it might comply with demands to curtail its nuclear enrichment and missile programs. Of particular interest will be Iran’s attitude toward intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which Israel sees as vital for verifying the outcome of any future agreement.
Ben-Yishai warned that if Iran refuses to accept genuine limitations on its military and nuclear programs or resists full transparency, then Israeli authorities will have no choice but to reconsider their military approach. He estimated that both damage assessment and nuclear negotiations could take up to six months. If the results are deemed unsatisfactory — or if Iran stalls — then another round of military confrontation could become inevitable, possibly in coordination with the United States.
He further stressed that Israel must already begin closing critical gaps in its civil defence infrastructure. “If these vulnerabilities are not addressed, no Israeli government will be in a moral position to act forcefully against Iran. National resilience will suffer deeply,” he stated.
Regarding the nature of the recent ceasefire, Ben-Yishai noted that while details remain scarce, signs suggest that Iran’s leadership — led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — had signaled a desire for a “dignified” truce. Rather than surrendering in the conventional sense, Iran chose to indicate to both the U.S. and its Gulf neighbours that it did not wish to escalate further.
He concluded that the U.S. airstrikes likely hastened the end of hostilities. “Iran preferred to fold under American military pressure, which it viewed as more ‘honourable’ than appearing defeated by Israeli strikes. Surrendering to the so-called ‘Great Satan’ damages Iran’s prestige less than surrendering to the ‘Little Satan,’” he remarked.
