A day before Israel attacked Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was at the Knesset, welcoming Argentinian President Javier Milei with open arms.
“Argentina became a haven for thousands of Jews,” Netanyahu told the Israeli parliament.
“They sought refuge from economic hardship and antisemitic persecution. Not only in Eastern Europe, but also in the Ottoman Empire.
“An empire that I don’t think will be renewed anytime soon, even though there are those who disagree with me.”
The remarks, which were directed at Turkey and its long-serving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, were not lost on officials in Ankara.
A burgeoning regional power, Turkey has played an outsized role in the Middle East since the so-called Arab Spring uprisings of the 2010s.
Amid the new power dynamic that has taken shape in the region, Ankara has seen its stock increase in major western capitals.
Such has been its rise that on Thursday, Turkey was among a small group of US allies notified in advance that Israel would be launching its attack on Iran.
Hours later, early on Friday, Israel began its assault on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities, and started assassinating high-profile security, intelligence and military commanders, along with nuclear scientists. The unprecedented pace of the Israeli operation alarmed both Turkish officials and Turkish public opinion.
The attacks, which also targeted residential areas and civilian infrastructure, have so far killed more than 500 people and wounded at least 1,300, many of them civilians.
In response, Iran has fired barrages of missiles towards Haifa, Tel Aviv and other major Israeli cities.
Turkey has lamented the escalation, describing Israel’s assault as unprovoked, especially at a time when US intelligence suggested Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.
What upset Ankara most was not Israel’s well-known capabilities, but the fact that European countries supported the attack during high-level negotiations between the US and Iran over the nuclear dispute.
While the escalation has been characterised as sudden, and one that has caught many regional states by surprise, Ankara was long bracing for an Israeli attack on Iran.
In September, when Israel killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Turkish officials studied possible scenarios in the event of a severe Israeli attack and a potential wider regional conflict.
They prepared contingency plans, including measures against possible waves of refugees.
In October, Ankara also initiated negotiations with the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, to prevent the group from being used as a proxy by either Iran or Israel.
Israel-Turkey relations
Turkey has historically maintained good ties with Israel, despite ups and downs due to Israel’s wars with the region’s countries.
Turkey was the first Muslim country to recognise Israel, in 1949, and gradually became an ally of Tel Aviv in the 1990s, when the Turkish security apparatus needed its help to counter the PKK during a period of domestic instability.
Since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took power in 2003, the relationship has gradually deteriorated from a strategic partnership to that of neighbours who frequently confront each other over the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere.
Relations soured after Israel raided the Mavi Marmara ferry in 2010, killing 10 Turkish activists in international waters, but they later improved.
But tensions heightened again in late 2023 when Ankara decided to walk back from the rapprochement due to the war on Gaza, which Turkish officials believe constitutes a genocide.
Since Israel’s campaigns to degrade Hezbollah last year and the fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria, the region has been transformed by Netanyahu’s actions.
Where Iran once dominated, Israel is now increasingly the key regional power.
Israeli officials have publicly begun to state that the only other player with significant resources they face is Turkey.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has reiterated several times since December that the region should not be dominated by any single power, including Turkey itself.
The first significant challenge between Turkey and Israel was Syria, as Netanyahu’s government made sure to oppose any Turkish bases with radar and air defence installations in southern Syria.
American officials, worried about possible incidents, encouraged both countries to hold talks, resulting in the establishment of a hotline between Turkey and Israel in April.
Talks progressed to the point where Turkish officials included Syrian representatives in discussions with the Israelis, in the hope of finding a middle ground to stop Israeli attacks on Syrian territory.
The main issue was control of Syrian airspace. Ankara delayed its plans to quickly take control of the bases until the deconfliction talks with Israel were completed, effectively later giving Israel a window of opportunity to attack Iran.
For the Turks, this did not involve Turkish airspace. Turkish officials advised Israel to address its concerns over the airspace issues directly with Syria rather than Ankara.
Missile programme accelerating
For decades, Turkey has viewed Iran as a destabilising force and opposed Tehran’s ambitions to obtain a nuclear weapon.
However, Israel’s unilateral attack on Iran, which has failed to provide convincing evidence that Tehran is close to developing one, was seen by the Turkish public as a sign that Israel could one day target Turkey, a Nato ally deeply integrated into the western security architecture.
This sense of threat was echoed by the head of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli, a key ally of Erdogan.
On Tuesday, Bahçeli warned that Israel’s military campaign against Iran is part of a broader strategy to encircle Turkey and undermine its regional ambitions.
“The political and strategic goal of Israel is clear,” he said. “To surround Anatolia and sabotage Turkey’s path toward a terrorism-free future on behalf of its masters.”
To reassure the Turkish public, officials began leaking certain details to the media.
One Turkish columnist claimed that on the night of the initial attack, Turkish radars detected Israeli F-35s, prompting Turkey to scramble F-16s and AWACS early-warning aircraft to track the Israeli operation.
Another columnist claimed that some of the Israeli jets that took off for the attack unintentionally violated Turkish airspace on the same night, and left rapidly after Turkey scrambled F-16s and warned them by radio.
“This isn’t Turkey’s war,” said one Ankara insider close to the government.
“Yet it shows that we should study this attack in depth and take relevant steps to prepare us for any possible future risk and options.”
High-ranking Turkish officials held two rounds of security meetings to discuss further contingency plans. The Turkish military has also closely studied the war tactics employed by Israel.
Erdogan himself responded to the attack by calling regional leaders, and US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. He also made specific calls to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani, both of whom lead Turkey’s land neighbours.
Turkish readouts suggest Erdogan specifically advised them not to get involved in the recent escalation between Israel and Iran.
On Monday, Erdogan said that Turkey was accelerating its medium- and long-range ballistic missile programme and deepening its deterrence to make Turkey a country no one would dare to defy.
He vowed on Wednesday that Turkey would make its defence industry completely independent.
He later shared his speech on X, featuring the Ottoman Imperial seal, as Netanyahu referenced last week.
“The victorious army of the Ottoman Empire had a principle,” Erdogan said.
“If you want independence, if you want freedom, if you want to live on this land with your honour, dignity, and integrity, if you want economic prosperity, if you want abundance, wealth, and harmony, if you want peace, you must always be ready for war.”
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Source: MEE
