In an article published by Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli columnist Smadar Perry laid out a series of possible future scenarios for the Islamic Republic of Iran, in light of the ongoing and escalating conflict with Israel.
According to Perry, the recent deadly confrontations have brought forward what was once seen as pure political fantasy: the potential overthrow of Iran’s Islamic leadership and the collapse of the Ayatollah regime. However, she concedes that even if such a scenario seems closer today than ever before, the road ahead remains unclear, both in terms of available options and the unpredictable forces that shape a vast, complex country of 90 million people.
Israel’s Escalating Messaging Against the Iranian Leadership
Yesterday morning, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant tweeted:
“The storm continues to strike Tehran. Our air force has just destroyed the headquarters of Iran’s internal security — the core oppressive force of the Iranian dictatorship — and the notorious Basij militias responsible for crushing domestic uprisings. As we promised, we will continue targeting symbols of power and hitting the Ayatollah regime wherever it operates.”
While Israel has yet to officially declare regime change as a strategic objective under Operation “Rising Lion,” the article notes growing international awareness that such an outcome is part of Israel’s long-term ambitions. Yet, following disastrous regime-change operations by the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, much of the West views externally imposed leadership shifts as dangerous and destabilising.
As a result, several Israeli analysts and commentators are now speculating on alternative post-Ayatollah futures for Iran — if any are plausible.
Return of the Shah? Monarchist Fantasies Resurface
Some exiled Iranian groups and sympathisers imagine a return to pre-1979 monarchy, though it remains unclear how widespread this sentiment is within modern-day Iran.
Among the most visible figures in exile is Reza Pahlavi, 64, the son of the last Shah and grandson of the dynasty’s founder, Reza Shah. Though active in exile and popular among some diaspora circles, his prospects inside Iran are slim. His visibility in Western and Gulf Arab media and his lobbying efforts with U.S., European, and Saudi officials, have not translated into genuine domestic traction.
The article highlights that most Iranians today have no memory of life before the Islamic Revolution, and while some view that era with nostalgia, many also recall the deep inequality and repression under the Shah. Reza Pahlavi, exiled at 19 before his parents left Iran, now resides in the U.S., haunted by family tragedies — including the suicides of his sister and brother.
Despite rumours of him transferring tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars in assets from Iran to Western banks, he has remained politically inactive inside Iran. He claims the title of “crown prince” and heads an “Iranian government-in-exile” consisting of about 40 parties and organisations aimed at overthrowing the Islamic regime.
However, Iran’s reformist activists have dismissed him as “corrupt” and “greedy,” criticising his lack of experience in governing a complex nation. In Los Angeles — home to the largest Iranian exile community and his main base — he is still nicknamed “Shah of Shahs,” yet even prominent figures in that community give him little serious consideration.
The MEK: Resistance or Cult?
Another controversial opposition group is the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK). Founded in the 1970s as a far-left group opposing the Shah and U.S. imperialism, it has since evolved into a secretive, militant organisation that remains deeply polarising among Iranians.
Although the MEK was the first to expose Iran’s covert nuclear enrichment program in 2002, it has lost ground domestically and is often accused of acting more like a cult than a political organisation. Critics point to its authoritarian internal structure and over-ambitious aspirations to seize power.
Importantly, most of its members are Sunni Muslims — in stark contrast to Iran’s ruling Shiite elite — and the group officially advocates for a secular, nuclear-free Iran. MEK leader Massoud Rajavi hasn’t been seen publicly in over two decades; his wife, Maryam Rajavi, now leads from exile in France.
A 2012 NBC investigation revealed that MEK agents had been trained by Israel’s Mossad to use motorcycles and explosives. In return, MEK operatives allegedly provided intelligence on Iranian internal affairs.
Ethnic Minorities: Kurds, Baloch, and the Fragmented Map of Opposition
Although Persians make up only around 48% of Iran’s population, they dominate the central apparatus of the Islamic Republic — even though Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is ethnically Azerbaijani.
Other ethnic groups, especially Sunni Muslim minorities like the Kurds (around 10% of the population) and Baloch, have long-standing tensions with the regime. Both communities have active opposition groups abroad and receive varying levels of support from Sunni networks, particularly in neighbouring Pakistan.
However, unlike Kurdish movements in Turkey and Iraq, Iranian Kurds have weak ties with Israel. There have only been two reported meetings in which both sides attempted to gauge each other’s intentions. The Iranian Kurds and Baloch have been involved in more aggressive anti-government demonstrations, particularly after the death of Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in police custody in 2022.
Despite waves of mass protests in the Kurdish and Baloch regions, the article notes that neither group has managed to organise a unified opposition movement strong enough to threaten Tehran’s grip.
The Reformist Wave: A Flicker of Hope or a Spent Force?
The final — and arguably most significant — force of potential change lies in Iran’s fragmented reformist movement. Composed mostly of young people aged 18–40, these protesters have sporadically taken to the streets over the past two decades, peaking in 2009 and again in 2022 after Amini’s death.
While the West continues to place hope in a popular uprising that could snowball into a nationwide movement, no such mobilisation has occurred since Israel’s airstrikes on Iran began. The regime has reportedly arrested or killed nearly 10,000 young people in recent months, and public squares now remain empty.
Opposition groups in exile are now calling on Iranians to gather outside Evin Prison — infamous for housing political detainees — in hopes of sparking a large-scale counter-revolution. But even if such efforts gain momentum, it remains uncertain whether they can unify behind a viable alternative leadership. Many Iranians view exiled opposition leaders as disconnected, or even traitorous.
Khamenei Stays — and His Son Waits in the Shadows
Despite health issues, age, and the constant threat to his life, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei remains in power. At 86, he is one of the oldest leaders in the Muslim world, alongside Mahmoud Abbas.
According to insiders, Khamenei plans for his son, Mojtaba Khamenei (55), to succeed him. Over the years, he has carefully introduced his son to the regime’s inner workings. Mojtaba once supported hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and later supervised the Basij paramilitary units that suppressed major protests.
However, he lacks formal religious credentials — a potential disqualifier in the eyes of the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body responsible for selecting Iran’s supreme leader.
Recent assassinations of high-ranking Iranian officials have also weakened Mojtaba’s alliances. Still, analysts speculate that these very purges may be clearing the way for his eventual rise — even without the traditional religious qualifications once deemed essential.
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