For years, Israel and its neoconservative allies in the United States have pushed for a war with Iran—a war neither nation can decisively win, and one that would provoke massive retaliatory consequences across the region.
The same neocon architects who orchestrated the disastrous wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya—burning through over $8 trillion in U.S. taxpayer money, plus another $69 billion on Ukraine—now appear eager to lead the world into another strategic catastrophe, this time targeting Iran.
But Iran is not Iraq. Nor is it Afghanistan, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, or Yemen. It is the 17th largest country in the world, geographically equivalent to Western Europe, with a population nearing 90 million—nearly ten times that of Israel. Iran possesses vast military resources, a formidable ballistic missile program, and strategic alliances with both China and Russia, making it a far more formidable adversary than any target of past Western interventions.
Retaliation Has Already Begun
Following waves of Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and assassinations of high-ranking military officials and nuclear scientists, Iran launched a historic retaliation, striking Israeli military and intelligence sites with hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles.
Explosions were recorded over Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and surrounding areas. Ground footage captured a massive blast in Tel Aviv—believed to be from a missile—and additional explosions were reported at half a dozen sites.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters:
“Our retaliation has just begun. They will pay a heavy price for killing our leaders, our scientists, and our people. No place in Israel will be safe. Our revenge will be painful.”
The War-Lust of the Neocons
Former British diplomat and MI6 officer Alastair Crooke noted:
“The neocons believe war will be easy. They want to reassert American dominance. Crushing a small country here and there helps their cause.”
These neocons—closely aligned with Netanyahu’s government—cannot tolerate competing powers or any challenge to U.S. hegemony. They seek to manufacture “facts on the ground” by igniting a direct Israel-Iran war that would push Trump toward full-scale confrontation with Tehran.
Iran’s Military Reality vs. Western Assumptions
Despite its aging air force, Iran is well-equipped with Russian air defense systems, Chinese anti-ship missiles, naval mines, and coastal artillery. It can shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil route, through which 20% of global oil supply flows.
Such an act would likely double or triple oil prices, crippling global markets.
Iran also possesses a massive ballistic missile arsenal, capable of striking Israel and U.S. bases across the region. While initial waves may be intercepted, sustained missile barrages would quickly deplete Israeli and American air defenses.
Why Israel Cannot Endure a Prolonged War
Israel is ill-prepared for a long war of attrition. History proves this—whether the eight-year Iran-Iraq War, which ended in a stalemate despite U.S. support for Saddam, or the 18-year occupation of South Lebanon, which concluded in a humiliating withdrawal in May 2000 after sustained resistance by Hezbollah.
In April 2023, during Operation True Promise, Iran fired over 300 ballistic and cruise missiles at Israeli military installations in retaliation for the bombing of its embassy in Damascus. While the U.S. intercepted many of them, it was a strategic show of force.
Political scientist John Mearsheimer, a West Point graduate and professor at the University of Chicago, observed:
“Israel cannot withstand a full Iranian missile strike. It cannot win these wars, yet insists on prolonging them—heavily dependent on U.S. military support.”
Mearsheimer continued:
“We have extensive assets across the Middle East, including in the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and inside Israel itself—all aimed at supporting Tel Aviv. This wasn’t the case in 1973. Today, we’re deeply entangled.”
The Illusion of Airstrikes—and the Reality of Resistance
Israel and its U.S. backers naïvely believe they can destroy Iran’s nuclear program through airstrikes and decapitate its leadership, replacing it with a client regime. This delusional logic has already failed—in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria.
Meanwhile, Israel is also seeking to divert global attention from its ongoing genocide in Gaza and accelerated ethnic cleansing in the West Bank. The complete internet blackout in Gaza and the siege on the West Bank underscore a larger strategy of concealment.
Mearsheimer warned:
“If a broader escalation unfolds, attention will shift away from Palestinians. The chaos will provide Israel cover to pursue mass expulsions in Gaza—and potentially the West Bank too.”
A Wider War: The Risks of Regional Explosion
A full-scale Iranian response would trigger devastating regional consequences:
- Mobilisation of Shia communities across the region, including in Gulf states, Iraq, Turkey, and Pakistan
- Support from Iraq’s majority-Shia government
- Disruption of Red Sea shipping by the Houthis
- Renewed Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel
- Drone strikes on U.S. bases, and possibly even on U.S. soil
- Sabotage of oil infrastructure across the Gulf
Iran is believed to be close to accumulating enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. War may become the final push to break the threshold—especially since Israel possesses hundreds of nuclear warheads. If Iran goes nuclear, Turkey and other Arab nations may follow, triggering a collapse of the non-proliferation framework in the region.
A New Axis—and a New Reality
As Mearsheimer highlights, this conflict is cementing a powerful anti-Western alliance:
“The U.S. has driven China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran closer than ever. Ukraine pushed Russia and China together; the Middle East war is bringing Iran into the fold.”
This emerging Eurasian bloc, supported militarily by Russia and economically by China, is a direct challenge to Western unipolarity.
Mearsheimer warned:
“It’s not in America’s interest to drive Russia and Iran together against Israel and Washington. But that’s exactly what is happening.”
An Unwinnable War
Any serious effort to subjugate Iran would require up to one million U.S. troops, and would end in defeat—much like Iraq and Afghanistan.
Israel’s belief that it can destroy Iran through “shock and awe” air campaigns, akin to the 2003 Iraq invasion, is a fantasy. The amount of firepower required to penetrate Iran’s hardened nuclear sites is staggering.
Even during operations against Hezbollah, Israel used 2,000 lb JDAM bunker-busters. As Crooke noted:
“An F-35 loaded with JDAMs weighs nearly 14 tons. You’d need mid-air refueling, air superiority, and radar suppression. It’s a massive operation. Can the U.S. even pull it off? Iran’s layered air defenses and over-the-horizon radar make it incredibly difficult.”
So Why Go to War With Iran?
Why abandon a nuclear deal that Iran didn’t violate? Why demonise a government that opposes extremist groups like Taliban, ISIS, and al-Qaeda? Why destabilise an already fragile region?
The answer: accountability avoidance.
U.S. generals, politicians, intelligence officials, neocons, arms manufacturers, pundits, and the Israel lobby refuse to accept responsibility for two decades of military failure. They need a scapegoat—and they’ve chosen Iran.
It was their wars—especially in Iraq and Afghanistan—that empowered Iran. Now they seek to undo their mistakes with bombs.
But the people of Iran, regardless of political stance, do not see the United States as a liberator. They will resist. And we, and Israel, will pay the price.
This work demands time, pressure, and sacrifice.
But we do it—for the Ummah, and for the truth.
If you believe in this mission, stand with us.
